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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

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Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

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Laura – Final Advisory Issued 8-28-2020 – 2020 Hurricane Season

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ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Laura as of 8-28-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.

NHC Important Links:
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NHC Public Advisory on Laura
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:37:43 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 2 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 2

    000
    WTNT33 KNHC 230237
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
    1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE
    TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
    ...LOTS OF TIME TO MONITOR...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...10.2N 35.0W
    ABOUT 1955 MI...3150 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
    Eighteen was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 35.0 West.
    The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and
    this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday.
    A slower motion toward the west-northwest is expected later on
    Friday and continuing into the weekend.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
    depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. It is then
    forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg

NHC Forecast Advisory on Laura
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:37:43 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN Forecast/Adv... - Atlantic Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN Forecast/Advisory Number 2 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 35.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 35.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 34.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.4N 37.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.9N 39.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.0N 44.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.6N 46.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.2N 47.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 14.5N 50.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 35.0W NEXT Advisory AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

    000
    WTNT23 KNHC 230237
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
    0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 35.0W AT 23/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 35.0W AT 23/0300Z
    AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 34.4W

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.4N 37.0W
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.9N 39.6W
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.1W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.0N 44.3W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.6N 46.0W
    MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
    34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

    FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.2N 47.5W
    MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 14.5N 50.2W
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.3W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 35.0W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG


NHC Discussion on Laura
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:42 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2

    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 230238
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
    1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

    The depression's organization has not improved since earlier this
    afternoon. An analysis of the ambiguities from 0000 UTC ASCAT-B
    data suggests that the surface circulation is just barely closed,
    with the center still attached to the northern end of a trough.
    Peak wind retrievals from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt, so
    the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

    Based on the ASCAT data, the depression appears to be moving just
    north of due west, or 275/13 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging to the
    north is expected to maintain the cyclone on a westward heading for
    the next 36 hours, followed by a path toward the west-northwest
    from day 2 through day 5. The more notable part of the forecast is
    the forward speed. Global models are showing anomalously strong
    500-mb ridging developing over the eastern and central Caribbean
    Sea in 2 to 3 days, which is likely to block the depression's
    forward progress toward the end of the forecast period. In fact,
    the current NHC forecast has the system moving west-northwestward
    at only 7 or 8 kt well east of the Lesser Antilles on days 3 through
    5. All this means that it will probably be a few more days before
    we have a better idea if and how the system might potentially
    threaten areas farther west. For the 5-day forecast period, there
    is a normal amount of spread among the track guidance, and the
    updated NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA
    consensus aids. This solution is not too different from the
    previous forecast.

    Overall, an environment of low shear, warm sea surface
    temperatures, and a moist, unstable atmosphere appears conducive
    for strengthening. However, there is some sort of signal being
    conveyed by the global models (e.g., the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET)
    whereby the cyclone's surface circulation does not really tighten
    up for another 24 to 48 hours. Given the system's current
    structure, this scenario seems plausible. Therefore, the updated
    NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening during
    the first 48 hours, just a bit below the intensity consensus in
    deference to the global model solutions. After 48 hours, the
    official forecast converges on top of the previous NHC forecast and
    still brings the cyclone to hurricane, and then possibly major
    hurricane, strength by the end of the forecast period.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/0300Z 10.2N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 23/1200Z 10.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
    24H 24/0000Z 10.9N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
    36H 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 25/0000Z 12.0N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
    60H 25/1200Z 12.6N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
    72H 26/0000Z 13.2N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 27/0000Z 14.5N 50.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
    120H 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Berg

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

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