2023 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Wed, 29 Nov 2023 17:14:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 291714
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  100 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Papin
  

• Wed, 29 Nov 2023 18:17:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 291817
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1805 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1700 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone
  near 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 02N33W. The ITCZ
  continues from 02N33W to 01N47W. Numerous strong convection is
  along the African coast from 00N to 10N and extends westward
  20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to
  06N between 23W and 37W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A broad surface ridge dominates the Gulf, centered on a 1027 mb
  high over the lower Mississippi Valley. Fresh NE winds are noted
  in the Bay of Campeche, where seas are 7 to 11 ft. Fresh NE winds
  and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted south of 25N across the basin,
  with mainly moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the
  northern Gulf.
  
  For the forecast, seas in the southern Bay of Campeche will
  continue to subside today. A low pres has dissipated across the
  western gulf, and a surface trough now prevails across the area.
  Strong return flow will set up across the northern Gulf by
  tonight ahead of the next approaching front that will push off
  the Texas coast on Fri.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize.
  Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean.
  Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. No significant convection
  is depicted in association with the front except for some
  scattered thunderstorms offshore the Yucatan Peninsula.
  
  A recent scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong trade winds
  over the central Caribbean between 70W and 82W, with the
  strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia. An altimeter pass
  found sesa up to 11 ft in the area of strong winds. Seas
  elsewhere in this area are from 6 to 10 ft. East of 70W,
  moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted.
  
  For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge over the eastern
  Caribbean Sea will continue shifting E today as the front stalls
  in the NW basin. This will decrease the coverage of fresh to
  strong winds in the south-central Caribbean today and Thu. The
  large area of strong winds will return by Fri night as another
  high pressure builds over the area. A stationary front stretches
  from Cuba to Belize with moderate winds and 7 ft seas behind it.
  The front will linger over this area before dissipating later in
  the week.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A pair of cold fronts is over the western Atlantic, extending
  from a low-pressure system north of our area. The leading cold
  front extends from 31N56W to 24N70W, where it becomes
  stationary, continuing to the southern Bahamas and central Cuba.
  Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front, north of
  25N. The second cold front extends from 31N64W to 29N77W.
  Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the leading front, north
  of 29N. Moderate or less NW winds are behind the boundaries,
  shifting to NE west of 70W. Seas are 4 ft or less.
  
  High pressure extends across the central Atlantic, anchored by a
  1019 mb high near 30N44W. Light to gentle winds with seas to 5
  ft are noted under the influence of the high.
  
  In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N24W to
  22N35W. Fresh S winds are ahead, and W winds are behind the
  front with seas 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4
  to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.
  
  For the forecast W of 55W, the cold fronts will gradually
  dissipate through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh winds will
  persist behind the front today. Winds across the area will veer
  E to SE Thu night and Fri while becoming fresh to strong as the
  high pressure moves E of Bermuda.
  
  $$
  Mora
  

• Wed, 29 Nov 2023 17:14:59 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
  No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 29 Nov 2023 18:17:21 GMT
• Wed, 29 Nov 2023 17:14:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 291714
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  100 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Papin
  

• Wed, 29 Nov 2023 16:35:57 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 291635
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1135 AM EST WED 29 NOVEMBER 2023
   SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
            VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z DECEMBER 2023
            TCPOD NUMBER.....23-183
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   NOTE:  THE ATLANTIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
   
          THE PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
   
          1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
          2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
          3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
             FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
             FOR THE 03/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
   
   $$
   WJM
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Wed, 01 Nov 2023 11:59:53 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011159
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin was near normal in
  October with the formation of two named storms, with one of those
  becoming a hurricane (Tammy). One tropical depression also formed.
  In addition, Tropical Storms Philippe and Rina both completed their
  life cycle early in October. Based on a 30-year climatology
  (1991-2020), between 2-3 named storms typically develop in October,
  with one of them becoming a hurricane, and one a major hurricane.
  
  Philippe which formed in September affected portions of the northern
  Leeward Islands as a tropical storm early in the month. Tammy also
  affected portions of the Leeward Islands in October. Tammy made
  landfall as a hurricane on Barbuda during the evening of 21 October.
  Tropical Depression Twenty-One moved inland over Nicaragua a few
  days later bringing heavy rainfall with flash and urban flooding.
  
  In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
  strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
  the basin so far in 2023 has been about 30 percent above average
  compared to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
  National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  -----------------------------------------------------------
  Unnamed STS 16-17 Jan 70*
  TS Arlene 1-3 Jun 40*
  TS Bret 19-24 Jun 70*
  TS Cindy 22-26 Jun 60*
  H Don 14-24 Jul 75
  TS Emily 20-21 Aug 50
  MH Franklin 20 Aug- 1 Sep 150
  TS Gert 19- 4 Sep 60
  TS Harold 21-23 Aug 50
  MH Idalia 26-31 Aug 130
  TS Jose 29 Aug- 1 Sep 60
  TS Katia 1- 4 Sep 60
  MH Lee 5-16 Sep 165
  H Margot 7-17 Sep 90
  H Nigel 15-22 Sep 100
  TS Ophelia 21-24 Sep 70
  TS Philippe 23 Sep- 6 Oct 50
  TS Rina 28 Sep- 1 Oct 50
  TS Sean 11-15 Oct 45
  H Tammy 18-29 Oct 105
  TD Twenty-One 23-24 Oct 30
  -----------------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit