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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 16 Jan 2023 15:02:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161502
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.
Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as necessary during the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 26 Mar 2023 17:34:56 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 261734
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic
high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue
to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia
through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 13 ft
each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W. Recent scattetometer data
provide observations of 25 to 30 kt witin about 90 nm of the coast
of Colombia, with 20 to 25 kt winds elsewhere across the central
Caribbean.
Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell associated with
a complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic has
propagated into the forecast waters. Seas greater than 12 ft are
covering the waters N of 30N between 38W and 52W, peaking near 15
ft. Seas in excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of
25N and east of 45W Sun and Sun night, before shifting east of 35W
early Mon. Maximum combined seas will be 17 ft near 31N42W late
today. Wave periods will average 14 to 16 seconds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near
07N11W and continues SW to 02N22W. The ITCZ extends from 02N22W
to 01N30W to 00N50W. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection
is noted from 00N to 03N between 07W and 11W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is elsewhere, from 00N to 05N
between 05W and 19W. Similar convective activity is also seen from
00N to 02N between 30W and 40W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure located south of Bermuda has a ridge extending across
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of this
system, gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed across the
Gulf waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range north of the Yucatan
peninsula, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere N of 22N and W of 85W. Seas
are 1 to 3 ft across the offshore waters of Florida, and 2 to 4 ft
in the Bay of Campeche. Buoy and platform observations indicate
areas of fog over the NW Gulf while abundant cloudiness dominates
the coastal waters of Texas due to the presence of stationary
front located just inland.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan
peninsula during the evening hours through Tue. A cold front
entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue morning will move southeastward
and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico,
Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the Florida
Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the
front into Wed morning. Afterward, a high pressure near the US
Mid-Atlantic coast will reinforce the front and create moderate to
fresh easterly winds across the Bay of Campeche and southeastern
Gulf after midweek.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
Strong to near gale-force winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia while fresh to strong winds
are seen over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Fresh to
strong SE winds are noted W of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except gentle winds in
the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the south
central Caribbean based on a pair of altimeter passes, and 6 to 8
ft over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere,
except 2 to 4 ft in the lee of Cuba.
Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered
passing showers. Some of these patches of moisture are affecting
the Leeward Islands, the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and
also the Cayman Islands.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through
the middle of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to
gale-force at night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade
winds will persist in the Windward Passage and north of Hispaniola
through Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
the Gulf of Honduras until Wed afternoon, occasionally reaching
near-gale force locally. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
event that is already propagating across the forecast waters.
High pressure of 1023 mb is centered south of Bermuda near 29N63W
and dominates the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and
Florida. The associated ridge also reaches the NE Caribbean. Fresh
to locally strong E to SE winds are between Haiti and the Turks
and Caicos Islands, including the approach to the Windward Passage.
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high. A cold
front extends from 31N39W to 28N45W to 30N57W. Moderate to fresh
winds are on either side of the front mainly N of 27N and E of
50W. The aforementioned swell event follows this front forecast to
move SE through Sun while weakening. Aside from the area of seas
greater than 12 ft, seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail N of 28N between
35W and 55W. A ridge extends across the Madeira and the Canary
Islands. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 55W and the
Lesser Antilles while mainly moderate trades are noted across the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic with seas generally in the 5 to
7 ft range.
For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off
the US east coast on Tue evening, then slowly track eastward
north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and
higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the
pressure gradient, generating fresh NE to E winds across the
Bahamas by Thu.
$$
GR
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 17 Jan 2023 09:51:06 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 26 Mar 2023 13:45:59 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 261345 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0945 AM EDT SUN 26 MARCH 2023 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MARCH 2023 WSPOD NUMBER.....22-116 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ SEF NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:52:46 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011252
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during November was
above average in terms of the number of named storms and
hurricanes. Two hurricanes (Martin and Nicole) formed in the basin
during November, and Lisa which developed in late October became a
hurricane early in November. Based on a 30-year climatology
(1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one or two
years. Although Martin did not affect land as a tropical cyclone,
Nicole became a hurricane when it was affecting the northwestern
Bahamas, and it became the first November hurricane to make landfall
in Florida since Kate in 1985. Lisa also made landfall in Belize
as a hurricane during the month of November.
Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal
activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but
was slightly below average in terms of the number of major
hurricanes. In 2022, fourteen named storms formed, of which eight
became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or
higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes,
and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
(ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms
and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2022 was slightly
below average. The ACE for 2022 is 80 percent of the long-term
(1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
TS Bonnie 1-9 Jul 115
TS Colin 1-2 Jul 40*
H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
H Lisa 31 Oct-5 Nov 85
H Martin 1-3 Nov 85
H Nicole 7-11 Nov 75
---------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
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