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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Fri, 25 Jun 2021 05:52:13 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  891
  ABNT20 KNHC 250552
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  200 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  A strong tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic off
  the African coast is producing a broad and disorganized area of
  showers and a few thunderstorms. As the system moves west-
  northwestward into the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few
  days, conditions appear at best only marginally conducive for
  development due to relatively cool ocean temperatures. However, some
  development of this system is still possible by early next week.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Beven
  
  

• Fri, 25 Jun 2021 05:53:24 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 250553
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0605 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  0500 UTC.
  
  ...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
  A tropical wave is just off the coast of Africa with an axis near
  18W from 16N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
  convection is from 03N to 12N east of 21W. This tropical wave has
  a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48
  hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more information.
  
  The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W and from 16N southward,
  moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 09N
  between 36W and 39W and from 02N to 05N between 32W and 38W.
  
  The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W from 11N southward to 06N,
  moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to
  09N between 47W and 52W.
  
  The axis of a tropical wave is near the Lesser Antilles along 61.5W
  from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
  convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 54W and 57W.
  Additional scattered moderate convection is noted inland over
  E Venezuela and W Guyana.
  
  The axis of a tropical wave is near 78.5W from 19N southward,
  moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the SW
  Caribbean south of 12N and in the NW Caribbean between Cuba,
  Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
  Senegal near 14N17W to 07N22W to 05N39W. The ITCZ then continues
  from 05N39W to 05N45W. Aside from convection noted in the
  tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted
  south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 04N between 21W and 27W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  The only surface feature in the Gulf of Mexico tonight is the
  diurnal trough along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
  which is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 20N and
  east of 93W in the SE Bay of Campeche. This trough is also
  producing fresh to locally strong E-NE winds offshore of the NW
  Yucatan Peninsula, from 20N to 22N between 89W and 92W. High
  pressure ridging prevails across the rest of the Gulf. Light to
  gentle E winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate
  E-SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft range in western and central
  Gulf and 2-4 ft the eastern Gulf.
  
  For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the
  northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will prevail
  through early next week. A diurnally induced trough will bring
  fresh to locally strong E to SE winds NW of the Yucatan peninsula
  tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
  across the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  In the NW Caribbean, a weak surface trough is analyzed from the
  coast of Cuba near 22N81W southward to 18N81W. This feature and a
  nearby tropical wave are producing scattered showers between Cuba,
  Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. A weak pressure gradient
  prevails over the Caribbean waters, supporting moderate trades
  over most of the Caribbean, The exception is in the central
  Caribbean within 80 nm of the coast of Colombia where trades are
  locally fresh, and in the NW Caribbean where trades are light to
  gentle. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, and
  2-4 ft in the western Caribbean.
  
  For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the
  basin through the weekend. Sunday night, fresh to strong easterly
  winds will return to the south-central Caribbean and to the Gulf
  of Honduras by Tue. A tropical wave is expected to move across the
  eastern Caribbean tonight into Sat. This will enhance convection
  in this area through Sat and shift to the central Caribbean by
  Sun.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A surface trough is analyzed across the waters off the coast of
  Florida, from 25N81W to 30N89W. Scattered showers and isolated moderate
  convection is within 140 nm east of this trough. A second surface
  trough is analyzed from 29N55W to 25N56W. This surface trough, in
  association with an upper level low, is producing scattered
  moderate convection within 120 nm of the trough axis. Light to
  gentle trades are noted north of the Bahamas off the coast of
  Florida. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder
  of the discussion waters, except near the Cabo Verde Islands where
  NE winds are fresh to locally strong. Seas are 3-6 ft across most
  of the Atlantic, except 6-9 ft in the area of fresh winds near
  the Cabo Verde Islands.
  
  For the forecast, the frontal boundary will dissipate across
  north Florida and off the U.S. eastern seaboard. This boundary
  will enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
  western Atlantic mainly west of 76W and N of 25N. Quiescent
  conditions are expected during the weekend. A surface trough is to
  move northwest Fri through Sun, staying north of the Lesser and
  Greater Antilles.
  
  $$
  Mahoney
  

• Fri, 25 Jun 2021 05:52:16 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 250552
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  200 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  A strong tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic off
  the African coast is producing a broad and disorganized area of
  showers and a few thunderstorms. As the system moves west-
  northwestward into the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few
  days, conditions appear at best only marginally conducive for
  development due to relatively cool ocean temperatures. However, some
  development of this system is still possible by early next week.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Beven
  
• Fri, 25 Jun 2021 05:52:16 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
  No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 25 Jun 2021 06:15:45 GMT

• Thu, 24 Jun 2021 13:46:20 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 241336
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   0935 AM EDT THU 24 JUNE 2021
   SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
            VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUNE 2021
            TCPOD NUMBER.....21-024
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   $$
   SEF
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Tue, 01 Dec 2020 12:51:50 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011251
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the month of
  November was extremely active, with two tropical cyclones developing
  during the month and a third tropical cyclone, Eta, continuing from
  the end of October. Two of the storms, Eta and Iota, became major
  hurricanes, with Iota becoming the latest observed category 5
  hurricane on record in the North Atlantic basin. Both Eta and Iota
  made landfall in Nicaragua as major hurricanes in nearly the same
  location. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), a tropical
  storm forms in the basin in November every one to two years, a
  hurricane forms every other year, and a major hurricane forms every
  seven to eight years.
  
  Overall, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active,
  with well above normal activity for the season. A record thirty
  named storms formed, with thirteen becoming hurricanes and six
  becoming major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on the
  Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the long-term
  average of twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and three major
  hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
  reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
  Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical
  storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in 2020 was 75
  percent above the long-term mean.
  
  A record twelve named storms made landfall in the United States in
  2020, with an additional storm, Arthur, not making landfall but
  producing tropical storm force winds along the coast of North
  Carolina.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Arthur 16-19 May 60*
  TS Bertha 27-28 May 50*
  TS Cristobal 1-9 Jun 60
  TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
  TS Edouard 4-6 Jul 45
  TS Fay 9-11 Jul 60
  TS Gonzalo 21-25 Jul 65
  H Hanna 23-27 Jul 90
  H Isaias 30 Jul-5 Aug 85
  TD Ten 31 Jul-1 Aug 35
  TS Josephine 11-16 Aug 45
  TS Kyle 14-16 Aug 50
  MH Laura 20-28 Aug 150
  H Marco 20-25 Aug 75
  H Nana 1-4 Sep 75
  TS Omar 31 Aug-5 Sep 40
  H Paulette 7-22 Sep 105
  TS Rene 7-14 Sep 50
  H Sally 11-17 Sep 105
  MH Teddy 12-22 Sep 140
  TS Vicky 14-17 Sep 50
  TS Wilfred 18-20 Sep 40
  SS Alpha 18 Sep 50
  TS Beta 17-22 Sep 60
  TS Gamma 2-5 Oct 70
  MH Delta 4-10 Oct 145
  MH Epsilon 19-26 Oct 115
  H Zeta 24-29 Oct 110
  MH Eta 31 Oct-13 Nov 150
  TS Theta 10-15 Nov 70
  MH Iota 13-18 Nov 160
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit