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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2023 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Mon, 16 Jan 2023 15:02:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 161502
    TWOAT

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
    subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

    Northwestern Atlantic:
    A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
    Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
    storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
    thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
    mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
    northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
    much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
    Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
    subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
    expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
    so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
    can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
    Service.

    No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
    this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    be issued as necessary during the off-season.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
    online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Sun, 05 Feb 2023 17:34:01 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 051733
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
    subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in
    Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in
    the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia,
    through midweek. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 to 13 ft
    during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas
    Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    information.

    Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure is developing off
    the SE US Coast. The low pressure is forecast to move NE and strengthen,
    and will produce gale-force winds tonight into Mon morning N of
    30N between 69W and 76W. Seas are currently 7-11 ft, and are
    expected to build to 10-12 ft by Mon morning. Winds will diminish
    below gale force by Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High
    Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
    more information.

    Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extends from 31N48W to
    26N63W where a stationary front then continues to 26N75W. Large
    and long period swell is analyzed north of the frontal boundaries.
    Seas are 12-16 ft are within an area from 31N61W to 27N71W to
    26N66W and along the fronts to 31N48W. Highest seas within the
    Discussion Area are near 31N52W. Swell direction is NW with a
    period of 12-15 seconds. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted
    behind the fronts. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    information.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
    Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 02N22W. The ITCZ
    begins at 02N22W and continues to 02S45W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted south of 07N and east of 15W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface trough in the E Gulf of Mexico extends from 30N87W to
    24N86W. Recent scatterometer data captured the trough well,
    showing moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds near the trough,
    and an incipient low pressure center developing near 27N87W.
    Scattered showers are evident on satellite near the surface
    trough. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, high pressure maintains gentle
    winds. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin.

    For the forecast, high pressure will continue building across the
    basin. As the high moves E of the area, fresh to locally strong
    SE to S return flow will develop Mon night into Tue, with the
    strongest winds occurring in the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a
    cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed with strong to near-gale
    N winds possible behind it and quickly diminishing as the front
    reaches the central Gulf late Wed into early Thu.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please read the Special Features section above for more details
    about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

    A strong high pressure system centered north of the Caribbean Sea
    supports fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea,
    with near gale force winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas are
    6-8 ft in the central Caribbean, and 8-10 ft off NW Colombia.
    Moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas are noted in the E
    Caribbean. In the SW Caribbean, NE winds are moderate and seas are
    4-6 ft. In the NW Caribbean, E winds are light to gentle with 2-4
    ft seas.

    For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient will continue
    across the central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period.
    Strong trade winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean
    Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into midweek. Seas
    will build to near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Strong
    easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and
    occasionally in the eastern Caribbean into midweek. Building ridge
    will result in fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean Tue into
    Wed.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please read the Special Features section above for details on
    the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic and Significant Swell in the
    Central and Western Atlantic.

    The W Atlantic Waters northeast of the Bahamas and Turks and
    Caicos are experiencing fresh to strong E winds associated with
    the frontal boundaries described in the Special Features section.
    Seas exceed 8 ft north of a line from 31N45W to 22N71W and along
    the Atlantic Exposures of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos to
    31N80W. A surface trough and stationary front over the Florida
    Peninsula is producing some scattered showers and tstorms between
    the coast of Florida and the Northern Bahamas.

    Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds, evident on scatterometer
    data, prevail over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with
    seas of 6-7 ft. The exception is an area of locally strong NE winds
    south of 20N and west of 30W, which has persisted long enough to
    build seas of 8-10 ft in E swell within this area.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary described in
    the Special Features section is forecast to weaken today. The low
    pressure centered off the SE US Coast will move NE into the NW
    Atlantic and strengthen today, with gale- force winds developing
    late tonight into early Mon morning N of 30N and between 69W and
    76W. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon.

    $$
    Mahoney

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Sun, 05 Feb 2023 17:41:24 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 051741
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1245 PM EST SUN 05 FEBRUARY 2023
     SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z FEBRUARY 2023
              WSPOD NUMBER.....22-067
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
            A. 07/0000Z
            B. AFXXX 21WSE IOP28
            C. 06/1730Z
            D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:   
               35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 155.0W, 50.0N 155.0W, AND 50.0N 125.0W
            E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 06/2030Z TO 07/0230Z
     
         2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
         3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
            FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
            PACIFIC FOR THE 09/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:52:46 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011252
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during November was
    above average in terms of the number of named storms and
    hurricanes. Two hurricanes (Martin and Nicole) formed in the basin
    during November, and Lisa which developed in late October became a
    hurricane early in November. Based on a 30-year climatology
    (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one or two
    years. Although Martin did not affect land as a tropical cyclone,
    Nicole became a hurricane when it was affecting the northwestern
    Bahamas, and it became the first November hurricane to make landfall
    in Florida since Kate in 1985. Lisa also made landfall in Belize
    as a hurricane during the month of November.

    Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal
    activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but
    was slightly below average in terms of the number of major
    hurricanes. In 2022, fourteen named storms formed, of which eight
    became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or
    higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
    the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes,
    and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
    (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms
    and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2022 was slightly
    below average. The ACE for 2022 is 80 percent of the long-term
    (1991-2020) mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
    TS Bonnie 1-9 Jul 115
    TS Colin 1-2 Jul 40*
    H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
    H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
    MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
    TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
    MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
    TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
    TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
    TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
    H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
    TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
    H Lisa 31 Oct-5 Nov 85
    H Martin 1-3 Nov 85
    H Nicole 7-11 Nov 75
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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