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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season had a record breaking 30 named storms this season, 13 developed into hurricanes, and six further intensified into major hurricanes!!!!! WHAT A SEASON #2020!!!!
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Fri, 25 Jun 2021 05:52:13 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    891
    ABNT20 KNHC 250552
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A strong tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic off
    the African coast is producing a broad and disorganized area of
    showers and a few thunderstorms. As the system moves west-
    northwestward into the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few
    days, conditions appear at best only marginally conducive for
    development due to relatively cool ocean temperatures. However, some
    development of this system is still possible by early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Fri, 25 Jun 2021 05:53:24 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 250553
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0605 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0500 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is just off the coast of Africa with an axis near
    18W from 16N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is from 03N to 12N east of 21W. This tropical wave has
    a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48
    hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W and from 16N southward,
    moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 09N
    between 36W and 39W and from 02N to 05N between 32W and 38W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W from 11N southward to 06N,
    moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to
    09N between 47W and 52W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near the Lesser Antilles along 61.5W
    from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 54W and 57W.
    Additional scattered moderate convection is noted inland over
    E Venezuela and W Guyana.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 78.5W from 19N southward,
    moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the SW
    Caribbean south of 12N and in the NW Caribbean between Cuba,
    Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
    Senegal near 14N17W to 07N22W to 05N39W. The ITCZ then continues
    from 05N39W to 05N45W. Aside from convection noted in the
    tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted
    south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 04N between 21W and 27W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    The only surface feature in the Gulf of Mexico tonight is the
    diurnal trough along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
    which is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 20N and
    east of 93W in the SE Bay of Campeche. This trough is also
    producing fresh to locally strong E-NE winds offshore of the NW
    Yucatan Peninsula, from 20N to 22N between 89W and 92W. High
    pressure ridging prevails across the rest of the Gulf. Light to
    gentle E winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate
    E-SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft range in western and central
    Gulf and 2-4 ft the eastern Gulf.

    For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the
    northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will prevail
    through early next week. A diurnally induced trough will bring
    fresh to locally strong E to SE winds NW of the Yucatan peninsula
    tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
    across the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    In the NW Caribbean, a weak surface trough is analyzed from the
    coast of Cuba near 22N81W southward to 18N81W. This feature and a
    nearby tropical wave are producing scattered showers between Cuba,
    Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. A weak pressure gradient
    prevails over the Caribbean waters, supporting moderate trades
    over most of the Caribbean, The exception is in the central
    Caribbean within 80 nm of the coast of Colombia where trades are
    locally fresh, and in the NW Caribbean where trades are light to
    gentle. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, and
    2-4 ft in the western Caribbean.

    For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the
    basin through the weekend. Sunday night, fresh to strong easterly
    winds will return to the south-central Caribbean and to the Gulf
    of Honduras by Tue. A tropical wave is expected to move across the
    eastern Caribbean tonight into Sat. This will enhance convection
    in this area through Sat and shift to the central Caribbean by
    Sun.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough is analyzed across the waters off the coast of
    Florida, from 25N81W to 30N89W. Scattered showers and isolated moderate
    convection is within 140 nm east of this trough. A second surface
    trough is analyzed from 29N55W to 25N56W. This surface trough, in
    association with an upper level low, is producing scattered
    moderate convection within 120 nm of the trough axis. Light to
    gentle trades are noted north of the Bahamas off the coast of
    Florida. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder
    of the discussion waters, except near the Cabo Verde Islands where
    NE winds are fresh to locally strong. Seas are 3-6 ft across most
    of the Atlantic, except 6-9 ft in the area of fresh winds near
    the Cabo Verde Islands.

    For the forecast, the frontal boundary will dissipate across
    north Florida and off the U.S. eastern seaboard. This boundary
    will enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
    western Atlantic mainly west of 76W and N of 25N. Quiescent
    conditions are expected during the weekend. A surface trough is to
    move northwest Fri through Sun, staying north of the Lesser and
    Greater Antilles.

    $$
    Mahoney

Active Tropical Systems

  • Fri, 25 Jun 2021 05:52:16 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 250552
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A strong tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic off
    the African coast is producing a broad and disorganized area of
    showers and a few thunderstorms. As the system moves west-
    northwestward into the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few
    days, conditions appear at best only marginally conducive for
    development due to relatively cool ocean temperatures. However, some
    development of this system is still possible by early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
  • Fri, 25 Jun 2021 05:52:16 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 25 Jun 2021 06:15:45 GMT

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Thu, 24 Jun 2021 13:46:20 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 241336
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     0935 AM EDT THU 24 JUNE 2021
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2021
              TCPOD NUMBER.....21-024
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Tue, 01 Dec 2020 12:51:50 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011251
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the month of
    November was extremely active, with two tropical cyclones developing
    during the month and a third tropical cyclone, Eta, continuing from
    the end of October. Two of the storms, Eta and Iota, became major
    hurricanes, with Iota becoming the latest observed category 5
    hurricane on record in the North Atlantic basin. Both Eta and Iota
    made landfall in Nicaragua as major hurricanes in nearly the same
    location. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), a tropical
    storm forms in the basin in November every one to two years, a
    hurricane forms every other year, and a major hurricane forms every
    seven to eight years.

    Overall, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active,
    with well above normal activity for the season. A record thirty
    named storms formed, with thirteen becoming hurricanes and six
    becoming major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on the
    Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the long-term
    average of twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and three major
    hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
    reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
    Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical
    storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in 2020 was 75
    percent above the long-term mean.

    A record twelve named storms made landfall in the United States in
    2020, with an additional storm, Arthur, not making landfall but
    producing tropical storm force winds along the coast of North
    Carolina.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Arthur 16-19 May 60*
    TS Bertha 27-28 May 50*
    TS Cristobal 1-9 Jun 60
    TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
    TS Edouard 4-6 Jul 45
    TS Fay 9-11 Jul 60
    TS Gonzalo 21-25 Jul 65
    H Hanna 23-27 Jul 90
    H Isaias 30 Jul-5 Aug 85
    TD Ten 31 Jul-1 Aug 35
    TS Josephine 11-16 Aug 45
    TS Kyle 14-16 Aug 50
    MH Laura 20-28 Aug 150
    H Marco 20-25 Aug 75
    H Nana 1-4 Sep 75
    TS Omar 31 Aug-5 Sep 40
    H Paulette 7-22 Sep 105
    TS Rene 7-14 Sep 50
    H Sally 11-17 Sep 105
    MH Teddy 12-22 Sep 140
    TS Vicky 14-17 Sep 50
    TS Wilfred 18-20 Sep 40
    SS Alpha 18 Sep 50
    TS Beta 17-22 Sep 60
    TS Gamma 2-5 Oct 70
    MH Delta 4-10 Oct 145
    MH Epsilon 19-26 Oct 115
    H Zeta 24-29 Oct 110
    MH Eta 31 Oct-13 Nov 150
    TS Theta 10-15 Nov 70
    MH Iota 13-18 Nov 160
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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