Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tue, 19 Oct 2021 23:13:31 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 192313
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Papin
  

• Tue, 19 Oct 2021 21:37:47 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 192137
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0005 UTC Wed Oct 20 2021
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  2115 UTC.
  
  ...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
  The axis of a tropical wave is along 32W from 14N southward,
  moving westward around 15 kt. Little signature of this wave is
  noted at the surface. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is
  noted from 00N to 08N between 28W and 40W.
  
  The axis of a tropical wave is along 55W from 18N southward,
  moving westward around 15 kt. Little signature of this wave is
  noted at the surface. No significant convection is noted near this
  tropical wave.
  
  The axis of a tropical wave is along 63W from 18N southward,
  moving westward around 15 kt. The wave axis was noted from the
  earlier 1200 UTC Barbados and Trinidad 700 mb rawindsonde winds.
  Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of
  the wave axis.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near the
  border of The Gambia and Senegal at 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ
  continues from 10N20W to 04N40W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate to
  isolated strong convection is from 02N-08N between 27W-40W.
  Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N- 10N between
  43W-50W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A 1024 mb high is centered north of the area near Hilton Head
  Island, South Carolina. A surface trough extends from the central
  Gulf of Mexico near 25N91W to the eastern Bay of Campeche near
  18N94W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted over the basin
  north of 27N between 88W and 94W, and east of 88W as well due to
  the pressure gradient between the trough and high. Seas are 3 to 5
  ft across these same waters. Mainly light to gentle winds and seas
  of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere.
  
  For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico waters
  during the forecast period. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
  expected over the north-central, and NE Gulf through Wed, and
  across the SE Gulf through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds
  will prevail elsewhere.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  A weak pressure pattern exists across the Caribbean waters with
  gentle to moderate trades prevailing, except light to gentle south
  of 11N in the SW Caribbean. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to
  3 ft south of 11N in the SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and
  isolated strong convection is noted over the Caribbean from 11N to
  21N west of 80W, with additional showers and thunderstorms across
  mainly of the islands due to afternoon heating.
  
  For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area will
  bring fresh to locally strong trades east of the Windward Islands
  Wed through Sun. During this period, moderate to fresh winds are
  expected over the south-central Caribbean, including the Venezuela
  basin, with gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. A pair of
  tropical waves will move westward across the E and central
  Caribbean over the next 72 hours.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A cold front extends from 31N56W to 25N70W where it becomes
  stationary to the central Bahamas. NE winds are moderate to fresh
  north of the frontal boundary. Scattered showers are occurring
  within 60 NM of the front. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft west of the
  front. Northeast of the Lesser Antilles, a trough extends from
  25N37W to 1012 mb low pressure near 28N40W to 24N54W, with another
  trough from 22N55W to 16N60W. Winds are moderate or weaker in the
  vicinity of the troughs. Scattered showers are occurring within
  60 NM of the troughs. Farther east, a stationary front enters the
  discussion waters from 31N26W to 27N28W, then becomes a trough
  extending to 24N32W. Winds west of the front and trough to 35W
  are moderate to fresh, along with 5 to 8 ft seas. Scattered
  showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front/trough. North of
  the ITCZ to 21N, the NE to E trades are moderate to fresh, with
  gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft in
  mixed swell across the remainder of the waters.
  
  The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
  Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash
  emission on-going. Marine and aviation interests should monitor
  this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory
  issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-
  palma/.
  
  For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly
  stationary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas on Wed before
  dissipating on Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will
  shift eastward across the W Atlantic along 31N-32N through Thu,
  producing moderate to fresh winds immediately north of the front.
  
  $$
  Lewitsky
  

• Tue, 19 Oct 2021 23:13:31 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 192313
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Papin
  
• Tue, 19 Oct 2021 23:13:31 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
  No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 20 Oct 2021 00:34:56 GMT

• Tue, 19 Oct 2021 13:30:51 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 191330
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   0930 AM EDT TUE 19 OCTOBER 2021
   SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
            VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z OCTOBER 2021
            TCPOD NUMBER.....21-141
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   $$
   WJM
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Fri, 01 Oct 2021 12:21:52 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011119
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during September was
  above normal in terms of the numbers of named storms, and major
  hurricanes. Nine named storms formed in the Atlantic basin in
  September, with three of them becoming hurricanes, and two of those
  becoming major hurricanes. Larry was a long-lived category 3
  hurricane that ultimately made landfall in Newfoundland as a
  Category 1 hurricane, while Nicholas made landfall near Sargent
  Beach, Texas, as a Category 1 hurricane. Based on a 30-year
  climatology (1991-2020), four named storms typically develop in
  September, with three of them becoming hurricanes, and one of those
  becoming a major hurricane.
  
  In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
  strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
  the basin so far in 2021 has also been above normal, almost 50
  percent above the long-term mean. The 20 named storms through the
  end of September is well above the 30-year (1991-2020) average of 9
  to 10 named storms by the end of September.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2021&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Ana 22-23 May 45*
  TS Bill 14-15 Jun 65*
  TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
  TS Danny 28-29 Jun 45
  H Elsa 1-9 Jul 85
  TS Fred 11-18 Aug 65
  MH Grace 13-21 Aug 125
  H Henri 16-23 Aug 75
  MH Ida 26 Aug-2 Sep 150
  TS Kate 28 Aug-1 Sep 45
  TS Julian 29-30 Aug 60
  MH Larry 31 Aug-11 Sep 125
  TS Mindy 8-10 Sep 45
  H Nicholas 12-17 Sep 75
  TS Odette 17-18 Sep 45
  TS Peter 18-22 Sep 50
  TS Rose 19-23 Sep 50
  MH Sam 22 Sep- 150
  STS Teresa 24-25 Sep 45
  TS Victor 29 Sep- 60
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit