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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 27 Jul 2024 05:04:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
715
ABNT20 KNHC 270504
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next several days. Some development of this system is
possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early
to middle part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward
near the Greater Antilles towards the latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 27 Jul 2024 04:47:46 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 270447
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 27 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 08N to 14N and between 24W and 30W.
Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 07N to 13N and between 30W and 38W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W, south
of 19N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. A few showers are evident
near the trough axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N35W and
to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to
11N and between 39W and 49W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak surface trough in the western Gulf and divergence aloft
continues to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the vicinity of the trough and the northern Gulf waters. The Gulf
of Mexico is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over
the central Atlantic that extends westward into the basin. Moderate
to locally fresh NE-E winds are found off northern and western
Yucatan. Seas in these waters are 2-3 ft. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters
through Wed allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over
the next several days. A weak high pressure cell will develop
over the eastern Gulf by Sun.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad upper level trough centered near the central Bahamas
induces scattered showers in the north-central Caribbean,
also affecting Jamaica and Hispaniola. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that winds to near gale-force are
occurring in association with the strongest convection. The basin
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned north of the
islands. This ridge forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds
over much of the central and SW Caribbean. Seas in these waters
are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of
4-7 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and
lee of Cuba. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a tropical wave will move across the western
Caribbean on Sat, reaching the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun. The
Atlantic ridge will build over the east and central Caribbean in
the wake of the wave. This pattern will support fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the
middle of next week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
building seas over the northwest Caribbean behind the wave axis
through Sun with locally strong winds and rough seas across the
Gulf of Honduras Sun night.
Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather over the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an
approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some
development of this system will be possible while it approaches
the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week
and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles
toward the latter part of the week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad upper level low near the central Bahamas continues to
produce isolated showers over much of the SW North Atlantic,
especially west of 70W. The tropical Atlantic is under the
influence of an expansive subtropical ridge positioned over the
central Atlantic. Fresh easterly winds are found off northern
Hispaniola, along with seas of 4-6 ft. In the far northeast
Atlantic, fresh to locally strong northerly winds are occurring
north of 25N and east of 20W, with the strongest winds affecting
the water passages of the Canary Islands. Seas in these waters are
5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will
dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the next several
days. It will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off
the Carolina coast on Sat. The front will stall then dissipate
between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sun into MOn. The pattern
will support fresh to strong E winds off Hispaniola through Sun,
and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere into Tue. Looking ahead,
winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands by
late Tue associated with an approaching tropical wave.
Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather over the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an
approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some
development of this system will be possible while it approaches
the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week
and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles
toward the latter part of the week.
$$
Delgado
Active Tropical Systems
- Sat, 27 Jul 2024 05:04:47 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 27 Jul 2024 08:48:59 GMT - Sat, 27 Jul 2024 05:04:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
715
ABNT20 KNHC 270504
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next several days. Some development of this system is
possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early
to middle part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward
near the Greater Antilles towards the latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Fri, 26 Jul 2024 14:30:54 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 261430 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1030 AM EDT FRI 26 JULY 2024 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JULY 2024 TCPOD NUMBER.....24-056 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ SEF/ZTH/AOM NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Mon, 01 Jul 2024 11:50:58 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011150
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
June was very busy across the Atlantic basin. Three named storms
formed in June with one hurricane, Beryl, which became a major
hurricane by the end of the month. Compared to a long-term June
average of a named storm forming only every other year. Alberto
brought tropical-storm-force winds to portions of Texas and the
northwest coast of Mexico. Beryl, located near the Windward Islands
at the end of the month, rapidly intensified to the season's first
major hurricane, and is also the earliest category 4 hurricane on
record in the basin. Chris formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
at the end of the month.
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity
in the basin so far in 2024 has been well above average compared to
the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
-----------------------------------------------------------
TS Alberto 17-20 Jun 50
MH Beryl 28 Jun - 130
TS Chris 30 Jun - 40
-----------------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
