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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Mon, 16 Jan 2023 15:02:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 161502
  TWOAT
  
  Special Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
  subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.
  
  Northwestern Atlantic:
  A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
  Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
  storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
  thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
  mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
  northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
  much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
  Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
  subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
  expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
  so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
  can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
  Service.
  
  No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
  this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
  resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
  be issued as necessary during the off-season.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
  
  &&
  High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
  found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
  online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
  
  $$
  Forecaster Cangialosi
  

• Sun, 05 Feb 2023 17:34:01 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 051733
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1805 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1700 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
  subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in
  Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in
  the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia,
  through midweek. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 to 13 ft
  during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas
  Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
  information.
  
  Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure is developing off
  the SE US Coast. The low pressure is forecast to move NE and strengthen,
  and will produce gale-force winds tonight into Mon morning N of
  30N between 69W and 76W. Seas are currently 7-11 ft, and are
  expected to build to 10-12 ft by Mon morning. Winds will diminish
  below gale force by Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High
  Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
  more information.
  
  Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extends from 31N48W to
  26N63W where a stationary front then continues to 26N75W. Large
  and long period swell is analyzed north of the frontal boundaries.
  Seas are 12-16 ft are within an area from 31N61W to 27N71W to
  26N66W and along the fronts to 31N48W. Highest seas within the
  Discussion Area are near 31N52W. Swell direction is NW with a
  period of 12-15 seconds. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted
  behind the fronts. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
  information.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
  Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 02N22W. The ITCZ
  begins at 02N22W and continues to 02S45W. Scattered moderate
  convection is noted south of 07N and east of 15W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A surface trough in the E Gulf of Mexico extends from 30N87W to
  24N86W. Recent scatterometer data captured the trough well,
  showing moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds near the trough,
  and an incipient low pressure center developing near 27N87W.
  Scattered showers are evident on satellite near the surface
  trough. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, high pressure maintains gentle
  winds. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin.
  
  For the forecast, high pressure will continue building across the
  basin. As the high moves E of the area, fresh to locally strong
  SE to S return flow will develop Mon night into Tue, with the
  strongest winds occurring in the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a
  cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed with strong to near-gale
  N winds possible behind it and quickly diminishing as the front
  reaches the central Gulf late Wed into early Thu.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Please read the Special Features section above for more details
  about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia.
  
  A strong high pressure system centered north of the Caribbean Sea
  supports fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea,
  with near gale force winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas are
  6-8 ft in the central Caribbean, and 8-10 ft off NW Colombia.
  Moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas are noted in the E
  Caribbean. In the SW Caribbean, NE winds are moderate and seas are
  4-6 ft. In the NW Caribbean, E winds are light to gentle with 2-4
  ft seas.
  
  For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient will continue
  across the central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period.
  Strong trade winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean
  Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into midweek. Seas
  will build to near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Strong
  easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and
  occasionally in the eastern Caribbean into midweek. Building ridge
  will result in fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean Tue into
  Wed.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  Please read the Special Features section above for details on
  the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic and Significant Swell in the
  Central and Western Atlantic.
  
  The W Atlantic Waters northeast of the Bahamas and Turks and
  Caicos are experiencing fresh to strong E winds associated with
  the frontal boundaries described in the Special Features section.
  Seas exceed 8 ft north of a line from 31N45W to 22N71W and along
  the Atlantic Exposures of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos to
  31N80W. A surface trough and stationary front over the Florida
  Peninsula is producing some scattered showers and tstorms between
  the coast of Florida and the Northern Bahamas.
  
  Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds, evident on scatterometer
  data, prevail over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with
  seas of 6-7 ft. The exception is an area of locally strong NE winds
  south of 20N and west of 30W, which has persisted long enough to
  build seas of 8-10 ft in E swell within this area.
  
  For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary described in
  the Special Features section is forecast to weaken today. The low
  pressure centered off the SE US Coast will move NE into the NW
  Atlantic and strengthen today, with gale- force winds developing
  late tonight into early Mon morning N of 30N and between 69W and
  76W. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon.
  
  $$
  Mahoney
  

• Tue, 17 Jan 2023 09:51:06 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

• Sun, 05 Feb 2023 17:41:24 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 051741
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1245 PM EST SUN 05 FEBRUARY 2023
   SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
            VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z FEBRUARY 2023
            WSPOD NUMBER.....22-067
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
          A. 07/0000Z
          B. AFXXX 21WSE IOP28
          C. 06/1730Z
          D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:   
             35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 155.0W, 50.0N 155.0W, AND 50.0N 125.0W
          E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 06/2030Z TO 07/0230Z
   
       2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
       3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
          FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
          PACIFIC FOR THE 09/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
   
   $$
   SEF
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:52:46 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011252
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during November was
  above average in terms of the number of named storms and
  hurricanes. Two hurricanes (Martin and Nicole) formed in the basin
  during November, and Lisa which developed in late October became a
  hurricane early in November. Based on a 30-year climatology
  (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one or two
  years. Although Martin did not affect land as a tropical cyclone,
  Nicole became a hurricane when it was affecting the northwestern
  Bahamas, and it became the first November hurricane to make landfall
  in Florida since Kate in 1985. Lisa also made landfall in Belize
  as a hurricane during the month of November.
  
  Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal
  activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but
  was slightly below average in terms of the number of major
  hurricanes. In 2022, fourteen named storms formed, of which eight
  became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or
  higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
  the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes,
  and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
  (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms
  and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2022 was slightly
  below average. The ACE for 2022 is 80 percent of the long-term
  (1991-2020) mean.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
  TS Bonnie 1-9 Jul 115
  TS Colin 1-2 Jul 40*
  H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
  H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
  MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
  TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
  MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
  TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
  TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
  TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
  H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
  TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
  H Lisa 31 Oct-5 Nov 85
  H Martin 1-3 Nov 85
  H Nicole 7-11 Nov 75
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit