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• Wed, 22 Sep 2021 23:02:10 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 222302
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
  Depression Peter, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico,
  on Tropical Depression Rose, located about 1200 miles west-northwest
  of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on newly designated Tropical
  Depression Eighteen, located about 2000 miles east-southeast of the
  northern Leeward Islands.
  
  A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
  Odette, is located about 600 miles west-northwest of the
  westernmost Azores. This low is expected to be nearly stationary
  over cold waters through Thursday, but it could become a
  subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves southward over
  marginally warmer waters on Friday and Saturday. Strong upper-level
  winds are expected to develop over the system during the weekend,
  which would likely limit its development. Additional information
  on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
  Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
  
  &&
  
  Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued under
  WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
  Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued
  under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
  
  High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
  found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
  online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
  
  $$
  Forecaster Berg
  

• Wed, 22 Sep 2021 23:17:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 222317
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0005 UTC Thu Sep 23 2021
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  2300 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  Peter is expected to become a remnant low soon. At 22/2100 UTC,
  Tropical Depression Peter is centered near 21.7N 66.7W or 200 nm
  N of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
  central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
  kt with gusts to 40 kt. The convection continues to be located
  well to the east of the center due to vertical shear. The
  depression is moving toward the north-northwest. A similar motion
  with gradual turn to the north is expected tonight followed by a
  turn toward the north-northeast tomorrow. Gradual weakening is
  expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to
  degenerate into a remnant low tonight or tomorrow. Please, read
  the read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
  Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
  MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Peter NHC Forecast/Advisory and
  Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
  
  Tropical Depression Rose is centered near 24.2N 40.2W at 22/2100
  UTC or 1030 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 9 kt.
  Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
  wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Rose is a swirl of low-
  level clouds, with the only significant convection occurring
  about 120 nm southeast of the center. The depression is moving
  toward the west-northwest. A northwestward motion is expected
  tonight, with a turn toward the north forecast by Thursday night.
  A motion toward the northeast is expected on Friday. Gradual
  weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose
  is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area on
  Thursday or Thursday night. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS
  FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website-
  https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rose
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
  for more details.
  
  Another Tropical Depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic,
  and it is expected to strengthen over the next several days. The
  depression is forecast to become a tropical storm (named Sam) by
  tomorrow, and could be near hurricane intensity by the weekend.
  At 22/2100 UTC, Tropical Depression Eighteen is centered near
  10.1N 33.9W moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
  is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
  40 kt. The depression is moving toward the west and this motion
  is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a
  gradual turn to the west-northwest by Friday. Please, read the
  latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
  at website- https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
  latest T.D. Eighteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
  at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
  
  A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
  Odette, is located more than 500 miles west-northwest of the
  westernmost Azores. This low is beginning to develop more
  concentrated shower activity and could become a subtropical or
  tropical cyclone as it moves slowly across marginally warm waters
  over the north-central Atlantic Ocean during the next several days.
  However, by the weekend, this system is expected to move south into
  an environment of strong upper-level winds. Additional information
  on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in the
  latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center
  at website-
  https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?=idNFDHSFA1.
  This system has a medium chance of subtropical or tropical
  cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please, see the latest
  Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
  
  ...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
  At this moment, no tropical waves are in the analysis/surface
  map between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and across the
  Caribbean Sea.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
  near 14N17W then continues SW and W to 10N33W to 08N40W. The
  ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N50W to NE Venezuela. No significant
  convection is noted along the monsoon trough or ITCZ.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  An early season cold front is moving across the Gulf region and
  extends from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh
  to strong northerly winds are noted per scatterometer data in the
  wake of the front. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms
  are observed along the frontal boundary. Similar convective
  activity is seen once again across the Florida Peninsula. Plenty
  of moisture in a southerly wind flow will persist over South Florida
  on Thu, keeping the likelihood of more showers and thunderstorms.
  A diffluent pattern aloft is also helping to induce this convective
  activity.
  
  For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move southeastward
  through Thu, stall from roughly Fort Myers, Florida to the coast
  of Veracruz, Mexico near 18N95W Fri, then dissipate Sat. Fresh
  to strong winds will follow the front over the northwest and
  north-central Gulf into tonight. Fresh to strong winds will funnel
  along the coast of Veracruz Thu, with seas building to 9 ft.
  Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across basin from Sat
  and into early next week as high pressure builds over the northern
  Gulf. Of note, this cold front will support the first gap wind
  event, with minimal gale force northerly winds, in the Tehuantepec
  region tonight into Thu morning.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Please read the Special Features section above for details on
  Tropical Depression Peter located about 200 nm N of San Juan
  Puerto Rico.
  
  An upper-level trough extends from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias
  a Dios, Nicaragua. A diffluent pattern aloft, on the W side of
  this trough, continues to enhance scattered to numerous showers
  and thunderstorms over Cuba, including the Isle of Youth as well
  as over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala. Strong
  southwesterly flow on the E side of the same trough is helping to
  induce convection over most of Hispaniola. Showers and thunderstorms
  have also flared-up over northern Colombia and parts of Panama,
  Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The eastern extent of the eastern Pacific
  monsoon trough is also contributing to the development of this
  convection. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin
  with seas generally of 2-4 ft. Seas of 3-4 ft are noted across
  the Caribbean passages.
  
  For the forecast, newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen well
  east of the area is forecast to gradually strengthen to a hurricane
  as it reaches near 53W on Mon. Expect for trades winds to increase
  and seas to build over the far eastern part of the tropical north
  Atlantic waters beginning Mon. Meanwhile trade winds over the south-
  central Caribbean will diminish through Thu night. Fresh trade
  winds will expand westward in coverage from the eastern Caribbean
  to the western Caribbean from late Fri through the weekend, then
  diminish over the western Caribbean early next week.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  Please read the Special Features section above for details on
  Tropical Depression Peter, Tropical Depression Rose, and newly
  formed Tropical Depression Eighteen.
  
  The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary
  Islands has been erupting since 19/1410 UTC. The volcano is still
  emitting ashes, mainly around the volcano drifting SSW below
  10,000 ft, and NE above 10,000 ft. Marine and aviation interests
  should monitor this on-going situation by reading Volcanic Ash
  Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes
  /la-palma/. The next advisory will be issue no later than 23/0300
  UTC.
  
  A stationary front extends from 31N43W to 27N60W to 28N75W to the
  coast of South Carolina. Scattered showers are along the frontal
  boundary. E of the front, a ridge continues to dominate the Atlantic
  waters E of 35W, including the Azores, Madeiras and Canary Islands.
  Mainly light to gentle NE to E winds are observed per satellite
  derived wind data under the influence of the ridge. Moderate to
  fresh NE winds are noted off southern Morocco and Mauritania to
  near 22W.
  
  For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move off the northeast
  Florida coast tonight, continue to the southeast Thu, stall from
  31N77W to near Fort Pierce, Florida by late Fri, then dissipate
  through early Sat evening.
  
  $$
  GR
  

• Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:47 +0000: Tropical Depression Eighteen Graphics - NHC Atlantic
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:47 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:48 GMT
• Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 +0000: Tropical Depression Rose Graphics - NHC Atlantic
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 GMT
• Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:42 +0000: Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 16 - NHC Atlantic
  Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

  
  000
  WTNT42 KNHC 230238
  TCDAT2
   
  Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number  16
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
  1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
   
  Rose continues to be devoid of deep convection as shear and dry
  mid-level air has taken their toll on the system.  Although Rose
  appears to be well on its way to post-tropical cyclone status, it
  seems prudent to maintain advisories a little longer since the
  system is over warm waters and some convection could return
  overnight.  If that does not occur, Rose is likely to become
  a remnant low by tomorrow morning, and that is what is indicated in
  the official forecast.  The remnant low is forecast to continue to
  gradually spin down over the next day or two. The GFS and ECMWF
  suggest that some convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h time
  period when the remnants of Rose interact with an upper-level
  trough, but the NHC forecast once again does not call for
  re-generation at that time. In fact, the latest forecast calls for
  the system to become an open trough by 96 h, which is supported by
  the GFS.
   
  Rose has continued to move west-northwestward or 285/9 kt.  The
  cyclone should turn northwestward very soon as it moves around the
  western flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Rose or its remnants
  should then turn northward, northeastward, and then eventually
  east-northeastward as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the
  east-central Atlantic.  The latest guidance envelope has again
  shifted westward in the short term, and the updated NHC track
  forecast has been adjusted accordingly. After 36 h, the official
  forecast lies near the previous advisory and is close to the
  various consensus aids.
   
