Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:23:02 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  843
  ABNT20 KNHC 041735
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
  200 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
  Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with an
  area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
  the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined, and the
  associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become more
  concentrated near the low's center. A short-lived tropical
  depression is likely to form later today or tonight before
  upper-level winds increase and become too hostile for further
  development on Wednesday. The low is forecast to move
  northwestward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic
  during the next couple of days.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
  
  East of the Windward Islands:
  A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east
  of the southern Windward Islands is producing an area of showers
  and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined center.
  Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for
  development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
  couple of days, if the system stays far enough away from land while
  moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
  southeastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to become more
  conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
  the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
  locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions
  of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
  Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
  Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
  Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this
  system.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Bann
  
  

• Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:55:10 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  685
  AXNT20 KNHC 041741
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1805 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1700 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  A broad low pressure system located near 14N29.5W or a few hundred
  miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
  a large area of showers and thunderstorms. A cluster of moderate
  to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of low center.
  A band-like of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
  is to the E of the low center from 08N to 17N between 24W and
  28W. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for
  development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
  the next day or so while moving northwestward at about 5 to 10 kt
  over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected
  to become less conducive for development by Wednesday and Thursday.
  Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds associated
  with this system, that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
  through 48 hours. An area of 6 to 8 ft seas surrounds the low center,
  especially in the SW flow to the S of it. Please refer to the
  latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
  details.
  
  Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived wind data
  suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be forming in
  association with the tropical wave located along 56W or a few
  hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the
  wave is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds,
  conditions could become more conducive for a tropical depression
  to form while moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt, crossing the
  Windward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to
  become more conducive for development later this week when the
  system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless
  of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
  expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and
  Wednesday. Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and
  the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of
  this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
  currently enroute to investigate this system. Currently, satellite
  imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
  within about 150 nm S semicircle of low center. Based on recent
  scatterometer data, an area of fresh to strong winds is just N of
  the low center covering the waters from 11N to 16N between 53W
  and 57W where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Similar winds are
  also noted within about 180 nm SE quadrant, with higher wind
  speeds in and near the convective activity. This system has now a
  medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48
  hours, and through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
  Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast
  of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W, then continues WNW to a1008 mb low
  pressure located near 14N29.5W to to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues
  from 08N42W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
  from 01N to 08N between 20W and 24W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A dry reinforcing cold front is moving across the NE Gulf. Moderate
  NE winds follow the front. A surface trough is analyzed from near
  20N91W, northwestward to inland Mexico near Tampico. Elsewhere,
  relatively weak high pressure dominates the region supporting
  gentle to moderate northeast winds. Seas throughout are in the 1-3
  ft range. SW to W upper-level flow is advecting multilayer clouds
  across Mexico into the northern Gulf.
  
  For the forecast, the front will drift south across the eastern
  Gulf and dissipate through tonight. High pressure north of the
  area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to
  moderate seas through Thu. Looking ahead, another front will move
  into the northern Gulf Fri, and stall across the central Gulf
  Sat. Expect fresh NE to E winds across the southeast Gulf late Fri
  and Sat between high pressure north of the front and lower pressure
  in the Caribbean Sea.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
  tropical wave, an associated low pressure, located east of the
  southern Windward Islands.
  
  A surface trough remains over the west-central Caribbean and
  extends from 29N79W to 10N80W. Light to gentle winds are on either
  side of the trough axis. Scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms are associated with this feature, affecting mainly
  the waters from 12N to 18N between 78W and 84W. Scattered showers
  are also seen over the Lesser Antilles, mainly S of Guadeloupe.
  Mainly light to gentle trade winds dominate the basin, with the
  exception of moderate trades across the ABC Islands, and in the
  Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft
  over the south-central Caribbean, with the highest seas near the
  coast of Colombia.
  
  For the forecast, an area of low pressure located east of the
  Windward Islands will move across the Caribbean through Sat,
  accompanied by strong winds and rough seas. Some slow development
  of this system is possible during the next several days while the
  wave moves generally westward. Interests in the Windward Islands
  should monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to
  moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across
  the basin through late Wed. Fresh northeast winds then develop out
  ahead of the tropical wave through Sat night.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  Please read the Special Features section on potential tropical
  cyclone development in the eastern Atlantic Basin.
  
  A stationary front extends from 31N67W to the NW Bahamas. A cold
  front follows it and stretches from 31N75W to inland central
  Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly
  winds are noted per scatterometer data in the wake of the cold
  front with seas of 6 to 8 ft. A narrow band of showers with
  embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the stationary front within
  about 60 nm E of a line from 30N68W to 25N70W to 22N74W. A 1021 mb
  high is located near 29N50W while another high pressure center of
  1024 mb is just N of the Madeira Islands. Under the influence of
  these systems, mainly light to gentle winds are observed with seas
  of 2 to 4 ft.
  
  For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
  through mid week. The cold front will stall from Bermuda to the
  southern Bahamas through Thu.
  
  $$
  GR
  
  

• Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:23:02 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
  
  843
  ABNT20 KNHC 041735
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
  200 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
  Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with an
  area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
  the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined, and the
  associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become more
  concentrated near the low's center. A short-lived tropical
  depression is likely to form later today or tonight before
  upper-level winds increase and become too hostile for further
  development on Wednesday. The low is forecast to move
  northwestward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic
  during the next couple of days.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
  
  East of the Windward Islands:
  A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east
  of the southern Windward Islands is producing an area of showers
  and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined center.
  Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for
  development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
  couple of days, if the system stays far enough away from land while
  moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
  southeastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to become more
  conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
  the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
  locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions
  of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
  Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
  Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
  Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this
  system.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Bann
  
  
• Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:23:02 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
  No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:55:15 GMT

• Tue, 04 Oct 2022 16:25:40 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   562 
   NOUS42 KNHC 041625
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1225 PM EDT TUE 04 OCTOBER 2022
   SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
            VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z OCTOBER 2022
            TCPOD NUMBER.....22-131
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS)
          FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
          A. 05/2330Z,06/0530Z          A. 06/1130Z,1730Z
          B. AFXXX 0412A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0512A CYCLONE
          C. 05/2145Z                   C. 06/0945Z
          D. 12.0N 62.8W                D. 12.4N 66.0W
          E. 05/2300Z TO 06/0530Z       E. 06/1100Z TO 06/1730Z
          F. SFC TO 10.000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
          G. FIX                        G. FIX
   
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
          DEVELOPS.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   $$
   WJM
   
   NNNN
   
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Sat, 01 Oct 2022 11:56:18 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011156
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during September
  was above normal in terms of the number of named storms,
  hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Six named storms formed in the
  basin during September with four of those becoming hurricanes, and
  two becoming major hurricanes. One unnamed tropical depression
  also formed. Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), four or
  five named storms typically develop in September, with three of
  them becoming hurricanes, and one of those becoming a major
  hurricane.
  
  Fiona made landfall in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the
  Turks and Caicos Islands as a hurricane, and affected Atlantic
  Canada as a powerful post-tropical cyclone. Ian made two landfalls
  as a major hurricane, one in western Cuba and one along the
  southwest coast of Florida, and another landfall as a hurricane in
  South Carolina.
  
  In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
  strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
  the basin so far in 2022 is slightly below average. Despite the
  slow start to the season, September activity increased ACE to 85
  percent of the long-term median value through the end of the month.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70
  TS Bonnie 1-2 Jul 50
  TS Colin 2-3 Jul 40
  H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
  H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
  MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
  TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
  MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
  TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
  TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit