2023 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Wed, 24 Apr 2024 20:08:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 242007
  TWOAT
  
  Special Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  410 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  East-Central Subtropical Atlantic:
  An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the
  Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area
  of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this
  morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10
  to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and
  tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.
  
  No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
  this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled
  Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special
  Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the
  remainder of the off-season.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Berg/Brown
  

• Sat, 27 Apr 2024 05:56:50 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 270556
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0605 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  0540 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 03N16W
  02N24W 02N32W, to the Equator along 37W, to the Equator along 40W.
  Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to
  the south of the line 08N12W 07N30W 06N40W 05N52W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through
  the far west of Texas, to 23N100W, through the Isthmus of
  Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to west central Guatemala.
  A broad surface trough is in the Gulf of Mexico from the Texas/
  Louisiana border to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Surface
  anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area. The GFS model
  for 700 mb shows a trough that extends from the middle Texas Gulf
  coast to the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS
  model for 700 mb shows anticyclonic wind flow in the eastern half
  of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level westerly wind flow is pushing
  high level moisture from Mexico into most of the Gulf of Mexico.
  
  Moderate to rough seas have been from 24N to 28N between 92W and
  97W. Slight seas are from 25N northward from 86W eastward. Moderate
  seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong
  SE winds are in the Gulf of Mexico.
  
  Tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge in the NW Atlantic
  and lower pressures in the central US and Mexico will support
  fresh to strong southeast winds over much of the Gulf through Sun
  night. Seas are expected to peak near 11 ft in the NW Gulf Sat
  night and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong
  speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the
  forecast period.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  A surface trough remains in the eastern half of the Dominican
  Republic. Precipitation: scattered moderate spans Hispaniola in
  particular. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
  to widely scattered moderate, are in the Caribbean Sea, to the
  east of the line that runs from 14N83W at the coast of Nicaragua
  beyond the Windward Passage. Heavy rains and flooding have been
  occurring in Hispaniola during the last 8 days to 10 days. It is
  possible that continual amounts of rain may help to increase the
  chances for flash flooding in inland areas, especially in hilly
  terrain and in low-lying areas. Please, refer to bulletins from
  your local weather service offices, for more details about this
  event.
  
  Slight seas are within 60 nm of the coasts of Nicaragua and
  Honduras from 14N to 16N; from 20N northward between 80W and 82W;
  and within 120 nm of the Gulf of Honduras from 86W westward.
  Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to
  strong NE winds are in the Windward Passage; and within 120 nm of
  the coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the
  remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
  
  The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
  at 27/0000 UTC, are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe. This information is from
  the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.
  
  Strong ridge off New England will force fresh to strong trade
  winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and
  south of Hispaniola through early next week. Seas will peak near 8
  ft during the strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
  winds will prevail in the rest of the basin.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A surface trough is along 31N60W 25N66W, through the eastern half
  of the Dominican Republic, to 16N70W in the Caribbean Sea.
  Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
  Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 45W and 76W. Moderate
  seas are between 50W and 70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from
  the surface trough northward between 60W and 70W. Moderate and
  slower winds are from 20N to the surface trough between 58W and
  the surface trough.
  
  A cold front is passing through 31N70W, to 29N78W. The cold front
  is dissipating, from 29N78W, northwestward to 30N83W in Florida.
  Precipitation: isolated moderate is from the cold front northward.
  Strong NE to E winds are from 30N to 33N between 76W and 80W.
  Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from 80W westward. Moderate
  seas are from 30N northward from 70W westward. Slight seas are
  from 30N southward from 70W westward.
  
  A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 18N41W. Precipitation:
  broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are
  from 13N to 22N between 35W and 45W. Other similar clouds and
  precipitation are from 10N to 20N between 45W and 60W. Fresh NE
  winds are from 23N northward between 33W and 44W. Moderate to
  fresh NE winds are from 23N northward from 33W eastward. Mostly
  moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the
  Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet, just
  less than rough seas, from 16N to 30N between 33W and 51W.
  Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
  
  Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward from 40W
  eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
  25N27W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 20N to 30N
  between 28W and 40W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
  multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are in the areas of
  the upper level cyclonic wind flow.
  
  A cold front currently south of 30N and W of 70W will merge with
  a frontal trough that extends from 31N61W to the eastern Dominican
  Republic tonight. The front will reach from near 31N58W to
  eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by
  Sun morning, then stall and weaken over the far southeastern part
  late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind the front will
  build seas to a peak of 12 ft over northeast offshore waters by
  Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will
  result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the
  front from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, fresh winds will
  prevail in the wake of the weakening front and continue through
  Mon. Tranquil conditions are expected Tue as high pressure becomes
  centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with the
  induced gradient supporting fresh northeast to east winds over the
  southern waters.
  
  $$
  mt/sd
  

• Wed, 24 Apr 2024 01:42:49 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

• Mon, 01 Apr 2024 14:54:44 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 011454
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1100 AM EDT MON 01 APRIL 2024
   SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
            VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z APRIL 2024
            WSPOD NUMBER.....23-123
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS
          DICTATE OTHERWISE.
   
   $$
   SEF
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Fri, 01 Dec 2023 12:58:54 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011258
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  No tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic basin in the month of
  November. Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), a tropical
  storm forms in November once every year or two, and a hurricane
  forms once every two years. A disturbance (Potential Tropical
  Cyclone Twenty-Two) caused heavy rains and flooding across portions
  of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola during the middle part of
  the month, but the system did not become a tropical cyclone.
  
  Overall, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had above-normal
  activity in terms of the number of named storms but a normal amount
  of activity in terms of the number of hurricanes and major
  hurricanes. In 2023, 20 storms of at least tropical storm strength
  formed, of which 7 became hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes
  (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
  This compares to the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named
  storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of
  Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and
  duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin
  in 2023 was about 20 percent above average compared to the long-term
  (1991-2020) mean.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
  National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  -----------------------------------------------------------
  Unnamed STS 16-17 Jan 70*
  TS Arlene 1-3 Jun 40*
  TS Bret 19-24 Jun 70*
  TS Cindy 22-26 Jun 60*
  H Don 14-24 Jul 75*
  TS Emily 20-21 Aug 50*
  MH Franklin 20 Aug- 1 Sep 150
  TS Gert 19- 4 Sep 60*
  TS Harold 21-23 Aug 50
  MH Idalia 26-31 Aug 130
  TS Jose 29 Aug- 1 Sep 60
  TS Katia 1- 4 Sep 60
  MH Lee 5-16 Sep 165
  H Margot 7-17 Sep 90
  H Nigel 15-22 Sep 100
  TS Ophelia 22-24 Sep 70
  TS Philippe 23 Sep- 6 Oct 50
  TS Rina 28 Sep- 1 Oct 50*
  TS Sean 11-15 Oct 45
  H Tammy 18-29 Oct 105
  TD Twenty-One 23-24 Oct 30
  -----------------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit