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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Mon, 16 Jan 2023 15:02:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 161502
  TWOAT
  
  Special Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
  subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.
  
  Northwestern Atlantic:
  A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
  Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
  storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
  thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
  mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
  northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
  much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
  Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
  subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
  expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
  so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
  can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
  Service.
  
  No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
  this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
  resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
  be issued as necessary during the off-season.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
  
  &&
  High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
  found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
  online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
  
  $$
  Forecaster Cangialosi
  

• Mon, 06 Feb 2023 17:51:31 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  615
  AXNT20 KNHC 061751
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1805 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1730 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:
  
  The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western
  Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower
  surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue
  to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south
  central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night
  through late this week. The sea heights are forecast to range
  from 9 feet to 11 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest
  wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
  Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
  more details.
  
  Atlantic Ocean GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:
  
  A 994 mb low pressure center is near 34N71W. A cold front
  extends from the 994 mb low pressure center, through 31N71W, to
  27N73W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas. Precipitation:
  scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 240 nm
  to the east and southeast of the cold front.
  Gale-force SW winds, and sea heights that range from 11 feet to
  13 feet, are from 29N to 31N between 67W and 72W. Moderate to
  fresh NE winds are to the north of the line that runs from the
  coast of Africa at 20N, to 22N31W to 24N50W. Near gale-force NE
  winds are from 12N to 21N between 29W and 50W. Strong NE winds
  cover the areas that are from 06N to 26N from 50W eastward.
  Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N northward from 26W
  eastward. Fresh to strong easterly winds are between 50W and
  60W. Strong to near gale-force SE winds have been covering the
  Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 60W to the approaching
  cold front. Fresh to strong SE winds have been elsewhere from
  60W westward away from the front. The sea heights of 8 feet and
  higher are reaching the coastal waters of South America between
  40W and 60W. The sea heights of 8 feet and higher also are
  nearly everywhere from 20N northward from 60W westward, away
  from the Bahamas. The sea heights of 4 feet or lower are in the
  Bahamas. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
  information.
  
  Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
  
  The SW Atlantic Ocean stationary front has dissipated. Large and
  long-period swell has been covering the Atlantic Ocean from 25N
  northward between 40W and 60W. The comparatively highest sea
  heights that have been ranging from 14 feet to 17 feet have been
  near 30N between 40W and 46W. The sea heights are 18 feet and
  higher from 31N northward. The swell direction is N to NW, with
  a period that has been ranging from 12 seconds to 16 seconds.
  Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the north of the line that
  runs from the coast of Africa at 20N, to 22N31W to 24N50W. Near
  gale-force NE winds are from 12N to 21N between 29W and 50W.
  Strong NE winds cover the areas that are from 06N to 26N from
  50W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N northward
  from 26W eastward. Fresh to strong easterly winds are between
  50W and 60W. Strong to near gale-force SE winds have been
  covering the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 60W to the
  approaching cold front. Fresh to strong SE winds have been
  elsewhere from 60W westward away from the front. Please, read
  the latest High Seas Forecast, at
  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
  information.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
  near 10N14W, curving to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W,
  to crossing the Equator along 22W, to 01S25W and 01S31W.
  Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to
  the south of the line 08N at the coast of Africa, to 07N26W 05N41W
  05N52W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
  north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area near
  21N97W in the coastal plains of Mexico. The sea heights have
  been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern half of the
  area, and they have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet in the
  western half of the area. Gentle to moderate winds have been in
  the western half of the area. Gentle winds or slower have been
  in the eastern half of the area.
  
  High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will move eastward
  during the next few days. Southerly return flow will increase to
  fresh to locally strong tonight into early Tue in the western
  Gulf, with fresh winds spreading to the remainder of the Gulf
  Tue. Strong winds also will develop off NW Cuba and the NW
  Yucatan Tue night into early Wed. A cold front will enter the
  western Gulf on Wed with strong N winds possible behind it off S
  Texas and Mexico, and quickly diminishing as the front reaches
  the central Gulf early Thu. A stronger cold front will enter the
  Gulf late Thu into Fri with near gale-force winds in the SW Gulf.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
  GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING that has been issued for the coastal
  waters of Colombia.
  
  Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
  imagery, covering the much of the Caribbean Sea. The exception
  is in the SE corner of the area.
  
  A surface trough curves from northern Colombia, through 14N80W,
  through NW Cuba, and into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
  Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either
  side of the trough.
  
  Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are in the Atlantic Ocean,
  to the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Those same
  winds have been in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea,
  and in the northern half of the central one-third of the
  Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are in the
  southern half of the central one-third of the area. Moderate to
  fresh NE winds have been in the southern two-thirds of the
  western one-third of the area. The sea heights have been ranging
  from 7 feet to 10 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, and in
  parts of the SW corner. The sea heights have been ranging from 6
  feet to 8 feet in the eastern one-third of the area, and from 2
  feet to 4 feet in the western one-third of the area.
  
  The subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain a strong
  pressure gradient across the central Caribbean Sea through the
  week. Strong easterly winds will continue in the south central
  Caribbean, Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into
  late this week. Seas will build to near 13 ft
  during the strongest winds. Winds will increase in the Windward
  Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras late Tue through late
  this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly winds will
  also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the
  eastern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
  GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING and the ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL
  EVENT.
  
  A stationary front is along 31N45W to 30N52W. Precipitation:
  isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the
  stationary front. A 1041 mb high pressure center is near 40N43W.
  
  The rest of the information about the Atlantic Ocean is in the
  SPECIAL FEATURES section.
  
  Rapidly strengthening 994 mb low pressure near 34N71W is moving
  NE away from the area. A cold front extends from the low to
  31N71W to 28N72W to Andros Island, Bahamas. Gale-force S to SW
  winds are present N 29N and within 180 nm E of the cold front.
  As the low pres moves farther away, gale force winds will end E
  of the front late this afternoon or early this evening. The cold
  front will sweep across the Atlantic over the next couple of
  days, reaching from near 27N55W to the SE Bahamas Wed morning.
  Strong wind speeds will continue north of 28N on both sides of
  the
  front through Tue night. Large swell will build in Wed behind
  the front and spread southward across the basin through late
  week.
  
  $$
  mt/ah
  
  

• Tue, 17 Jan 2023 09:51:06 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

• Mon, 06 Feb 2023 18:15:38 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 061815
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   0115 PM EST MON 06 FEBRUARY 2023
   SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
            VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z FEBRUARY 2023
            WSPOD NUMBER.....22-068
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
       3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
   
   $$
   WJM
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:52:46 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011252
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during November was
  above average in terms of the number of named storms and
  hurricanes. Two hurricanes (Martin and Nicole) formed in the basin
  during November, and Lisa which developed in late October became a
  hurricane early in November. Based on a 30-year climatology
  (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one or two
  years. Although Martin did not affect land as a tropical cyclone,
  Nicole became a hurricane when it was affecting the northwestern
  Bahamas, and it became the first November hurricane to make landfall
  in Florida since Kate in 1985. Lisa also made landfall in Belize
  as a hurricane during the month of November.
  
  Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal
  activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but
  was slightly below average in terms of the number of major
  hurricanes. In 2022, fourteen named storms formed, of which eight
  became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or
  higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
  the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes,
  and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
  (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms
  and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2022 was slightly
  below average. The ACE for 2022 is 80 percent of the long-term
  (1991-2020) mean.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
  TS Bonnie 1-9 Jul 115
  TS Colin 1-2 Jul 40*
  H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
  H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
  MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
  TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
  MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
  TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
  TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
  TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
  H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
  TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
  H Lisa 31 Oct-5 Nov 85
  H Martin 1-3 Nov 85
  H Nicole 7-11 Nov 75
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit