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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2024 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

2023 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Tue, 21 May 2024 11:18:21 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 211118
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Tue, 21 May 2024 10:43:07 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 211043
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Tue May 21 2024

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough will
    dig southward across the western Caribbean Sea today through Wed
    then lift out to the northeast through Fri. This feature is
    expected to destabilize the atmosphere, and support very active
    convection across the south-central Caribbean beginning today,
    with strong afternoon convection across the Greater Antilles.
    Convection is then expected to develop north and northeastward
    across the central Caribbean and Greater Antilles, from Jamaica
    and eastern Cuba, to western Puerto Rico, Wed through Fri. Latest
    computer model guidance currently suggests that the highest
    rainfall accumulations with this event may occur across
    Hispaniola. Residents in these locations should remain alert for
    significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. Please refer
    to your local weather office for more specific information.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    A monsoon trough curves southwestward from the coast of Guinea-
    Bissau near 11N16W to 07.5N19W to 06N29W. An ITCZ continues
    westward from 06N29W to 03.5N36W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate
    isolated strong convection is noted south of 07N E of 30W, and
    from 06N to 07.5N between 52W and 56W.

    Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring along the
    eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough, and extends to
    the coasts of Panama and northern Colombia.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Satellite imagery shows dry stable air dominating all but the NW
    portions of the Gulf this morning, to the west of a deep layered
    upper trough along about 80W, digging southward into the NW
    Caribbean. At the surface, a weakening frontal trough has moved
    southward into south Florida. Weak high pressure across the
    eastern U.S. extends southwestward into the northern Gulf behind
    this trough. Mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
    are present across the Gulf waters W of 88W. Gentle E-NE to E
    winds with 2 to 3 ft seas dominate the rest of the Gulf.

    Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery reveal
    haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Mexico is causing
    reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the western Gulf.

    For the forecast, high pressure will remain NE of the basin through
    the end of the week to produce moderate to locally fresh E to SE
    winds across most of the basin, becoming SE to S winds Fri and
    Sat.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A deep layered upper trough along 80W extends from the western
    Atlantic to western Cuba, ans is digging southward across the NW
    Caribbean. This energetic feature has initiated widely scattered
    moderate convection across the waters between western Jamaica and
    western Cuba, and has enhanced convection across the SW Caribbean
    described above. A weak surface ridge along 25N extends north of
    the basin to 74W, and is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
    across the south-central basin extending to the coastal waters of
    Hispaniola. Seas in this zone are 6 to 9 ft. Otherwise, gentle
    winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist across the southwestern basin and
    north of the Cayman Islands. Moderate to locally fresh E to E-SE
    winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
    Sea. Scattered light to moderate showers are across portions of
    the SE Caribbean south of 14N.

    Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate
    haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America
    are causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the
    northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

    For the forecast, the deep layer trough will continue to dig
    southward across the western Caribbean today through Wed, then
    lift out to the NE through Fri. This feature will support very
    active weather across central portions of the basin beginning
    today, and gradually shift NE through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE
    winds will develop in the central Caribbean this afternoon, ahead
    of the active weather, and shift northeastward through Thu while
    diminishing to mostly fresh speeds. Smoke due to agricultural
    fires in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras,
    but continue to thin out. See the special features section for
    information on expected weather associated with the upper trough.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A deep layered upper level trough extends from offshore of Georgia
    southward along 79W-80W across western Cuba and into the NW
    Caribbean. At the surface, a stationary front extends from 31N64W
    to 1009 mb low pressure near 28.5N77W then continues as a trough
    across south Florida. The upper trough is supporting scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection to the southeast of the front
    and low to a line from 31N60W and 21N73W. Moderate E-NE to N winds
    prevail across the waters NW of the frontal system, with overnight
    scatterometer data showing fresh winds in this region over the
    Gulfstream. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area, except 7 to 9 ft
    in the Gulfstream offshore of Cape Canaveral, as recently measured
    by satellite altimeter.

    To the east, 1024 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern
    Atlantic near 33N24W, and extends a ridge W-SW to near 25N74W.
    Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail within the ridge
    between 20N and 30W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft within the ridge. South of
    20N, mainly moderate NE to E trade winds prevail, where seas are
    4 to 6 ft, with a few small areas to 7 ft possible.

    For the forecast W of 55W, he front will move southeastward and
    stall and weaken from near 31N70W to SE Florida by Wed morning. A
    trough will develop just southeast of the weakening front and
    extend into the central Bahamas on Wed, then drift eastward
    through Thu night. Meanwhile, scattered convection will persist
    southeast of these features. Moderate winds and seas will prevail
    in the western Atlantic with the front and trough through
    midweek. Weak low pressure is expected to develop just N of
    Hispaniola Thu night and shift N-NE through Sat, accompanied by
    moderate to fresh winds and active weather.

    $$
    Stripling

Active Tropical Systems

  • Wed, 22 May 2024 23:18:21 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
  • Tue, 21 May 2024 11:18:21 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 211118
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Mon, 01 Apr 2024 14:54:44 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 011454
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1100 AM EDT MON 01 APRIL 2024
     SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z APRIL 2024
              WSPOD NUMBER.....23-123
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS
            DICTATE OTHERWISE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Fri, 01 Dec 2023 12:58:54 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011258
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    No tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic basin in the month of
    November. Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), a tropical
    storm forms in November once every year or two, and a hurricane
    forms once every two years. A disturbance (Potential Tropical
    Cyclone Twenty-Two) caused heavy rains and flooding across portions
    of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola during the middle part of
    the month, but the system did not become a tropical cyclone.

    Overall, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had above-normal
    activity in terms of the number of named storms but a normal amount
    of activity in terms of the number of hurricanes and major
    hurricanes. In 2023, 20 storms of at least tropical storm strength
    formed, of which 7 became hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes
    (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
    This compares to the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named
    storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of
    Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and
    duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin
    in 2023 was about 20 percent above average compared to the long-term
    (1991-2020) mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
    National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    -----------------------------------------------------------
    Unnamed STS 16-17 Jan 70*
    TS Arlene 1-3 Jun 40*
    TS Bret 19-24 Jun 70*
    TS Cindy 22-26 Jun 60*
    H Don 14-24 Jul 75*
    TS Emily 20-21 Aug 50*
    MH Franklin 20 Aug- 1 Sep 150
    TS Gert 19- 4 Sep 60*
    TS Harold 21-23 Aug 50
    MH Idalia 26-31 Aug 130
    TS Jose 29 Aug- 1 Sep 60
    TS Katia 1- 4 Sep 60
    MH Lee 5-16 Sep 165
    H Margot 7-17 Sep 90
    H Nigel 15-22 Sep 100
    TS Ophelia 22-24 Sep 70
    TS Philippe 23 Sep- 6 Oct 50
    TS Rina 28 Sep- 1 Oct 50*
    TS Sean 11-15 Oct 45
    H Tammy 18-29 Oct 105
    TD Twenty-One 23-24 Oct 30
    -----------------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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