2023 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Mon, 16 Jan 2023 15:02:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 161502
  TWOAT
  
  Special Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
  subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.
  
  Northwestern Atlantic:
  A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
  Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
  storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
  thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
  mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
  northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
  much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
  Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
  subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
  expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
  so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
  can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
  Service.
  
  No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
  this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
  resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
  be issued as necessary during the off-season.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
  
  &&
  High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
  found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
  online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
  
  $$
  Forecaster Cangialosi
  

• Sun, 26 Mar 2023 17:34:56 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 261734
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1805 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1700 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic
  high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue
  to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
  pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia
  through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 13 ft
  each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W. Recent scattetometer data
  provide observations of 25 to 30 kt witin about 90 nm of the coast
  of Colombia, with 20 to 25 kt winds elsewhere across the central
  Caribbean.
  
  Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell associated with
  a complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic has
  propagated into the forecast waters. Seas greater than 12 ft are
  covering the waters N of 30N between 38W and 52W, peaking near 15
  ft. Seas in excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of
  25N and east of 45W Sun and Sun night, before shifting east of 35W
  early Mon. Maximum combined seas will be 17 ft near 31N42W late
  today. Wave periods will average 14 to 16 seconds.
  
  Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
  Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
  details.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near
  07N11W and continues SW to 02N22W. The ITCZ extends from 02N22W
  to 01N30W to 00N50W. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection
  is noted from 00N to 03N between 07W and 11W. Scattered moderate
  to isolated strong convection is elsewhere, from 00N to 05N
  between 05W and 19W. Similar convective activity is also seen from
  00N to 02N between 30W and 40W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure located south of Bermuda has a ridge extending across
  Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of this
  system, gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed across the
  Gulf waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range north of the Yucatan
  peninsula, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere N of 22N and W of 85W. Seas
  are 1 to 3 ft across the offshore waters of Florida, and 2 to 4 ft
  in the Bay of Campeche. Buoy and platform observations indicate
  areas of fog over the NW Gulf while abundant cloudiness dominates
  the coastal waters of Texas due to the presence of stationary
  front located just inland.
  
  For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan
  peninsula during the evening hours through Tue. A cold front
  entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue morning will move southeastward
  and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico,
  Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the Florida
  Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong
  NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the
  front into Wed morning. Afterward, a high pressure near the US
  Mid-Atlantic coast will reinforce the front and create moderate to
  fresh easterly winds across the Bay of Campeche and southeastern
  Gulf after midweek.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
  Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
  
  Strong to near gale-force winds prevail over the south central
  Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia while fresh to strong winds
  are seen over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Fresh to
  strong SE winds are noted W of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras.
  Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except gentle winds in
  the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the south
  central Caribbean based on a pair of altimeter passes, and 6 to 8
  ft over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere,
  except 2 to 4 ft in the lee of Cuba.
  
  Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
  are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered
  passing showers. Some of these patches of moisture are affecting
  the Leeward Islands, the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and
  also the Cayman Islands.
  
  For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
  north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will support
  fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through
  the middle of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to
  gale-force at night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade
  winds will persist in the Windward Passage and north of Hispaniola
  through Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
  the Gulf of Honduras until Wed afternoon, occasionally reaching
  near-gale force locally. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
  prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
  event that is already propagating across the forecast waters.
  
  High pressure of 1023 mb is centered south of Bermuda near 29N63W
  and dominates the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and
  Florida. The associated ridge also reaches the NE Caribbean. Fresh
  to locally strong E to SE winds are between Haiti and the Turks
  and Caicos Islands, including the approach to the Windward Passage.
  Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high. A cold
  front extends from 31N39W to 28N45W to 30N57W. Moderate to fresh
  winds are on either side of the front mainly N of 27N and E of
  50W. The aforementioned swell event follows this front forecast to
  move SE through Sun while weakening. Aside from the area of seas
  greater than 12 ft, seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail N of 28N between
  35W and 55W. A ridge extends across the Madeira and the Canary
  Islands. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 55W and the
  Lesser Antilles while mainly moderate trades are noted across the
  remainder of the tropical Atlantic with seas generally in the 5 to
  7 ft range.
  
  For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
  western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off
  the US east coast on Tue evening, then slowly track eastward
  north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and
  higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front.
  High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the
  pressure gradient, generating fresh NE to E winds across the
  Bahamas by Thu.
  
  $$
  GR
  

• Tue, 17 Jan 2023 09:51:06 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

• Sun, 26 Mar 2023 13:45:59 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 261345
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   0945 AM EDT SUN 26 MARCH 2023
   SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
            VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MARCH 2023
            WSPOD NUMBER.....22-116
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   $$
   SEF
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:52:46 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011252
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during November was
  above average in terms of the number of named storms and
  hurricanes. Two hurricanes (Martin and Nicole) formed in the basin
  during November, and Lisa which developed in late October became a
  hurricane early in November. Based on a 30-year climatology
  (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one or two
  years. Although Martin did not affect land as a tropical cyclone,
  Nicole became a hurricane when it was affecting the northwestern
  Bahamas, and it became the first November hurricane to make landfall
  in Florida since Kate in 1985. Lisa also made landfall in Belize
  as a hurricane during the month of November.
  
  Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal
  activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but
  was slightly below average in terms of the number of major
  hurricanes. In 2022, fourteen named storms formed, of which eight
  became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or
  higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
  the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes,
  and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
  (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms
  and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2022 was slightly
  below average. The ACE for 2022 is 80 percent of the long-term
  (1991-2020) mean.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
  TS Bonnie 1-9 Jul 115
  TS Colin 1-2 Jul 40*
  H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
  H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
  MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
  TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
  MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
  TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
  TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
  TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
  H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
  TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
  H Lisa 31 Oct-5 Nov 85
  H Martin 1-3 Nov 85
  H Nicole 7-11 Nov 75
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit