2024 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Mon, 14 Oct 2024 23:16:58 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  

• Mon, 14 Oct 2024 20:50:46 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 142050
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0005 UTC Tue Oct 15 2024
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  2050 UTC.
  
  ...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
  The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W, south
  of 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt with 1011 mb low pressure
  (AL94) along the wave axis near 17N40W. Scattered moderate
  convection is within 120 nm of the low pressure center. This
  system is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and
  tropical cyclone development is unlikely over the next couple of
  days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
  toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become
  more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter
  part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system
  begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the
  Leeward Islands late this week. There is a LOW chance of tropical
  cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a MEDIUM chance
  for tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Please refer
  to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National
  Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
  
  The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W, south of 20N,
  and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N
  to 18N between 70W and 75W.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 13N16W to 08N24W to
  10N37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N east of
  38W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure generally prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle
  to moderate winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, are E of 90W, with light to
  gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, W of 90W.
  
  For the forecast, gentle to moderate NNE winds will dominate much
  of the basin through Tue ahead of a cold front forecast to move
  into the northern Gulf Tue night. The front, followed by fresh to
  strong N to NE winds and rough seas, will reach the Florida
  Straits and move E of the area Wed night into Thu. However, fresh
  to strong winds will start to diminish late Sun.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Widespread moderate scattered strong convection, enhanced by upper
  level divergence and the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is evident
  on satellite from the coast of Panama north to 15N between 75W
  and 83W. Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 4-7 ft are over the
  central Caribbean. Over the eastern Caribbean, moderate winds,
  and seas of 4-5 ft, are noted. Gentle winds, and seas of 2-4 ft,
  prevail over the western Caribbean.
  
  For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the eastern and
  central Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on
  Wed and then prevail through Sat night. A cold front will enter
  the NW Caribbean Wed evening followed by moderate to fresh NNE
  winds. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of
  Honduras Thu night and from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras Fri
  evening. Rough seas are expected during this period over the
  Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE winds associated with the front will
  also funnel through the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat
  night aided by an approaching area of low pressure, Invest AL94,
  approaching the Turks and Caicos from the east.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A 1011 mb area of low pressure (AL94) is centered near 17N40W.
  Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail N of
  the low center. A cold front extends from 31N38W to 27N44W, where
  a stationary front then continues to 22N72W then across the
  northern Bahamas and finally across the south Florida Peninsula.
  Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, are N of the front.
  Two area of high pressure are over the area. One is a 1018 mb high
  centered near 24N49W, and the other is a 1017 mb high near
  25N30W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are near the
  high centers. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6
  ft, prevail.
  
  For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh SW to W winds
  associated with a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front
  from the west will continue to affect the NE Florida and the
  northern Bahamas offshore waters through Tue. Looking ahead, the
  leading cold front will stall Tue night while a second and
  stronger cold front come off the Georgia coast. The second cold
  front will merge with the leading front on Wed and will bring
  fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas to the Florida and
  the Bahamas offshore waters through the weekend. Otherwise, Invest
  AL94, is forecast to move to the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico
  on Fri and merge with the front conditions NE of the Dominican
  Republic on Sat.
  
  $$
  AL
  

• Mon, 14 Oct 2024 23:17:00 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
  No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 15 Oct 2024 03:10:37 GMT
• Mon, 14 Oct 2024 23:17:00 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 142316
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
  A well-defined area of low pressure located over the central
  tropical Atlantic is producing occasional showers and
  thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a dry air
  environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of
  days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
  and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable
  for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A
  tropical depression could form as the system begins moving
  west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands
  late this week.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
  
  Western Caribbean Sea:
  A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern
  Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
  gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over
  water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern
  Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
  is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Kelly
  

• Mon, 14 Oct 2024 16:23:55 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   192 
   NOUS42 KNHC 141623
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1225 PM EDT MON 14 OCTOBER 2024
   SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
            VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z OCTOBER 2024
            TCPOD NUMBER.....24-136
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
          A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
             INTO AL94 NEAR 17.0N 54.0W FOR 17/1200Z.
          B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO AL94 
             FOR 17/1200Z.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   $$
   KAL
   
   NNNN
   
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Tue, 01 Oct 2024 11:55:51 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011155
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity this September was close to average in
  terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes that formed in
  the basin. Six named storms formed in September with three of
  them becoming hurricanes, and one of those becoming a major
  hurricane (Helene). Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020),
  between 4-5 named storms typically develop in September, with
  three of them becoming hurricanes, and one of those becoming a
  major hurricane.
  
  During the month, Hurricane Francine made landfall in southern
  Louisiana as a category 2 hurricane, and Helene made landfall as a
  category 4 hurricane along the coast of the Florida Big Bend.
  
  In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
  strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
  the basin so far in 2024 is about 80 percent of the long-term
  (1991-2020) mean.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
  National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ------------------------------------------------------------------
  TS Alberto 19-20 Jun 50*
  MH Beryl 28 Jun-9 Jul 165
  TS Chris 30 Jun-1 Jul 45*
  H Debby 3-9 Aug 80
  H Ernesto 12-20 Aug 100
  H Francine 9-12 Sep 100
  TS Gordon 11-17 Sep 45
  MH Helene 24-27 Sep 140
  H Isaac 26-30 Sep 105
  TS Joyce 27-30 Sep 50
  TS Kirk 29 Sep- 60
  
  ------------------------------------------------------------------
  
  Dates are based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit