Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Laura – Final Advisory Issued 8-28-2020 – 2020 Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Laura

Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:37:25 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28 - Atlantic Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28

000
WTNT33 KNHC 090837
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

...RESILIENT LESLIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 47.8W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 47.8 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight reduction in
forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is
forecast during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated today and
tonight, followed by weakening through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NHC Forecast Advisory on Laura

Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:36:22 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane LESLIE Forecast/Advisory Number... - Atlantic Hurricane LESLIE Forecast/Advisory Number 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W...Post-Tropical MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 47.8W NEXT Advisory AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

166
WTNT23 KNHC 090836
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 47.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

NHC Discussion on Laura

Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:37:52 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28 - Atlantic Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28

000
WTNT43 KNHC 090837
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

Conventional satellite imagery shows that Leslie's cloud pattern has
changed little during the past few hours. Earlier SSMIS and AMSU-B
microwaves overpasses, however, indicated that Leslie's structure
has become vertically tilted southeast to northwest, indicative of
the previously mentioned mid-level southerly shear component. A
blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB and a 0610 UTC UW-CIMSS 72 kt SATCON analysis yield an
initial intensity at 70 kt.

Although the undercutting shear is expected to persist, slight
intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight while Leslie
moves through a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment and
over warm oceanic surface temperatures. Afterward, the global
models show an upper-tropospheric anticyclone developing over the SW
Atlantic, between Milton and Leslie. This feature is expected to
spread moderate northerly shear over the central subtropical
Atlantic inhibiting ventilation aloft over the north portion of the
cyclone. Consequently, weakening is expected, and Leslie is
forecast to quickly lose its associated convection and become a
post-tropical cyclone in 3 days.

Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, 310/9 kt,
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next
couple of days. By mid-period, the cyclone is forecast to slow in
forward speed and turn toward the north while rounding the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast.
Afterward, Leslie should accelerate and turn toward the northeast in
response to a major shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from
the northeast. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and is
based on a compromise of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on 2354 UTC METOP-B and 0049
UTC METOP-C scatterometer passes.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 21.2N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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