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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 29 Sep 2023 17:27:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291727
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over the
central tropical Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 29 Sep 2023 17:47:29 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 291747
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Sep 29 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 18.3N 55.3W at 29/1500
UTC or 440 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WSW at 2
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are
17 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 15N to 19N
between 51W and 56W. Philippe is forecast to continue to move
very slowly toward the west-southwest through Saturday night. A
gradual turn toward the west and northwest is forecast Sunday
and Sunday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next few days. Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions
of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 19.4N 47.0W at 29/1500 UTC
or 920 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NNW at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 17 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 13.5N to 19.5N
between 40W and 47W. A northwestward to west-northwestward
motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected during
the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening through early
next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is near 23W, from 05N to 19N, moving westward at
10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 04N to 12N between 16W and 26W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through 14.5N17.5W and moves southward
to 08.5N27W and to 07N39W. The ITCZ continues from 07N39W to
06N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 10N
between 28W and 35W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from north of Tampa, Florida to New
Orleans, Louisiana. While a pre-frontal trough extends from
south Florida to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This front
is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the
northern, central, and eastern Gulf waters. Surface ridging over
the SE CONUS just N of the front is tightening slightly the
pressure gradient, thus supporting moderate to locally fresh NE
to E winds along the northern Gulf waters N of 27N, with seas 2-
5 ft. Elsewhere outside of convection, light to gentle winds
with seas 1-4 ft prevail.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue
across the northern Gulf offshore waters N of 26N with moderate
seas through the forecast period, expanding to the central basin
Sun night into Tue. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
forecast elsewhere through Tue night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level trough located south of Haiti is producing
scattered moderate convection in the area. Another area of
convection is depicted in the western Caribbean is association
to a trough that extends to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from
the Gulf of Mexico. A weak pressure gradient in the Caribbean is
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the
central Caribbean and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere.
Seas are slight basin-wide.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N 55.3W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 2 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Philippe will move to 18.1N 55.4W
this evening, 17.8N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.1W Sat evening,
17.3N 56.5W Sun morning, 17.5N 56.9W Sun evening, and 18.4N
57.5W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 21.5N 58.0W early Tue. Rough seas across the
forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical
Storm Philippe will start to subside toward the end of the week
south of 17N, but will continue 8 to 12 ft north of 17N into the
weekend. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere
through the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about
Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina. Please, refer
to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections, for
convection in the basin not related to the tropical cyclones.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from the western
Bahamas to 31N and west of 74W in association to a stationary
front. Behind the front northeast fresh winds are depicted, with
seas up to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast and east winds and
moderate seas dominate the subtropical waters west and east of
the tropical cyclones.
For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 18.3N
55.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-southwest at 2 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Philippe will move to 18.1N
55.4W this evening, 17.8N 55.7W Sat morning, 17.4N 56.1W Sat
evening, 17.3N 56.5W Sun morning, 17.5N 56.9W Sun evening, and
18.4N 57.5W Mon morning. Philippe will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 21.5N 58.0W early Tue. Rough seas
ahead of the storm will continue to spread east of 68W through
the end of the week.
$$
KRV
Active Tropical Systems
- Fri, 29 Sep 2023 17:27:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291727
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over the
central tropical Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi - Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:51:13 +0000: Tropical Storm Rina Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:51:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2023 15:29:13 GMT - Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:50:28 +0000: Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 5 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023000 WTNT43 KNHC 291450 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023 Over the last few hours, Rina's center has become exposed with less convective organization noted in the GOES-E satellite imagery. The subjective satellite intensity estimates held steady at 45 kt, while the objective estimates are lower around 35 to 40 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set to 40 kt. Rina's current motion remains nearly the same, moving north-northwestward at 335/5 kt. Most of the track guidance shows Rina moving generally northwestward through the weekend between nearby Tropical Storm Philippe and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. By early next week, Rina will start to make a turn to the north within the flow between the subtropical ridge and an upper-level trough moving across the western Atlantic. Most of the model guidance shows a shift to the right of the previous forecast track with a faster forward speed. The official NHC forecast track reflects these trends and is adjusted closer to the latest consensus aids. The one notable outlier is the GFS, which shows more of an interaction between Rina and Philippe. The exposed center of Rina indicates a sheared environment, and strong deep-layer shear (partially associated with Philippe) is forecast to persist during the next few days. The official NHC track intensity is held steady through the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening as supported by the latest intensity guidance. By early next week, Rina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low as it begins that turn to the north and open up into a trough by day 5. Some model guidance suggests dissipation could occur even sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is based on this weakening trend, in agreement with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 19.4N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 19.8N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 20.4N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 21.5N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 22.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 24.0N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 25.6N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart
- Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:50:05 +0000: Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023179 FONT13 KNHC 291449 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER A. REINHART/B. REINHART - Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:49:30 +0000: Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 5 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023915 WTNT33 KNHC 291449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023 ...RINA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 47.0W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 47.0 West. Rina is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward to west-northwestward motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening through early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 29 Sep 2023 15:14:29 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 291514 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1115 AM EDT FRI 29 SEPTEMBER 2023 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z OCTOBER 2023 TCPOD NUMBER.....23-122 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75 A. 30/1730Z A. 01/1130Z B. AFXXX 0317A PHILIPPE B. AFXXX 0417A PHILIPPE C. 30/1530Z C. 01/0930Z D. 17.6N 55.9W D. 17.3N 56.5W E. 30/1700Z TO 30/2030Z E. 01/1100Z TO 01/1430Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. FIX G. FIX 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ SEF/DMG NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Fri, 01 Sep 2023 11:36:20 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
359
ABNT30 KNHC 011136
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin in August was above
normal overall in terms of the number of named storms, hurricanes,
and major hurricanes. In total, six named tropical cyclones formed
in the basin in August, with two of those becoming major hurricanes.
Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), between 3-4 named storms
typically develop in August, with 1-2 of them becoming hurricanes. A
major hurricane typically forms in August every 1 to 2 years.
Franklin initially made landfall in the Dominican Republic as a
tropical storm, and later affected Bermuda with tropical storm
conditions as it passed by to the north as a hurricane. Harold made
landfall in south Texas as a tropical storm, and Idalia made
landfall in the Florida Big Bend region as a major hurricane.
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
the basin so far in 2023 has been about 35 percent above average
compared to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Unnamed STS 16-17 Jan 70*
TS Arlene 1-3 Jun 40*
TS Bret 19-24 Jun 70
TS Cindy 22-26 Jun 60*
H Don 14-24 Jul 75
TS Emily 20-21 Aug 50
MH Franklin 20- Aug 150
TS Gert 19- 40
TS Harold 21-23 Aug 50
MH Idalia 26- Aug 130
TS Jose 29- Aug 60
-----------------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
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