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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2022 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:23:02 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    843
    ABNT20 KNHC 041735
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    200 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
    Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with an
    area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
    the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined, and the
    associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become more
    concentrated near the low's center. A short-lived tropical
    depression is likely to form later today or tonight before
    upper-level winds increase and become too hostile for further
    development on Wednesday. The low is forecast to move
    northwestward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic
    during the next couple of days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

    East of the Windward Islands:
    A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east
    of the southern Windward Islands is producing an area of showers
    and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined center.
    Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for
    development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
    couple of days, if the system stays far enough away from land while
    moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
    southeastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to become more
    conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
    the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
    locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions
    of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
    Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
    Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
    Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this
    system.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Bann

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:55:10 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    685
    AXNT20 KNHC 041741
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    A broad low pressure system located near 14N29.5W or a few hundred
    miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
    a large area of showers and thunderstorms. A cluster of moderate
    to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of low center.
    A band-like of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
    is to the E of the low center from 08N to 17N between 24W and
    28W. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for
    development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
    the next day or so while moving northwestward at about 5 to 10 kt
    over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected
    to become less conducive for development by Wednesday and Thursday.
    Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds associated
    with this system, that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
    through 48 hours. An area of 6 to 8 ft seas surrounds the low center,
    especially in the SW flow to the S of it. Please refer to the
    latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
    details.

    Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived wind data
    suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be forming in
    association with the tropical wave located along 56W or a few
    hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the
    wave is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds,
    conditions could become more conducive for a tropical depression
    to form while moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt, crossing the
    Windward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to
    become more conducive for development later this week when the
    system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless
    of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
    expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and
    Wednesday. Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and
    the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of
    this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
    currently enroute to investigate this system. Currently, satellite
    imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
    within about 150 nm S semicircle of low center. Based on recent
    scatterometer data, an area of fresh to strong winds is just N of
    the low center covering the waters from 11N to 16N between 53W
    and 57W where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Similar winds are
    also noted within about 180 nm SE quadrant, with higher wind
    speeds in and near the convective activity. This system has now a
    medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48
    hours, and through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
    Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast
    of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W, then continues WNW to a1008 mb low
    pressure located near 14N29.5W to to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues
    from 08N42W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 01N to 08N between 20W and 24W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A dry reinforcing cold front is moving across the NE Gulf. Moderate
    NE winds follow the front. A surface trough is analyzed from near
    20N91W, northwestward to inland Mexico near Tampico. Elsewhere,
    relatively weak high pressure dominates the region supporting
    gentle to moderate northeast winds. Seas throughout are in the 1-3
    ft range. SW to W upper-level flow is advecting multilayer clouds
    across Mexico into the northern Gulf.

    For the forecast, the front will drift south across the eastern
    Gulf and dissipate through tonight. High pressure north of the
    area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to
    moderate seas through Thu. Looking ahead, another front will move
    into the northern Gulf Fri, and stall across the central Gulf
    Sat. Expect fresh NE to E winds across the southeast Gulf late Fri
    and Sat between high pressure north of the front and lower pressure
    in the Caribbean Sea.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
    tropical wave, an associated low pressure, located east of the
    southern Windward Islands.

    A surface trough remains over the west-central Caribbean and
    extends from 29N79W to 10N80W. Light to gentle winds are on either
    side of the trough axis. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are associated with this feature, affecting mainly
    the waters from 12N to 18N between 78W and 84W. Scattered showers
    are also seen over the Lesser Antilles, mainly S of Guadeloupe.
    Mainly light to gentle trade winds dominate the basin, with the
    exception of moderate trades across the ABC Islands, and in the
    Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft
    over the south-central Caribbean, with the highest seas near the
    coast of Colombia.

    For the forecast, an area of low pressure located east of the
    Windward Islands will move across the Caribbean through Sat,
    accompanied by strong winds and rough seas. Some slow development
    of this system is possible during the next several days while the
    wave moves generally westward. Interests in the Windward Islands
    should monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to
    moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across
    the basin through late Wed. Fresh northeast winds then develop out
    ahead of the tropical wave through Sat night.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please read the Special Features section on potential tropical
    cyclone development in the eastern Atlantic Basin.

    A stationary front extends from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas. A cold
    front follows it and stretches from 31N75W to inland central
    Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly
    winds are noted per scatterometer data in the wake of the cold
    front with seas of 6 to 8 ft. A narrow band of showers with
    embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the stationary front within
    about 60 nm E of a line from 30N68W to 25N70W to 22N74W. A 1021 mb
    high is located near 29N50W while another high pressure center of
    1024 mb is just N of the Madeira Islands. Under the influence of
    these systems, mainly light to gentle winds are observed with seas
    of 2 to 4 ft.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
    through mid week. The cold front will stall from Bermuda to the
    southern Bahamas through Thu.

    $$
    GR

Active Tropical Systems

  • Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:23:02 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    843
    ABNT20 KNHC 041735
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    200 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
    Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with an
    area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
    the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined, and the
    associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become more
    concentrated near the low's center. A short-lived tropical
    depression is likely to form later today or tonight before
    upper-level winds increase and become too hostile for further
    development on Wednesday. The low is forecast to move
    northwestward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic
    during the next couple of days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

    East of the Windward Islands:
    A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east
    of the southern Windward Islands is producing an area of showers
    and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined center.
    Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for
    development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
    couple of days, if the system stays far enough away from land while
    moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
    southeastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to become more
    conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
    the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
    locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions
    of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
    Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
    Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
    Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this
    system.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Bann

  • Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:23:02 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:55:15 GMT

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Tue, 04 Oct 2022 16:25:40 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     562 
     NOUS42 KNHC 041625
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1225 PM EDT TUE 04 OCTOBER 2022
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z OCTOBER 2022
              TCPOD NUMBER.....22-131
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS)
            FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
            A. 05/2330Z,06/0530Z          A. 06/1130Z,1730Z
            B. AFXXX 0412A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0512A CYCLONE
            C. 05/2145Z                   C. 06/0945Z
            D. 12.0N 62.8W                D. 12.4N 66.0W
            E. 05/2300Z TO 06/0530Z       E. 06/1100Z TO 06/1730Z
            F. SFC TO 10.000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
            G. FIX                        G. FIX
     
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
            DEVELOPS.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Sat, 01 Oct 2022 11:56:18 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011156
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during September
    was above normal in terms of the number of named storms,
    hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Six named storms formed in the
    basin during September with four of those becoming hurricanes, and
    two becoming major hurricanes. One unnamed tropical depression
    also formed. Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), four or
    five named storms typically develop in September, with three of
    them becoming hurricanes, and one of those becoming a major
    hurricane.

    Fiona made landfall in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the
    Turks and Caicos Islands as a hurricane, and affected Atlantic
    Canada as a powerful post-tropical cyclone. Ian made two landfalls
    as a major hurricane, one in western Cuba and one along the
    southwest coast of Florida, and another landfall as a hurricane in
    South Carolina.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
    the basin so far in 2022 is slightly below average. Despite the
    slow start to the season, September activity increased ACE to 85
    percent of the long-term median value through the end of the month.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70
    TS Bonnie 1-2 Jul 50
    TS Colin 2-3 Jul 40
    H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
    H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
    MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
    TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
    MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
    TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
    TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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