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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2022 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Fri, 20 May 2022 23:07:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 202307
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Fri, 20 May 2022 22:49:12 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 202249
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Sat May 21 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2140 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre
    (CAG), is developing across Central America and the adjacent
    southwest Caribbean today. The monsoon trough has begun to shift
    northward across the tropical northeast Pacific, increasing SW
    winds and advecting tropical moisture over Central America. Heavy
    to extreme rainfall is possible over portions of Guatemala, El
    Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama. There is
    potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially across
    mountainous terrain. This event is expected to last through early
    next week. Please refer to products issued by your local weather
    service for more information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 51W, from 01N
    to 14N moving west around 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
    strong convection is noted from 00N-07N between 44W-54W.

    A tropical wave is exiting the far western Caribbean with axis
    south of 19N along 89W and across Central America, moving west
    around 10 kt. Associated convection is occurring over land near
    the wave at this time, and extends across the adjacent Pacific
    waters. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
    behind the wave from 14N-16.5N between 80W-84W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to
    07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 02N45W. Scattered to
    numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N-09W east
    of 25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
    south of 07N between 44W-54W. The eastern North Pacific's monsoon
    trough extends across Central America, along the border of Costa
    Rica and Nicaragua, and extends to 11N75W along the coast of Colombia.
    Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of 14N west
    of 76W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    The gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over NE
    Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE flow across the
    majority of the basin, with strong winds occurring along the SE
    Texas coast. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 4-7 ft in
    the western Gulf. Low level moisture has moved from the southeast
    Gulf this morning to offshore of central Florida, where divergent
    upper-level flow is supporting scattered moderate convection
    from 26.5N-28N and east of 85W. Otherwise, clear to mostly fair
    skies prevail across the basin. Smoke from seasonal agricultural
    fires over Mexico continues to spread northward and is producing
    hazy skies across the western two-thirds of the basin.

    For the forecast, high pressure will build over the western
    Atlantic through Sun as low pressure develops over Central America
    and the Bay of Campeche. This will allow for mostly fresh
    southeast winds over the western Gulf to expand eastward tonight
    into Sat. Fresh to strong southeast winds from the northwestern
    Caribbean Sea will surge into the central Gulf waters and Yucatan
    Channel from from Sat through Sun, diminishing to fresh speeds Sun
    night. Elsewhere, winds and seas will then diminish slightly
    across most of the basin Sun into Mon as the pressure gradient
    relaxes, leaving only pulses of fresh to occasionally strong winds
    at night off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh
    return flow is expected over the western Gulf Mon night through
    Tue night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section for information on a
    potential heavy rainfall event associated with a Central American
    Gyre (CAG).

    The Bermuda High is interacting with lower pressure over Central
    America, associated with the developing Central American Gyre, and
    is forcing fresh to strong E to SE trades over the central and W
    Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades over the E Caribbean. Seas
    are 7-10 ft over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the W
    Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate
    and isolated strong convection is noted from 26.5N-28N and east of
    85W in association with a tropical wave and the developing
    Central American Gyre. Mostly fair and hazy skies prevail
    elsewhere east of 75W as Saharan Air and areas of suspended dust
    have moved into the basin behind the tropical wave.

    For the forecast, winds and seas across the basin will increase
    tonight into the weekend as the western Atlantic ridge
    strengthens and broad low pressure over Central America
    gradually shifts west to northwestward. The strongest winds and
    highest seas are expected to be over parts of the northwestern
    and south-central Caribbean during this period. Looking ahead,
    winds and seas will start to diminish across the basin early
    next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Ridging associated with the Bermuda and Azores Highs stretches
    across the basin along 29N-32N. Winds north of a line from 26N30W
    to 21N57W to 28N80W are gentle or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.
    South of the line and east of 60W, the NE to E trades are
    moderate to fresh and with seas 5-8 ft. Saharan Air and suspended
    dust dominate much of this area producing hazy skies. West of
    60W, moderate SE to S winds prevail with seas 2-4 ft. Southerly
    low level flow across the far eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida and
    the Bahamas has advected moisture northward this afternoon, and
    has erupted into scattered moderate to strong convection from 24N-
    29N west of 71W, and supported by upper-level divergent flow.

    For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along about 28N
    will lift north to 30N through tonight and strengthen. This
    pattern will support mainly gentle to moderate breezes across the
    region through early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds
    north of Hispaniola starting tonight.

    $$
    Stripling

Active Tropical Systems

  • Sun, 22 May 2022 11:07:27 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
  • Fri, 20 May 2022 23:07:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 202307
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Thu, 31 Mar 2022 13:00:59 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 311300
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     0900 AM EDT THU 31 MARCH 2022
     SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2022
              WSPOD NUMBER.....21-121
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS
            DICTATE OTHERWISE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Wed, 01 Dec 2021 12:30:41 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011230
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Wed Dec 1 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    No tropical cyclones formed in the basin during November. However,
    Tropical Storm Wanda continued from the end of October through the
    first seven days of November. Based on a 30-year climatology
    (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one to two
    years.

    Overall, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
    activity. Twenty-one named storms formed, of which seven became
    hurricanes and four became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher
    on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the
    long-term averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major
    hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which
    measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and
    hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2021 was also above normal,
    about 20 percent above the long-term (1991-2020) mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2021&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Ana 22-23 May 45*
    TS Bill 14-15 Jun 65*
    TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
    TS Danny 27-29 Jun 45*
    H Elsa 1- 9 Jul 85
    TS Fred 11-17 Aug 65*
    MH Grace 13-21 Aug 125
    H Henri 16-23 Aug 75
    MH Ida 26 Aug- 1 Sep 150
    TS Kate 28 Aug- 1 Sep 45
    TS Julian 28-30 Aug 60*
    MH Larry 31 Aug-11 Sep 125
    TS Mindy 8-10 Sep 45
    H Nicholas 12-16 Sep 75
    TS Odette 17-18 Sep 45*
    TS Peter 19-22 Sep 50
    TS Rose 19-23 Sep 50
    MH Sam 22 Sep- 5 Oct 150
    STS Teresa 24-25 Sep 45
    TS Victor 29 Sep- 4 Oct 65
    TS Wanda 31 Oct- 7 Nov 50
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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