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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 16 Sep 2024 11:48:58 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161148
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight, located off the coast of the Carolinas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 16 Sep 2024 11:00:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161100
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Gordon is centered near 19.2N 47.5W at
16/0900 UTC or 890 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving
W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak
seas are near 11 ft. A westward motion is expected during the
next day or so, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably
through the middle of the week. Gordon will move to 19.1N 48.3W
this afternoon, 19.3N 49.1W Tue morning, 19.6N 49.5W Tue
afternoon, 19.9N 49.6W Wed morning, 20.7N 49.5W Wed afternoon, and
21.9N 48.9W Thu morning. Gordon will strengthen to a tropical
storm over 24.6N 47.7W early Fri.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W south of 19N,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted in
association to this wave.
A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 20N
southward to western Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed offshore of
Hispaniola.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W extending from 20N
southward through eastern portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and near the far
southern portions of this wave, likely aided by the eastern
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaching across the
southwest Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and
continues southwestward to near 10N36W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 33W and 43W. In
addition, numerous showers and thunderstorm are occurring off the
coast of Senegal southward through Guinea-Bissau.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to the
coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 12N west of 77W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over
the northern Gulf from 89W through coastal Florida. A surface
trough is analyzed from the Straits of Florida to 24N83W, with
minimal convection noted along this trough. Another trough is
analyzed over the western Gulf producing scattered moderate to
locally strong convection off NE Mexico. Elsewhere away from
convection, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas
prevail.
For the forecast, weak high pressure over north-central portions
of the Gulf and a stationary front over the Gulf Coast will
support generally light to gentle winds and slight seas through
the middle of the week. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse
in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. A
cold front moving through the Gulf late week will support moderate
NE winds across the basin.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves moving across the basin.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in northwest
portions of the basin from 19N to the coasts of Jamaica and Cuba
between 79W and 82W in association to a surface trough. Moderate
to fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted in the central
Caribbean. Otherwise, a relatively fair and modest trade-wind
pattern continues across much of the basin, with gentle NE to E
winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft in the northwest
basin.
For the forecast, a modest trade pattern across the Caribbean
will continue to support moderate to fresh E winds and moderate
seas across central portions of the basin to the coast of Honduras
through midweek. Locally strong winds will be possible off the
coast of Colombia and Venezuela through Tue. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate trades and slight seas will prevail across the rest of
the rest of the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on Tropical
Depression Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves
section for details on the wave in the basin.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight is centered near 32.4N783.W.
Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring north
of 30N between 73W and 76W, with widely scattered showers noted
off the east coast of Florida and north of the Bahamas. Fresh to
locally strong winds are likely occurring north of 29N and west of
75W, and moderate to rough seas are noted north of 29W and west of
70W. A stationary front extends southwestward from PTC Eight
through the central coast of Florida, and also extends eastward
from 32.4N783.W to a 1011 mb low near 31N69W to a 1011 mb low near
31N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N to 32N
between 57W and 66W.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away
from Tropical Depression Gordon and the aforementioned areas of
convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight and
the stationary front. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft are occurring across much of the basin east of 50W.
To the west of 50W, light to gentle SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
are analyzed.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will
occur today north of 29N and west of 75W as Potential Tropical
Cyclone Eight moves northwestward, likely moving onshore somewhere
in the Carolinas later today. Moderate to rough seas north of 29N
and west of 70N will slowly subside today. Moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola today
through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE
winds and rough seas will develop Tue north of 25N and east of 60W
as a surface low near 30N50W strengthens. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the
rest of the basin.
$$
ADAMS
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 16 Sep 2024 12:00:20 +0000: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 12:00:20 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 09:29:06 GMT - Mon, 16 Sep 2024 11:57:45 +0000: Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (AT3/AL082024) - NHC Atlantic
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Eight was located near 32.7, -78.2 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph. - Mon, 16 Sep 2024 11:57:45 +0000: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 3A - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 78.2W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 78.2 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm. Weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate strong winds are nearing the coast and will spread onshore during the next few hours. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (91 km/h). NOAA buoy 41037 offshore of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through late this afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
- Mon, 16 Sep 2024 11:48:58 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161148
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight, located off the coast of the Carolinas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
$$
Forecaster Pasch - Mon, 16 Sep 2024 09:12:16 +0000: Local Statement for Wilmington, NC - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 512 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 15 Sep 2024 15:53:02 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 151552 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1155 AM EDT SUN 15 SEPTEMBER 2024 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2024 TCPOD NUMBER.....24-107 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST - AL95) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71 A. 16/1730Z,2330Z A. 17/0530Z B. AFXXX 0308A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0408A CYCLONE C. 16/1545Z C. 17/0345Z D. 32.7N 79.0W D. 33.2N 79.1W E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2330Z E. 17/0500Z TO 17/0830Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. FIX G. FIX H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ SEF NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Sun, 01 Sep 2024 12:10:55 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011210
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone activity this August was a little below normal in
terms of the number of named storms, but closer to normal in terms
of hurricane formations. In total, two hurricanes, Debby and
Ernesto, formed in the basin in August. Based on a 30-year
climatology (1991-2020), between 3-4 named storms typically develop
in August, with 1-2 of them becoming hurricanes. A major hurricane
typically forms in August every 1 to 2 years.
Debby made landfall in Florida in the Big Bend region as a Category
1 hurricane before moving off the eastern U.S. coastline and
making another landfall as a tropical storm in South Carolina.
Ernesto affected the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico with
tropical storm conditions, while later moving directly over
Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane.
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
the basin so far in 2024 is about 50 percent above the long-term
(1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
------------------------------------------------------------------
TS Alberto 19-20 Jun 50
MH Beryl 28 Jun-9 Jul 165
TS Chris 30 Jun-1 Jul 45*
H Debby 3-9 Aug 80
H Ernesto 12-20 Aug 100
------------------------------------------------------------------
Dates are based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
