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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Tue, 19 Oct 2021 23:13:31 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 192313
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Tue, 19 Oct 2021 21:37:47 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 192137
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Wed Oct 20 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2115 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is along 32W from 14N southward,
    moving westward around 15 kt. Little signature of this wave is
    noted at the surface. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is
    noted from 00N to 08N between 28W and 40W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is along 55W from 18N southward,
    moving westward around 15 kt. Little signature of this wave is
    noted at the surface. No significant convection is noted near this
    tropical wave.

    The axis of a tropical wave is along 63W from 18N southward,
    moving westward around 15 kt. The wave axis was noted from the
    earlier 1200 UTC Barbados and Trinidad 700 mb rawindsonde winds.
    Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of
    the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near the
    border of The Gambia and Senegal at 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ
    continues from 10N20W to 04N40W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is from 02N-08N between 27W-40W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N- 10N between
    43W-50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1024 mb high is centered north of the area near Hilton Head
    Island, South Carolina. A surface trough extends from the central
    Gulf of Mexico near 25N91W to the eastern Bay of Campeche near
    18N94W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted over the basin
    north of 27N between 88W and 94W, and east of 88W as well due to
    the pressure gradient between the trough and high. Seas are 3 to 5
    ft across these same waters. Mainly light to gentle winds and seas
    of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere.

    For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico waters
    during the forecast period. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
    expected over the north-central, and NE Gulf through Wed, and
    across the SE Gulf through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds
    will prevail elsewhere.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A weak pressure pattern exists across the Caribbean waters with
    gentle to moderate trades prevailing, except light to gentle south
    of 11N in the SW Caribbean. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to
    3 ft south of 11N in the SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and
    isolated strong convection is noted over the Caribbean from 11N to
    21N west of 80W, with additional showers and thunderstorms across
    mainly of the islands due to afternoon heating.

    For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area will
    bring fresh to locally strong trades east of the Windward Islands
    Wed through Sun. During this period, moderate to fresh winds are
    expected over the south-central Caribbean, including the Venezuela
    basin, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. A pair of
    tropical waves will move westward across the E and central
    Caribbean over the next 72 hours.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 31N56W to 25N70W where it becomes
    stationary to the central Bahamas. NE winds are moderate to fresh
    north of the frontal boundary. Scattered showers are occurring
    within 60 NM of the front. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft west of the
    front. Northeast of the Lesser Antilles, a trough extends from
    25N37W to 1012 mb low pressure near 28N40W to 24N54W, with another
    trough from 22N55W to 16N60W. Winds are moderate or weaker in the
    vicinity of the troughs. Scattered showers are occurring within
    60 NM of the troughs. Farther east, a stationary front enters the
    discussion waters from 31N26W to 27N28W, then becomes a trough
    extending to 24N32W. Winds west of the front and trough to 35W
    are moderate to fresh, along with 5 to 8 ft seas. Scattered
    showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front/trough. North of
    the ITCZ to 21N, the NE to E trades are moderate to fresh, with
    gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft in
    mixed swell across the remainder of the waters.

    The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
    Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash
    emission on-going. Marine and aviation interests should monitor
    this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory
    issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-
    palma/.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly
    stationary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas on Wed before
    dissipating on Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will
    shift eastward across the W Atlantic along 31N-32N through Thu,
    producing moderate to fresh winds immediately north of the front.

    $$
    Lewitsky

Active Tropical Systems

  • Tue, 19 Oct 2021 23:13:31 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 192313
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin
  • Tue, 19 Oct 2021 23:13:31 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 20 Oct 2021 00:34:56 GMT

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Tue, 19 Oct 2021 13:30:51 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 191330
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     0930 AM EDT TUE 19 OCTOBER 2021
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z OCTOBER 2021
              TCPOD NUMBER.....21-141
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Fri, 01 Oct 2021 12:21:52 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011119
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during September was
    above normal in terms of the numbers of named storms, and major
    hurricanes. Nine named storms formed in the Atlantic basin in
    September, with three of them becoming hurricanes, and two of those
    becoming major hurricanes. Larry was a long-lived category 3
    hurricane that ultimately made landfall in Newfoundland as a
    Category 1 hurricane, while Nicholas made landfall near Sargent
    Beach, Texas, as a Category 1 hurricane. Based on a 30-year
    climatology (1991-2020), four named storms typically develop in
    September, with three of them becoming hurricanes, and one of those
    becoming a major hurricane.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
    the basin so far in 2021 has also been above normal, almost 50
    percent above the long-term mean. The 20 named storms through the
    end of September is well above the 30-year (1991-2020) average of 9
    to 10 named storms by the end of September.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2021&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Ana 22-23 May 45*
    TS Bill 14-15 Jun 65*
    TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
    TS Danny 28-29 Jun 45
    H Elsa 1-9 Jul 85
    TS Fred 11-18 Aug 65
    MH Grace 13-21 Aug 125
    H Henri 16-23 Aug 75
    MH Ida 26 Aug-2 Sep 150
    TS Kate 28 Aug-1 Sep 45
    TS Julian 29-30 Aug 60
    MH Larry 31 Aug-11 Sep 125
    TS Mindy 8-10 Sep 45
    H Nicholas 12-17 Sep 75
    TS Odette 17-18 Sep 45
    TS Peter 18-22 Sep 50
    TS Rose 19-23 Sep 50
    MH Sam 22 Sep- 150
    STS Teresa 24-25 Sep 45
    TS Victor 29 Sep- 60
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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