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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2023 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

2023 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Fri, 29 Sep 2023 17:27:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 291727
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern
    Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over the
    central tropical Atlantic.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Fri, 29 Sep 2023 17:47:29 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 291747
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.3N 55.3W at 29/1500
    UTC or 440 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WSW at 2
    kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
    sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are
    17 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 19N
    between 51W and 56W. Philippe is forecast to continue to move
    very slowly toward the west-southwest through Saturday night. A
    gradual turn toward the west and northwest is forecast Sunday
    and Sunday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
    next few days. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions
    of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the
    Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. These
    swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
    conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
    the National Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
    Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 19.4N 47.0W at 29/1500 UTC
    or 920 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NNW at 5 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 17 ft.
    Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 13.5N to 19.5N
    between 40W and 47W. A northwestward to west-northwestward
    motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected during
    the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during
    the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening through early
    next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
    the National Hurricane Center at website -
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
    Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is near 23W, from 05N to 19N, moving westward at
    10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
    is from 04N to 12N between 16W and 26W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through 14.5N17.5W and moves southward
    to 08.5N27W and to 07N39W. The ITCZ continues from 07N39W to
    06N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
    waves, scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 10N
    between 28W and 35W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends from north of Tampa, Florida to New
    Orleans, Louisiana. While a pre-frontal trough extends from
    south Florida to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This front
    is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the
    northern, central, and eastern Gulf waters. Surface ridging over
    the SE CONUS just N of the front is tightening slightly the
    pressure gradient, thus supporting moderate to locally fresh NE
    to E winds along the northern Gulf waters N of 27N, with seas 2-
    5 ft. Elsewhere outside of convection, light to gentle winds
    with seas 1-4 ft prevail.

    For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue
    across the northern Gulf offshore waters N of 26N with moderate
    seas through the forecast period, expanding to the central basin
    Sun night into Tue. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
    forecast elsewhere through Tue night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An upper level trough located south of Haiti is producing
    scattered moderate convection in the area. Another area of
    convection is depicted in the western Caribbean is association
    to a trough that extends to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from
    the Gulf of Mexico. A weak pressure gradient in the Caribbean is
    supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the
    central Caribbean and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere.
    Seas are slight basin-wide.

    For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N 55.3W at
    11 AM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 2 kt. Maximum
    sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum
    central pressure is 1003 mb. Philippe will move to 18.1N 55.4W
    this evening, 17.8N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.1W Sat evening,
    17.3N 56.5W Sun morning, 17.5N 56.9W Sun evening, and 18.4N
    57.5W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as
    it moves to near 21.5N 58.0W early Tue. Rough seas across the
    forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical
    Storm Philippe will start to subside toward the end of the week
    south of 17N, but will continue 8 to 12 ft north of 17N into the
    weekend. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the
    central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere
    through the weekend.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about
    Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. Please, refer
    to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections, for
    convection in the basin not related to the tropical cyclones.

    Scattered moderate convection is depicted from the western
    Bahamas to 31N and west of 74W in association to a stationary
    front. Behind the front northeast fresh winds are depicted, with
    seas up to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast and east winds and
    moderate seas dominate the subtropical waters west and east of
    the tropical cyclones.

    For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N
    55.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 2 kt.
    Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the
    minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Philippe will move to 18.1N
    55.4W this evening, 17.8N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.1W Sat
    evening, 17.3N 56.5W Sun morning, 17.5N 56.9W Sun evening, and
    18.4N 57.5W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in
    intensity as it moves to near 21.5N 58.0W early Tue. Rough seas
    ahead of the storm will continue to spread east of 68W through
    the end of the week.

    $$
    KRV

Active Tropical Systems

  • Fri, 29 Sep 2023 17:27:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 291727
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern
    Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over the
    central tropical Atlantic.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
  • Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:51:13 +0000: Tropical Storm Rina Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    Tropical Storm Rina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:51:13 GMT

    Tropical Storm Rina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2023 15:29:13 GMT
  • Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:50:28 +0000: Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 5 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023
    
    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 291450
    TCDAT3
     
    Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
    1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023
    
    Over the last few hours, Rina's center has become exposed with less 
    convective organization noted in the GOES-E satellite imagery. The 
    subjective satellite intensity estimates held steady at 45 kt, 
    while the objective estimates are lower around 35 to 40 kt. Based 
    on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set to 40 kt. 
    
    Rina's current motion remains nearly the same, moving 
    north-northwestward at 335/5 kt. Most of the track guidance shows 
    Rina moving generally northwestward through the weekend between 
    nearby Tropical Storm Philippe and a subtropical ridge over the 
    central Atlantic. By early next week, Rina will start to make a turn 
    to the north within the flow between the subtropical ridge and an 
    upper-level trough moving across the western Atlantic. Most of the 
    model guidance shows a shift to the right of the previous forecast 
    track with a faster forward speed. The official NHC forecast track 
    reflects these trends and is adjusted closer to the latest consensus 
    aids. The one notable outlier is the GFS, which shows more of an 
    interaction between Rina and Philippe. 
    
    The exposed center of Rina indicates a sheared environment, and 
    strong deep-layer shear (partially associated with Philippe) is 
    forecast to persist during the next few days. The official NHC track 
    intensity is held steady through the next day or so, followed by 
    gradual weakening as supported by the latest intensity guidance. By 
    early next week, Rina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant 
    low as it begins that turn to the north and open up into a trough by 
    day 5. Some model guidance suggests dissipation could occur even 
    sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is based on this weakening 
    trend, in agreement with the multi-model consensus. 
    
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  29/1500Z 19.4N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
     12H  30/0000Z 19.8N  47.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  30/1200Z 20.4N  48.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  01/0000Z 21.5N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
     48H  01/1200Z 22.7N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
     60H  02/0000Z 24.0N  53.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
     72H  02/1200Z 25.6N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
     96H  03/1200Z 29.0N  55.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart
     
    
  • Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:50:05 +0000: Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023
    
    179 
    FONT13 KNHC 291449
    PWSAT3
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182023               
    1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023                                            
                                                                        
    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
    19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
    40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER A. REINHART/B. REINHART                                  
             
    
    
  • Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:49:30 +0000: Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 5 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023
    
    915 
    WTNT33 KNHC 291449
    TCPAT3
     
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number   5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
    1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023
     
    ...RINA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
     
     
    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...19.4N 47.0W
    ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
     
     
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
     
     
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was 
    located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 47.0 West. Rina is 
    moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A 
    northwestward to west-northwestward motion, with an increase in 
    forward speed, is expected during the next few days.
     
    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, 
    followed by gradual weakening through early next week.  
     
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
    from the center.
     
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
     
     
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
     
     
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
     
    $$
    Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart
     
    
    

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Fri, 29 Sep 2023 15:14:29 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 291514
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1115 AM EDT FRI 29 SEPTEMBER 2023
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z OCTOBER 2023
              TCPOD NUMBER.....23-122
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
            FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
            A. 30/1730Z                   A. 01/1130Z
            B. AFXXX 0317A PHILIPPE       B. AFXXX 0417A PHILIPPE
            C. 30/1530Z                   C. 01/0930Z
            D. 17.6N 55.9W                D. 17.3N 56.5W
            E. 30/1700Z TO 30/2030Z       E. 01/1100Z TO 01/1430Z
            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
            G. FIX                        G. FIX
     
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HOURLY FIXES IF
            SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF/DMG
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:36:20 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    359
    ABNT30 KNHC 011136
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin in August was above
    normal overall in terms of the number of named storms, hurricanes,
    and major hurricanes. In total, six named tropical cyclones formed
    in the basin in August, with two of those becoming major hurricanes.
    Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), between 3-4 named storms
    typically develop in August, with 1-2 of them becoming hurricanes. A
    major hurricane typically forms in August every 1 to 2 years.

    Franklin initially made landfall in the Dominican Republic as a
    tropical storm, and later affected Bermuda with tropical storm
    conditions as it passed by to the north as a hurricane. Harold made
    landfall in south Texas as a tropical storm, and Idalia made
    landfall in the Florida Big Bend region as a major hurricane.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
    the basin so far in 2023 has been about 35 percent above average
    compared to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
    National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    -----------------------------------------------------------
    Unnamed STS 16-17 Jan 70*
    TS Arlene 1-3 Jun 40*
    TS Bret 19-24 Jun 70
    TS Cindy 22-26 Jun 60*
    H Don 14-24 Jul 75
    TS Emily 20-21 Aug 50
    MH Franklin 20- Aug 150
    TS Gert 19- 40
    TS Harold 21-23 Aug 50
    MH Idalia 26- Aug 130
    TS Jose 29- Aug 60
    -----------------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit


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