   
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
  INIT  23/0300Z 24.6N  40.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
   12H  23/1200Z 25.7N  41.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   24H  24/0000Z 27.2N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   36H  24/1200Z 28.4N  41.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   48H  25/0000Z 29.0N  39.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   60H  25/1200Z 29.5N  36.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   72H  26/0000Z 30.2N  33.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
   
  $$
  Forecaster Brown
   
  

• Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:42 +0000: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
  Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

  
  000
  WTNT43 KNHC 230238
  TCDAT3
   
  Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number   2
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182021
  1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
   
  The depression's organization has not improved since earlier this 
  afternoon.  An analysis of the ambiguities from 0000 UTC ASCAT-B 
  data suggests that the surface circulation is just barely closed, 
  with the center still attached to the northern end of a trough.  
  Peak wind retrievals from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt, so 
  the initial intensity remains 30 kt.
  
  Based on the ASCAT data, the depression appears to be moving just 
  north of due west, or 275/13 kt.  Low- to mid-level ridging to the 
  north is expected to maintain the cyclone on a westward heading for 
  the next 36 hours, followed by a path toward the west-northwest 
  from day 2 through day 5.  The more notable part of the forecast is 
  the forward speed.  Global models are showing anomalously strong 
  500-mb ridging developing over the eastern and central Caribbean 
  Sea in 2 to 3 days, which is likely to block the depression's 
  forward progress toward the end of the forecast period.  In fact, 
  the current NHC forecast has the system moving west-northwestward 
  at only 7 or 8 kt well east of the Lesser Antilles on days 3 through 
  5.  All this means that it will probably be a few more days before 
  we have a better idea if and how the system might potentially 
  threaten areas farther west.  For the 5-day forecast period, there 
  is a normal amount of spread among the track guidance, and the 
  updated NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA 
  consensus aids.  This solution is not too different from the 
  previous forecast.
   
  Overall, an environment of low shear, warm sea surface 
  temperatures, and a moist, unstable atmosphere appears conducive 
  for strengthening.  However, there is some sort of signal being 
  conveyed by the global models (e.g., the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) 
  whereby the cyclone's surface circulation does not really tighten 
  up for another 24 to 48 hours.  Given the system's current 
  structure, this scenario seems plausible.  Therefore, the updated 
  NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening during 
  the first 48 hours, just a bit below the intensity consensus in 
  deference to the global model solutions.  After 48 hours, the 
  official forecast converges on top of the previous NHC forecast and 
  still brings the cyclone to hurricane, and then possibly major 
  hurricane, strength by the end of the forecast period.  
  
   
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
  INIT  23/0300Z 10.2N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
   12H  23/1200Z 10.4N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
   24H  24/0000Z 10.9N  39.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
   36H  24/1200Z 11.4N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
   48H  25/0000Z 12.0N  44.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
   60H  25/1200Z 12.6N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
   72H  26/0000Z 13.2N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
   96H  27/0000Z 14.5N  50.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
  120H  28/0000Z 16.0N  53.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
   
  $$
  Forecaster Berg
   
  

• Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:13 +0000: Summary for Tropical Depression Rose (AT2/AL172021) - NHC Atlantic
  ...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Rose was located near 24.6, -40.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

• Wed, 22 Sep 2021 14:51:38 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 221451
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1050 AM EDT WED 22 SEPTEMBER 2021
   SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
            VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2021
            TCPOD NUMBER.....21-114
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   $$
   WJM
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Wed, 01 Sep 2021 12:43:05 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011242
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during August was
  above normal in terms of the numbers of named storms, hurricanes,
  and major hurricanes. Six named storms formed in the Atlantic basin
  in August, with three of them becoming hurricanes, and two of those
  becoming major hurricanes. Grace was a category 3 hurricane when it
  made landfall just south of Tuxpan, Mexico, on 22 August, and Ida
  was a category 4 hurricane when it made landfall near Port Fourchon,
  Louisiana, on 29 August. One tropical depression formed on the last
  day of the month. Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), 3 or
  4 named storms typically develop in August, with one or two of them
  becoming hurricanes. A major hurricane forms in August every 1 to 2
  years.
  
  In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
  strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity
  in the basin so far in 2021 is above normal, almost 25 percent
  above the long-term mean. The 11 named storms through the end of
  August is well above the 30-year (1991-2020) average of 6 to 7
  named storms by the end of the month.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2021&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Ana 22-23 May 45*
  TS Bill 14-16 Jun 60
  TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
  TS Danny 28-29 Jun 45
  H Elsa 1-9 Jul 85
  TS Fred 11-18 Aug 65
  MH Grace 13-21 Aug 125
  H Henri 16-23 Aug 75
  MH Ida 26 Aug- 150
  TS Kate 28 Aug- 45
  TS Julian 29-30 Aug 60
  TD Twelve 31 Aug- 35
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit