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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 16 Jan 2023 15:02:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161502
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.
Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as necessary during the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 26 Mar 2023 09:01:25 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 260901
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic
high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will
support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia
through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 13 ft
each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W.
Atlantic large swell event: Large NW swell associated with a
complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic has
propagated into the discussion waters. Seas greater than 12 ft are
covering the waters N of 30N between 42W and 52W, peaking near 13
ft. Seas in excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of
25N and east of 45W Sun and Sun night, before shifting east of 35W
early Mon. Maximum combined seas will be 17 ft near 31N40W late
today. Wave periods will average 12 to 14 seconds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W to 00N21W. The ITCZ continues from 00N21W to 03S37W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
00N to 05N between 05W and 18W, and from 00N to 05N between 23W
and 41W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong
winds are noted north of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range
north of the Yucatan peninsula, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, a surface ridge extending into the central Gulf
from the western Atlantic will dominate the area through Tue.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during
the evening hours through this period. A cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf Tue morning. The front will extend from the
Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night, then
will weaken from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of
Campeche midweek. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected over
the northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed. Moderate to
locally fresh ENE to E winds will prevail across the Bay of
Campeche and southeastern Gulf behind the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
Strong to near gale- force winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean, reaching gale- force within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Strong to near- gale winds are found in the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except gentle
winds in the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, and 6-8 ft over the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere, except 2-4 ft in the lee of
Cuba.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through
the middle of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to
gale- force at night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade
winds will persist in the Windward Passage and north of Hispaniola
through Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
the Gulf of Honduras until Wed afternoon, occasionally reaching
near- gale force locally. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
event expected to begin tonight.
High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 28N65W. Light to gentle
winds are in the vicinity of the high. A cold front extends from
31N43W to 29N50W to 31N58W. Fresh to strong winds are noted on
either side of the front N of 30N. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted W of 70W, as well as S of 20N and W of 50W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of seas
greater than 12 ft, seas of 8-12 ft prevail N of 28N between 35W
and 58W. Seas of 4-6 ft are found west of 65W, and 5-7 ft seas
prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off
the US east coast on Tue evening, then slowly track eastward
north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and
higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the
pressure gradient, generating fresh NE to ENE winds across the
Bahamas by Thu.
$$
AL
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 17 Jan 2023 09:51:06 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 25 Mar 2023 14:26:10 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 251425 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1030 AM EDT SAT 25 MARCH 2023 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MARCH 2023 WSPOD NUMBER.....22-115 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ SEF NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:52:46 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011252
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during November was
above average in terms of the number of named storms and
hurricanes. Two hurricanes (Martin and Nicole) formed in the basin
during November, and Lisa which developed in late October became a
hurricane early in November. Based on a 30-year climatology
(1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one or two
years. Although Martin did not affect land as a tropical cyclone,
Nicole became a hurricane when it was affecting the northwestern
Bahamas, and it became the first November hurricane to make landfall
in Florida since Kate in 1985. Lisa also made landfall in Belize
as a hurricane during the month of November.
Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal
activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but
was slightly below average in terms of the number of major
hurricanes. In 2022, fourteen named storms formed, of which eight
became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or
higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes,
and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
(ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms
and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2022 was slightly
below average. The ACE for 2022 is 80 percent of the long-term
(1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
TS Bonnie 1-9 Jul 115
TS Colin 1-2 Jul 40*
H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
H Lisa 31 Oct-5 Nov 85
H Martin 1-3 Nov 85
H Nicole 7-11 Nov 75
---------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
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