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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2022 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Mon, 23 May 2022 11:21:17 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 231121
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Southeastern United States:
    An area of low pressure moved inland overnight along the
    north-central Gulf of Mexico coast, and is now located over
    south-central Alabama. The low is expected to continue to move
    over land today, and tropical cyclone development is not expected.
    However, locally heavy rains associated with this system will
    continue to spread northeastward across portions of the
    southeastern United States over the next day or so. Additional
    information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
    products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
    Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
    Prediction Center.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 23 May 2022 10:37:12 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 231037
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Mon May 23 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1030 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W from 12N southward,
    moving westward 15 knots. This feature remains poorly organized
    and drier air associated with Saharan dust is preventing any
    shower or thunderstorm activity near the wave axis.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 15N southward,
    moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
    convection is evident over eastern Venezuela near the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
    near 10N14W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 00N48W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 10W
    and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is also evident from 00N to
    05N between 44W and 50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Squalls associated with a small but vigorous low pressure area
    that went ashore over the western Florida Panhandle overnight
    delivered a peak wind of 48 kt to Pensacola, Florida. Latest
    observations show SW winds off the coast of the western Florida
    Panhandle and the Alabama coast gradually diminishing as the low
    moves farther inland.

    Farther south, clusters of strong thunderstorms were active
    across much of the west-central Gulf. This was related with a
    negatively tilted trough in the mid to upper levels of the
    atmosphere moving across the northwest Gulf. Outflows from these
    thunderstorms brought gusts to gale force across much of the west-
    central Gulf. Buoy 42055 located at 22N94W registered a brief
    sustained wind to 35 kt under a convective cell late yesterday
    evening. Per buoy reports and an altimeter satellite pass, wave
    heights increased to 10 ft over parts of the western Gulf
    overnight due to the convective winds. The thunderstorms have
    since dissipated and winds and seas are rapidly subsiding over the
    western Gulf accordingly.

    Meanwhile, a frontal boundary has stalled from southeast
    Louisiana to the mouth of the Rio Grande, and will likely start to
    dissipate today. Farther east, a surface trough reaches from the
    western Florida Panhandle to just off the northwest Yucatan
    Peninsula. A new cluster of convection is starting to develop
    over the north- central Gulf near 26N90W, where the upper trough
    is interacting with the surface trough. Moderate E to SE winds and
    4 to 6 ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf, with slightly
    higher winds and seas over the Straits of Florida.

    For the forecast, rough seas over parts of the western Gulf are
    associated with outflows from strong thunderstorms that were
    active over the central Gulf but are diminishing currently,
    allowing the wave heights to subside through the morning. Farther
    east, the trough reaching from Pensacola, Florida to the
    northwest Yucatan Peninsula will move to the northwest of the area
    through tonight. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE
    winds Tue and Wed with moderate seas. Looking ahead, a cold front
    is expected to move into the western Gulf Thu and weaken as it
    reaches from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It
    will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to
    moderate seas Fri.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The main drivers impacting Caribbean weather continue to be a
    strong subtropical ridge north of the area and lower pressure over
    the eastern Pacific and southern Mexico. Scatterometer satellite
    passes from the past several hours show fresh to strong E winds
    off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia, as well as a large
    area of fresh E winds over the northwest Caribbean. Concurrent
    ship observations and an altimeter satellite pass confirmed 8 to
    10 ft seas were still present over the central Caribbean. Buoy
    observations indicate 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere. This pattern shows
    there is a subtle weakening trend in place with the areal extent
    of the strong winds and rough seas decreasing from earlier. This
    is indicative of a weaker pressure pattern setting up, to include
    a weaker ridge to the north and rising pressure over Central
    America. Nonetheless, there is still enough low level moisture
    and convergence to support clusters of heavy rainfall across much
    of the Northern Triangle areas of Central America and into
    southern Mexico. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts that are
    issued by your local or national meteorological agency for more
    information concerning rainfall in these areas.

    For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish some today and
    tonight, then more on Tue as the gradient weakens. Fresh to
    strong east to southeast winds will continue to pulse over the
    Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia through the latter part of the
    week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    The subtropical ridge extends east to west along 31N/32N west of
    55W, anchored by 1024 mb high pressure near 31N68W. This is
    supporting moderate to fresh E trade winds south of 24N and west
    of 70W with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters, and gentle to moderate
    breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere west of 55W. Farther east, a
    cold front reaches from 31N44W to 25N57W to 26N65W. Moderate NW
    winds follow the front, along with 4 to 6 ft seas in NW swell.
    Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted off the
    African coast north of 20N. Elsewhere gentle to moderate breezes
    and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted. Saharan Air and suspended dust cover
    much of the trade wind region and into the eastern Caribbean Sea.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure extending along
    31N/32N will remain nearly stationary through Tue while it
    gradually weakens. It will shift eastward Thu through Fri night
    ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S.
    The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to
    moderate winds across the region through the period, except for
    pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds between Hispaniola and the
    southeastern Bahamas. Moderate northeast swell may impact the
    waters east of 60W through Tue, then subside into Wed.

    $$
    Christensen

Active Tropical Systems

  • Tue, 24 May 2022 23:21:17 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
  • Mon, 23 May 2022 11:21:17 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 231121
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Southeastern United States:
    An area of low pressure moved inland overnight along the
    north-central Gulf of Mexico coast, and is now located over
    south-central Alabama. The low is expected to continue to move
    over land today, and tropical cyclone development is not expected.
    However, locally heavy rains associated with this system will
    continue to spread northeastward across portions of the
    southeastern United States over the next day or so. Additional
    information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
    products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
    Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
    Prediction Center.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Thu, 31 Mar 2022 13:00:59 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 311300
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     0900 AM EDT THU 31 MARCH 2022
     SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2022
              WSPOD NUMBER.....21-121
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS
            DICTATE OTHERWISE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Wed, 01 Dec 2021 12:30:41 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011230
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Wed Dec 1 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    No tropical cyclones formed in the basin during November. However,
    Tropical Storm Wanda continued from the end of October through the
    first seven days of November. Based on a 30-year climatology
    (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one to two
    years.

    Overall, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
    activity. Twenty-one named storms formed, of which seven became
    hurricanes and four became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher
    on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the
    long-term averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major
    hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which
    measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and
    hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2021 was also above normal,
    about 20 percent above the long-term (1991-2020) mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2021&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Ana 22-23 May 45*
    TS Bill 14-15 Jun 65*
    TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
    TS Danny 27-29 Jun 45*
    H Elsa 1- 9 Jul 85
    TS Fred 11-17 Aug 65*
    MH Grace 13-21 Aug 125
    H Henri 16-23 Aug 75
    MH Ida 26 Aug- 1 Sep 150
    TS Kate 28 Aug- 1 Sep 45
    TS Julian 28-30 Aug 60*
    MH Larry 31 Aug-11 Sep 125
    TS Mindy 8-10 Sep 45
    H Nicholas 12-16 Sep 75
    TS Odette 17-18 Sep 45*
    TS Peter 19-22 Sep 50
    TS Rose 19-23 Sep 50
    MH Sam 22 Sep- 5 Oct 150
    STS Teresa 24-25 Sep 45
    TS Victor 29 Sep- 4 Oct 65
    TS Wanda 31 Oct- 7 Nov 50
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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