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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Mon, 23 May 2022 11:21:17 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 231121
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Southeastern United States:
  An area of low pressure moved inland overnight along the
  north-central Gulf of Mexico coast, and is now located over
  south-central Alabama. The low is expected to continue to move
  over land today, and tropical cyclone development is not expected.
  However, locally heavy rains associated with this system will
  continue to spread northeastward across portions of the
  southeastern United States over the next day or so. Additional
  information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
  products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
  Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
  Prediction Center.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Pasch
  

• Mon, 23 May 2022 10:37:12 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 231037
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1205 UTC Mon May 23 2022
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1030 UTC.
  
  ...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
  An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W from 12N southward,
  moving westward 15 knots. This feature remains poorly organized
  and drier air associated with Saharan dust is preventing any
  shower or thunderstorm activity near the wave axis.
  
  A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 15N southward,
  moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
  convection is evident over eastern Venezuela near the wave axis.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
  near 10N14W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 00N48W.
  Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 10W
  and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is also evident from 00N to
  05N between 44W and 50W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  Squalls associated with a small but vigorous low pressure area
  that went ashore over the western Florida Panhandle overnight
  delivered a peak wind of 48 kt to Pensacola, Florida. Latest
  observations show SW winds off the coast of the western Florida
  Panhandle and the Alabama coast gradually diminishing as the low
  moves farther inland.
  
  Farther south, clusters of strong thunderstorms were active
  across much of the west-central Gulf. This was related with a
  negatively tilted trough in the mid to upper levels of the
  atmosphere moving across the northwest Gulf. Outflows from these
  thunderstorms brought gusts to gale force across much of the west-
  central Gulf. Buoy 42055 located at 22N94W registered a brief
  sustained wind to 35 kt under a convective cell late yesterday
  evening. Per buoy reports and an altimeter satellite pass, wave
  heights increased to 10 ft over parts of the western Gulf
  overnight due to the convective winds. The thunderstorms have
  since dissipated and winds and seas are rapidly subsiding over the
  western Gulf accordingly.
  
  Meanwhile, a frontal boundary has stalled from southeast
  Louisiana to the mouth of the Rio Grande, and will likely start to
  dissipate today. Farther east, a surface trough reaches from the
  western Florida Panhandle to just off the northwest Yucatan
  Peninsula. A new cluster of convection is starting to develop
  over the north- central Gulf near 26N90W, where the upper trough
  is interacting with the surface trough. Moderate E to SE winds and
  4 to 6 ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf, with slightly
  higher winds and seas over the Straits of Florida.
  
  For the forecast, rough seas over parts of the western Gulf are
  associated with outflows from strong thunderstorms that were
  active over the central Gulf but are diminishing currently,
  allowing the wave heights to subside through the morning. Farther
  east, the trough reaching from Pensacola, Florida to the
  northwest Yucatan Peninsula will move to the northwest of the area
  through tonight. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE
  winds Tue and Wed with moderate seas. Looking ahead, a cold front
  is expected to move into the western Gulf Thu and weaken as it
  reaches from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It
  will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to
  moderate seas Fri.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  The main drivers impacting Caribbean weather continue to be a
  strong subtropical ridge north of the area and lower pressure over
  the eastern Pacific and southern Mexico. Scatterometer satellite
  passes from the past several hours show fresh to strong E winds
  off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia, as well as a large
  area of fresh E winds over the northwest Caribbean. Concurrent
  ship observations and an altimeter satellite pass confirmed 8 to
  10 ft seas were still present over the central Caribbean. Buoy
  observations indicate 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere. This pattern shows
  there is a subtle weakening trend in place with the areal extent
  of the strong winds and rough seas decreasing from earlier. This
  is indicative of a weaker pressure pattern setting up, to include
  a weaker ridge to the north and rising pressure over Central
  America. Nonetheless, there is still enough low level moisture
  and convergence to support clusters of heavy rainfall across much
  of the Northern Triangle areas of Central America and into
  southern Mexico. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts that are
  issued by your local or national meteorological agency for more
  information concerning rainfall in these areas.
  
  For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish some today and
  tonight, then more on Tue as the gradient weakens. Fresh to
  strong east to southeast winds will continue to pulse over the
  Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia through the latter part of the
  week.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  The subtropical ridge extends east to west along 31N/32N west of
  55W, anchored by 1024 mb high pressure near 31N68W. This is
  supporting moderate to fresh E trade winds south of 24N and west
  of 70W with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters, and gentle to moderate
  breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere west of 55W. Farther east, a
  cold front reaches from 31N44W to 25N57W to 26N65W. Moderate NW
  winds follow the front, along with 4 to 6 ft seas in NW swell.
  Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted off the
  African coast north of 20N. Elsewhere gentle to moderate breezes
  and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted. Saharan Air and suspended dust cover
  much of the trade wind region and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
  
  For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure extending along
  31N/32N will remain nearly stationary through Tue while it
  gradually weakens. It will shift eastward Thu through Fri night
  ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S.
  The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to
  moderate winds across the region through the period, except for
  pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds between Hispaniola and the
  southeastern Bahamas. Moderate northeast swell may impact the
  waters east of 60W through Tue, then subside into Wed.
  
  $$
  Christensen
  

• Tue, 24 May 2022 23:21:17 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
• Mon, 23 May 2022 11:21:17 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 231121
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Southeastern United States:
  An area of low pressure moved inland overnight along the
  north-central Gulf of Mexico coast, and is now located over
  south-central Alabama. The low is expected to continue to move
  over land today, and tropical cyclone development is not expected.
  However, locally heavy rains associated with this system will
  continue to spread northeastward across portions of the
  southeastern United States over the next day or so. Additional
  information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
  products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
  Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
  Prediction Center.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Pasch
  

• Thu, 31 Mar 2022 13:00:59 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 311300
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   0900 AM EDT THU 31 MARCH 2022
   SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
            VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2022
            WSPOD NUMBER.....21-121
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS
          DICTATE OTHERWISE.
   
   $$
   SEF
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Wed, 01 Dec 2021 12:30:41 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011230
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Wed Dec 1 2021
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  No tropical cyclones formed in the basin during November. However,
  Tropical Storm Wanda continued from the end of October through the
  first seven days of November. Based on a 30-year climatology
  (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one to two
  years.
  
  Overall, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
  activity. Twenty-one named storms formed, of which seven became
  hurricanes and four became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher
  on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the
  long-term averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major
  hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which
  measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and
  hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2021 was also above normal,
  about 20 percent above the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2021&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Ana 22-23 May 45*
  TS Bill 14-15 Jun 65*
  TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
  TS Danny 27-29 Jun 45*
  H Elsa 1- 9 Jul 85
  TS Fred 11-17 Aug 65*
  MH Grace 13-21 Aug 125
  H Henri 16-23 Aug 75
  MH Ida 26 Aug- 1 Sep 150
  TS Kate 28 Aug- 1 Sep 45
  TS Julian 28-30 Aug 60*
  MH Larry 31 Aug-11 Sep 125
  TS Mindy 8-10 Sep 45
  H Nicholas 12-16 Sep 75
  TS Odette 17-18 Sep 45*
  TS Peter 19-22 Sep 50
  TS Rose 19-23 Sep 50
  MH Sam 22 Sep- 5 Oct 150
  STS Teresa 24-25 Sep 45
  TS Victor 29 Sep- 4 Oct 65
  TS Wanda 31 Oct- 7 Nov 50
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit