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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2022 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Fri, 12 Aug 2022 23:25:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 122325
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
    Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
    trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of
    Mexico. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow
    to occur while it moves slowly west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
    approaching the Texas coast tonight and Saturday, and moving inland
    over southern Texas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally
    heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through
    the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy
    rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather
    Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. An Air Force
    Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
    system on Saturday, if necessary.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    &&
    For more information on the system, see products issued by the
    National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

    $$
    Forecaster Berg

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Fri, 12 Aug 2022 22:50:33 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 122250
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2230 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 19W, from 20N
    southward, moving W at 10-15 kt based on 700 mb wind speeds. A
    1008 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 14N19W.
    Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity
    of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the
    Monsoon Trough, is west of the wave axis from 07N to 18N and E of
    29W.

    A tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from 23N southward,
    moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
    vicinity of the wave axis, mainly where it meets the monsoon
    trough.

    A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles arc, with axis
    extending along 60W from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15
    kt. No significant convection is noted over the waters at this
    time.

    A tropical wave located in the central Caribbean is along 74W,
    from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
    moderate convection is east of the wave axis, from 16N to 20N
    between 67W and 74W, affecting Hispaniola and La Mona Passage.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 16N17W
    to 1008 mb low pressure near 14N19W to 11N38W to 10N60W. Aside
    from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above,
    scattered showers prevail from 07N to 19N between 41W and 59W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    1014 mb low pressure is centered in the NW Gulf near 29N92W, with
    a trough extending from 30N91W to 25N97W. These features,
    combined with broad surface convergence across the northern Gulf,
    is producing scattered moderate convection across the northern
    half of the basin north of 24N. Winds and seas may be locally
    higher in the convection. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, gentle
    to moderate SE to S winds prevail along the periphery of the
    subtropical Atlantic ridge, with seas of 2-4 ft.

    For the forecast, the weak Atlantic high pressure will sink
    southeast through Tue. This will allow for gentle to moderate
    winds over the basin to weaken to light to gentle into next week.
    Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during the late
    afternoon and evenings off the NW Yucatan peninsula through early
    next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
    associated with a low pressure trough and weak low pressure that
    is along it are over most of the northern Gulf waters. This system
    will drift west-southwestward over the NW Gulf and toward the
    Texas coast during the weekend. Development, if any, of this
    system is expected to be slow to occur. Strong gusty winds and
    rough seas can be expected with this activity. Meanwhile, a weak
    frontal boundary is expected to stall just north of the central
    and NE Gulf during the weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    moving across the basin.

    The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades in
    the eastern and central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades in
    the western Caribbean. A 1010 mb Colombian/Panamanian low is in
    the SW Caribbean near 12N83W, along the extension of the East
    Pacific Monsoon Trough. Scattered moderate convection is to the
    northwest of the low, from 11N to 14N west of 81W including
    coastal regions of Nicaragua.

    For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will drift southward
    and weaken through early next week. Moderate to fresh trade winds
    over the central Caribbean will weaken to moderate Sat through
    Mon, then increase to fresh late Mon through Tue night. A broad
    surface trough accompanies a tropical wave across the central
    Atlantic, and is expected to move across the Tropical N Atlantic
    tonight night through Sat night, across the eastern Caribbean
    early Sun through early Mon, across the central Caribbean Mon
    through late Wed.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    moving across the basin.

    An outflow boundary is analyzed in the deep tropics, from 14N41W
    to 10N43W, moving west at 15-20 kt. E winds to 30 kt were captured
    well in scatterometer data this morning behind this boundary. The
    remainder of the tropical Atlantic continues to be dominated by
    the subtropical ridge located north of the area. NE to E winds are
    gentle to moderate across the basin, except from 18N to 24N east
    of 30W where NE winds are fresh. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 19N and
    west of 55W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in open waters. Seas are locally
    8 ft NE of the Cabo Verde Islands.

    For the forecast W of 55W, the ridge that extends from the
    central Atlantic WSW to northern Florida along 29N, will weaken
    and sink southward through early next week as a frontal boundary
    moves off the eastern seaboard and begins to weaken as it stalls
    from across NE Florida east-northeastward to north of 31N78W.
    Moderate to fresh E winds S of 25N will veer to the SE and weaken
    to gentle early Sat and change little into next week. Light to
    gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through the period. A
    tropical wave will reach the southeast forecast waters by early
    Sat, bringing a slight increase in winds and seas over those
    waters through early Mon. A cold front may move over the waters
    northeast of NE Florida late Tue, then stall and weaken through
    Wed night.

    $$
    ERA

Active Tropical Systems

  • Fri, 12 Aug 2022 23:25:57 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 13 Aug 2022 03:29:49 GMT
  • Fri, 12 Aug 2022 23:25:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 122325
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
    Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
    trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of
    Mexico. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow
    to occur while it moves slowly west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
    approaching the Texas coast tonight and Saturday, and moving inland
    over southern Texas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally
    heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through
    the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy
    rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather
    Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. An Air Force
    Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
    system on Saturday, if necessary.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    &&
    For more information on the system, see products issued by the
    National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

    $$
    Forecaster Berg

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Fri, 12 Aug 2022 15:43:47 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 121543
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1145 AM EDT FRI 12 AUGUST 2022
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2022
              TCPOD NUMBER.....22-078
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO)
            FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
            A. 13/1800Z                   A. 14/0530Z,1130Z
            B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
            C. 13/1630Z                   C. 14/0400Z
            D. 27.5N 95.0W                D. 27.0N 97.0W
            E. 13/1730Z TO 13/2230Z       E. 14/0500Z TO 14/1130Z
            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
            G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST           G. FIX
     
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF/SCW
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Mon, 01 Aug 2022 11:30:09 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011130
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Two tropical storms (Bonnie and Colin) formed in the basin during
    July. Bonnie formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and moved
    across Central America and into the eastern North Pacific basin and
    Colin was a short-lived storm near the Carolina coast. So far,
    seasonal activity has been near average based on the 30-year
    climatology (1991-2020).

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
    the basin so far in 2022 has been a little below average compared
    to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70
    TS Bonnie 1-2 Jul 50
    TS Colin 2-3 Jul 40
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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