![[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_strikes.jpg)
Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 02 Jun 2023 17:29:51 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021729
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Arlene, located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Arlene are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Arlene are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 02 Jun 2023 18:23:49 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected) - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) (corrected)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 021823 CCA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTION
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023
Corrected to indicate that Tropical Depression Two has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Arlene
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The center of Tropical Storm Arlene, at 02/1800 UTC, is near
near 26.7N 86.2W. This position is about 425 km/230 nm to the
west of Fort Myers in Florida, and it is about 550 km/297 nm to
the NNW of the western tip of Cuba. The tropical storm is
moving southward, or 175 degrees, 4 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. The sea heights that are close
to the tropical storm are ranging from 6 feet to a maximum of
10 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate is within
180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate is from
25N to 27N between 80W and 84W, including in parts of south
Florida. Broad surface low pressure extends from the area of the
tropical storm, through the Yucatan Channel, into the NW part
of the Caribbean Sea.
Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml,for details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 13N
southward, moving W from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 450 nm to
the west of the tropical wave 04N to 09N. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 530 nm to the east of the tropical wave
from 04N to 10N.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate to strong is within 270 nm to the east of the tropical
wave from 05N to 09N, and within 440 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 05N to 13N.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from Puerto Rico
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 17N southward between 60W and 63W, covering
the nearby eastern Caribbean Sea islands, from Guadeloupe
southward.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
along 10N, 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W, 06N33W 06N40W
05N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 02N to 10N from 21W eastward. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please, read the Special Features section, for details about
Tropical Storm Arlene.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are from the Yucatan Peninsula
westward. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere from 90W
westward. Light to gentle winds are in the SE Gulf. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet from 90W westward, and they
range from 1 foot to 2 feet, elsewhere from 90W eastward, away
from Tropical Storm Arlene.
Some smoke and haze, and possible reductions to visibility, are
in the southern parts of the Gulf of Mexico, from the NE Yucatan
Peninsula southwestward, due to ongoing agricultural fires in
southern Mexico and in northern Central America.
Tropical Depression Two is near 26.7N 86.3W 1002 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving S at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. T.D. Two will move to 25.6N 86.2W this evening, 24.2N 85.8W
Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 23.2N 84.9W Sat
evening, before dissipating Sun morning. Over the western Gulf,
gentle to moderate winds are expected into early next week, with
occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Mostly fresh SE winds are in the central one-third of the area.
Moderate SE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 5 feet from 73W eastward, and they range from 2 feet to
3 feet elsewhere.
An upper level trough, and a surface trough, are in the NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
accompanies the upper level trough.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong in
clusters, is covering the areas that are from 11N to Cuba between
between 70W and 82W. This area encompasses Hispaniola, the SE
half of Cuba, Jamaica, and the surrounding waters. Isolated
moderate is from 12N southward from 78W westward. The monsoon
trough extends from La Peninsula de la Guajira of northern
Colombia, to 13N80W, through the central sections of Nicaragua,
into the Pacific Ocean.
The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 02/1200 UTC, are: 1.59 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.30 in
Trinidad, 0.07 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Kingston in Jamaica,
according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables, MIATPTPAN.
A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades
across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end
of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of
Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the central part of the basin
will diminish early next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front is passing through 31N30W 27N43W, beyond 31N62W. The
front connects eventually to a 1005 mb low pressure center that
is near 31N67W. A surface trough extends from the 1005 mb low
pressure center, to the NW Bahamas, and to 25N80W off the coast of
SE Florida. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 20N
northward from 20W westward. Fresh to strong cyclonic wind flow is
within 210 nm of the 1005 mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are from 23N to 25N between 66W and 68W.
Large-scale moderate anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere from 20N
northward from 60W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to
5 feet from 20N northward from 60W westward. Large-scale gentle
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward from 60W eastward. A 1016 mb high pressure center is
near 22N35W.
Fresh northerly winds are from 15N to 20N from 23W eastward.
Fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 13N between 40W and 50W.
Moderate NE winds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere, from 60W eastward.
The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 02/1200 UTC, are: 1.09 in Bermuda, according to the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.
A surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas northeastward
to 1007 mb low pressure southwest of Bermuda near 30N68W. Fresh to
strong winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it
shifts ENE through early next week, impacting zones mainly north
of 25N and east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and
building seas are expected over the waters off northeast Florida
late this weekend through early Mon.
$$
MT/EC/SDR
Active Tropical Systems
- Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:37:41 +0000: Tropical Storm Arlene Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:37:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Jun 2023 21:23:10 GMT - Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:36:22 +0000: Tropical Storm Arlene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 02 2023000 FONT12 KNHC 022036 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023 2100 UTC FRI JUN 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI - Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:36:22 +0000: Tropical Storm Arlene Forecast Discussion Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023000 WTNT42 KNHC 022036 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Arlene has changed little during the last few hours. The low-level center is still estimated to be near the southwest side of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier Hurricane Hunter data and a Dvorak 2.5 classification from TAFB. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a relatively small region of about 60 n mi to the north of the center in the area of strongest thunderstorms. Arlene is currently moving to the south-southeast at about 5 kt and is being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough that it is embedded within. This overall motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. Although Arlene has strengthened a little today, the models are in good agreement that increasing vertical wind shear and notably drier air are expected to affect the cyclone beginning tonight. These conditions should cause a weakening trend, and Arlene is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday. The main hazard expected from Arlene is the potential for heavy rain over portions of south and central Florida through Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 26.4N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 25.3N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 24.0N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 23.2N 83.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
- Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:35:54 +0000: Tropical Storm Arlene Public Advisory Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023000 WTNT32 KNHC 022035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 ...ARLENE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 85.8W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 85.8 West. Arlene is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster south-southeast motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Arlene is expected to weaken by tonight, and it is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts up to 6 inches are possible through Saturday across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. The heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
- Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:35:54 +0000: Summary for Tropical Storm Arlene (AT2/AL022023) - NHC Atlantic
...ARLENE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 the center of Arlene was located near 26.4, -85.8 with movement SSE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 02 Jun 2023 14:38:50 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 021438 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1045 AM EDT FRI 02 JUNE 2023 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2023 TCPOD NUMBER.....23-003 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: THE 03/0530Z AND THE 03/1730Z FIX REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TEAL 73 AND TEAL 71 MISSIONS LEVIED IN TCPOD 23-002 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WERE CANCELED BY NHC AT 02/1355Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ SEF NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:52:46 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011252
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during November was
above average in terms of the number of named storms and
hurricanes. Two hurricanes (Martin and Nicole) formed in the basin
during November, and Lisa which developed in late October became a
hurricane early in November. Based on a 30-year climatology
(1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one or two
years. Although Martin did not affect land as a tropical cyclone,
Nicole became a hurricane when it was affecting the northwestern
Bahamas, and it became the first November hurricane to make landfall
in Florida since Kate in 1985. Lisa also made landfall in Belize
as a hurricane during the month of November.
Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal
activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but
was slightly below average in terms of the number of major
hurricanes. In 2022, fourteen named storms formed, of which eight
became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or
higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes,
and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
(ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms
and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2022 was slightly
below average. The ACE for 2022 is 80 percent of the long-term
(1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
TS Bonnie 1-9 Jul 115
TS Colin 1-2 Jul 40*
H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
H Lisa 31 Oct-5 Nov 85
H Martin 1-3 Nov 85
H Nicole 7-11 Nov 75
---------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
Facebook Comments