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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 12 Aug 2022 23:25:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 122325
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow
to occur while it moves slowly west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
approaching the Texas coast tonight and Saturday, and moving inland
over southern Texas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through
the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
For more information on the system, see products issued by the
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 12 Aug 2022 22:50:33 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 122250
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 19W, from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt based on 700 mb wind speeds. A
1008 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 14N19W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity
of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the
Monsoon Trough, is west of the wave axis from 07N to 18N and E of
29W.
A tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from 23N southward,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave axis, mainly where it meets the monsoon
trough.
A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles arc, with axis
extending along 60W from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15
kt. No significant convection is noted over the waters at this
time.
A tropical wave located in the central Caribbean is along 74W,
from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is east of the wave axis, from 16N to 20N
between 67W and 74W, affecting Hispaniola and La Mona Passage.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 16N17W
to 1008 mb low pressure near 14N19W to 11N38W to 10N60W. Aside
from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above,
scattered showers prevail from 07N to 19N between 41W and 59W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
1014 mb low pressure is centered in the NW Gulf near 29N92W, with
a trough extending from 30N91W to 25N97W. These features,
combined with broad surface convergence across the northern Gulf,
is producing scattered moderate convection across the northern
half of the basin north of 24N. Winds and seas may be locally
higher in the convection. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, gentle
to moderate SE to S winds prevail along the periphery of the
subtropical Atlantic ridge, with seas of 2-4 ft.
For the forecast, the weak Atlantic high pressure will sink
southeast through Tue. This will allow for gentle to moderate
winds over the basin to weaken to light to gentle into next week.
Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during the late
afternoon and evenings off the NW Yucatan peninsula through early
next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
associated with a low pressure trough and weak low pressure that
is along it are over most of the northern Gulf waters. This system
will drift west-southwestward over the NW Gulf and toward the
Texas coast during the weekend. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur. Strong gusty winds and
rough seas can be expected with this activity. Meanwhile, a weak
frontal boundary is expected to stall just north of the central
and NE Gulf during the weekend.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.
The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades in
the eastern and central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades in
the western Caribbean. A 1010 mb Colombian/Panamanian low is in
the SW Caribbean near 12N83W, along the extension of the East
Pacific Monsoon Trough. Scattered moderate convection is to the
northwest of the low, from 11N to 14N west of 81W including
coastal regions of Nicaragua.
For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will drift southward
and weaken through early next week. Moderate to fresh trade winds
over the central Caribbean will weaken to moderate Sat through
Mon, then increase to fresh late Mon through Tue night. A broad
surface trough accompanies a tropical wave across the central
Atlantic, and is expected to move across the Tropical N Atlantic
tonight night through Sat night, across the eastern Caribbean
early Sun through early Mon, across the central Caribbean Mon
through late Wed.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.
An outflow boundary is analyzed in the deep tropics, from 14N41W
to 10N43W, moving west at 15-20 kt. E winds to 30 kt were captured
well in scatterometer data this morning behind this boundary. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic continues to be dominated by
the subtropical ridge located north of the area. NE to E winds are
gentle to moderate across the basin, except from 18N to 24N east
of 30W where NE winds are fresh. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 19N and
west of 55W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in open waters. Seas are locally
8 ft NE of the Cabo Verde Islands.
For the forecast W of 55W, the ridge that extends from the
central Atlantic WSW to northern Florida along 29N, will weaken
and sink southward through early next week as a frontal boundary
moves off the eastern seaboard and begins to weaken as it stalls
from across NE Florida east-northeastward to north of 31N78W.
Moderate to fresh E winds S of 25N will veer to the SE and weaken
to gentle early Sat and change little into next week. Light to
gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through the period. A
tropical wave will reach the southeast forecast waters by early
Sat, bringing a slight increase in winds and seas over those
waters through early Mon. A cold front may move over the waters
northeast of NE Florida late Tue, then stall and weaken through
Wed night.
$$
ERA
Active Tropical Systems
- Fri, 12 Aug 2022 23:25:57 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 13 Aug 2022 03:29:49 GMT - Fri, 12 Aug 2022 23:25:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 122325
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow
to occur while it moves slowly west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
approaching the Texas coast tonight and Saturday, and moving inland
over southern Texas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through
the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
For more information on the system, see products issued by the
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
$$
Forecaster Berg
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 12 Aug 2022 15:43:47 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 121543 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1145 AM EDT FRI 12 AUGUST 2022 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2022 TCPOD NUMBER.....22-078 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO) FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72 A. 13/1800Z A. 14/0530Z,1130Z B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE C. 13/1630Z C. 14/0400Z D. 27.5N 95.0W D. 27.0N 97.0W E. 13/1730Z TO 13/2230Z E. 14/0500Z TO 14/1130Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ SEF/SCW NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Mon, 01 Aug 2022 11:30:09 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011130
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Two tropical storms (Bonnie and Colin) formed in the basin during
July. Bonnie formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and moved
across Central America and into the eastern North Pacific basin and
Colin was a short-lived storm near the Carolina coast. So far,
seasonal activity has been near average based on the 30-year
climatology (1991-2020).
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
the basin so far in 2022 has been a little below average compared
to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70
TS Bonnie 1-2 Jul 50
TS Colin 2-3 Jul 40
---------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
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