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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2023 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Mon, 16 Jan 2023 15:02:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 161502
    TWOAT

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
    subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

    Northwestern Atlantic:
    A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
    Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
    storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
    thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
    mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
    northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
    much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
    Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
    subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
    expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
    so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
    can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
    Service.

    No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
    this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    be issued as necessary during the off-season.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
    online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 06 Feb 2023 17:51:31 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    615
    AXNT20 KNHC 061751
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1730 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

    The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western
    Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower
    surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue
    to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south
    central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night
    through late this week. The sea heights are forecast to range
    from 9 feet to 11 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest
    wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
    Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
    more details.

    Atlantic Ocean GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

    A 994 mb low pressure center is near 34N71W. A cold front
    extends from the 994 mb low pressure center, through 31N71W, to
    27N73W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas. Precipitation:
    scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 240 nm
    to the east and southeast of the cold front.
    Gale-force SW winds, and sea heights that range from 11 feet to
    13 feet, are from 29N to 31N between 67W and 72W. Moderate to
    fresh NE winds are to the north of the line that runs from the
    coast of Africa at 20N, to 22N31W to 24N50W. Near gale-force NE
    winds are from 12N to 21N between 29W and 50W. Strong NE winds
    cover the areas that are from 06N to 26N from 50W eastward.
    Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N northward from 26W
    eastward. Fresh to strong easterly winds are between 50W and
    60W. Strong to near gale-force SE winds have been covering the
    Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 60W to the approaching
    cold front. Fresh to strong SE winds have been elsewhere from
    60W westward away from the front. The sea heights of 8 feet and
    higher are reaching the coastal waters of South America between
    40W and 60W. The sea heights of 8 feet and higher also are
    nearly everywhere from 20N northward from 60W westward, away
    from the Bahamas. The sea heights of 4 feet or lower are in the
    Bahamas. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
    information.

    Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:

    The SW Atlantic Ocean stationary front has dissipated. Large and
    long-period swell has been covering the Atlantic Ocean from 25N
    northward between 40W and 60W. The comparatively highest sea
    heights that have been ranging from 14 feet to 17 feet have been
    near 30N between 40W and 46W. The sea heights are 18 feet and
    higher from 31N northward. The swell direction is N to NW, with
    a period that has been ranging from 12 seconds to 16 seconds.
    Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the north of the line that
    runs from the coast of Africa at 20N, to 22N31W to 24N50W. Near
    gale-force NE winds are from 12N to 21N between 29W and 50W.
    Strong NE winds cover the areas that are from 06N to 26N from
    50W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N northward
    from 26W eastward. Fresh to strong easterly winds are between
    50W and 60W. Strong to near gale-force SE winds have been
    covering the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 60W to the
    approaching cold front. Fresh to strong SE winds have been
    elsewhere from 60W westward away from the front. Please, read
    the latest High Seas Forecast, at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
    information.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
    near 10N14W, curving to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W,
    to crossing the Equator along 22W, to 01S25W and 01S31W.
    Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to
    the south of the line 08N at the coast of Africa, to 07N26W 05N41W
    05N52W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
    north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area near
    21N97W in the coastal plains of Mexico. The sea heights have
    been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern half of the
    area, and they have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet in the
    western half of the area. Gentle to moderate winds have been in
    the western half of the area. Gentle winds or slower have been
    in the eastern half of the area.

    High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will move eastward
    during the next few days. Southerly return flow will increase to
    fresh to locally strong tonight into early Tue in the western
    Gulf, with fresh winds spreading to the remainder of the Gulf
    Tue. Strong winds also will develop off NW Cuba and the NW
    Yucatan Tue night into early Wed. A cold front will enter the
    western Gulf on Wed with strong N winds possible behind it off S
    Texas and Mexico, and quickly diminishing as the front reaches
    the central Gulf early Thu. A stronger cold front will enter the
    Gulf late Thu into Fri with near gale-force winds in the SW Gulf.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
    GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING that has been issued for the coastal
    waters of Colombia.

    Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
    imagery, covering the much of the Caribbean Sea. The exception
    is in the SE corner of the area.

    A surface trough curves from northern Colombia, through 14N80W,
    through NW Cuba, and into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
    Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either
    side of the trough.

    Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are in the Atlantic Ocean,
    to the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Those same
    winds have been in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea,
    and in the northern half of the central one-third of the
    Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are in the
    southern half of the central one-third of the area. Moderate to
    fresh NE winds have been in the southern two-thirds of the
    western one-third of the area. The sea heights have been ranging
    from 7 feet to 10 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, and in
    parts of the SW corner. The sea heights have been ranging from 6
    feet to 8 feet in the eastern one-third of the area, and from 2
    feet to 4 feet in the western one-third of the area.

    The subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain a strong
    pressure gradient across the central Caribbean Sea through the
    week. Strong easterly winds will continue in the south central
    Caribbean, Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into
    late this week. Seas will build to near 13 ft
    during the strongest winds. Winds will increase in the Windward
    Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras late Tue through late
    this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly winds will
    also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the
    eastern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
    GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING and the ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL
    EVENT.

    A stationary front is along 31N45W to 30N52W. Precipitation:
    isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the
    stationary front. A 1041 mb high pressure center is near 40N43W.

    The rest of the information about the Atlantic Ocean is in the
    SPECIAL FEATURES section.

    Rapidly strengthening 994 mb low pressure near 34N71W is moving
    NE away from the area. A cold front extends from the low to
    31N71W to 28N72W to Andros Island, Bahamas. Gale-force S to SW
    winds are present N 29N and within 180 nm E of the cold front.
    As the low pres moves farther away, gale force winds will end E
    of the front late this afternoon or early this evening. The cold
    front will sweep across the Atlantic over the next couple of
    days, reaching from near 27N55W to the SE Bahamas Wed morning.
    Strong wind speeds will continue north of 28N on both sides of
    the
    front through Tue night. Large swell will build in Wed behind
    the front and spread southward across the basin through late
    week.

    $$
    mt/ah

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Mon, 06 Feb 2023 18:15:38 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 061815
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     0115 PM EST MON 06 FEBRUARY 2023
     SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z FEBRUARY 2023
              WSPOD NUMBER.....22-068
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
         3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:52:46 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011252
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during November was
    above average in terms of the number of named storms and
    hurricanes. Two hurricanes (Martin and Nicole) formed in the basin
    during November, and Lisa which developed in late October became a
    hurricane early in November. Based on a 30-year climatology
    (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one or two
    years. Although Martin did not affect land as a tropical cyclone,
    Nicole became a hurricane when it was affecting the northwestern
    Bahamas, and it became the first November hurricane to make landfall
    in Florida since Kate in 1985. Lisa also made landfall in Belize
    as a hurricane during the month of November.

    Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal
    activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but
    was slightly below average in terms of the number of major
    hurricanes. In 2022, fourteen named storms formed, of which eight
    became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or
    higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
    the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes,
    and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
    (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms
    and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2022 was slightly
    below average. The ACE for 2022 is 80 percent of the long-term
    (1991-2020) mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
    TS Bonnie 1-9 Jul 115
    TS Colin 1-2 Jul 40*
    H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
    H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
    MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
    TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
    MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
    TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
    TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
    TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
    H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
    TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
    H Lisa 31 Oct-5 Nov 85
    H Martin 1-3 Nov 85
    H Nicole 7-11 Nov 75
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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