Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Fri, 20 May 2022 23:07:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 202307
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Reinhart
  

• Fri, 20 May 2022 22:49:12 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 202249
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0005 UTC Sat May 21 2022
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  2140 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre
  (CAG), is developing across Central America and the adjacent
  southwest Caribbean today. The monsoon trough has begun to shift
  northward across the tropical northeast Pacific, increasing SW
  winds and advecting tropical moisture over Central America. Heavy
  to extreme rainfall is possible over portions of Guatemala, El
  Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama. There is
  potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially across
  mountainous terrain. This event is expected to last through early
  next week. Please refer to products issued by your local weather
  service for more information.
  
  ...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
  A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 51W, from 01N
  to 14N moving west around 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
  strong convection is noted from 00N-07N between 44W-54W.
  
  A tropical wave is exiting the far western Caribbean with axis
  south of 19N along 89W and across Central America, moving west
  around 10 kt. Associated convection is occurring over land near
  the wave at this time, and extends across the adjacent Pacific
  waters. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
  behind the wave from 14N-16.5N between 80W-84W.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to
  07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 02N45W. Scattered to
  numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N-09W east
  of 25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
  south of 07N between 44W-54W. The eastern North Pacific's monsoon
  trough extends across Central America, along the border of Costa
  Rica and Nicaragua, and extends to 11N75W along the coast of Colombia.
  Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of 14N west
  of 76W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  The gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over NE
  Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE flow across the
  majority of the basin, with strong winds occurring along the SE
  Texas coast. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 4-7 ft in
  the western Gulf. Low level moisture has moved from the southeast
  Gulf this morning to offshore of central Florida, where divergent
  upper-level flow is supporting scattered moderate convection
  from 26.5N-28N and east of 85W. Otherwise, clear to mostly fair
  skies prevail across the basin. Smoke from seasonal agricultural
  fires over Mexico continues to spread northward and is producing
  hazy skies across the western two-thirds of the basin.
  
  For the forecast, high pressure will build over the western
  Atlantic through Sun as low pressure develops over Central America
  and the Bay of Campeche. This will allow for mostly fresh
  southeast winds over the western Gulf to expand eastward tonight
  into Sat. Fresh to strong southeast winds from the northwestern
  Caribbean Sea will surge into the central Gulf waters and Yucatan
  Channel from from Sat through Sun, diminishing to fresh speeds Sun
  night. Elsewhere, winds and seas will then diminish slightly
  across most of the basin Sun into Mon as the pressure gradient
  relaxes, leaving only pulses of fresh to occasionally strong winds
  at night off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh
  return flow is expected over the western Gulf Mon night through
  Tue night.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Please see the Special Features section for information on a
  potential heavy rainfall event associated with a Central American
  Gyre (CAG).
  
  The Bermuda High is interacting with lower pressure over Central
  America, associated with the developing Central American Gyre, and
  is forcing fresh to strong E to SE trades over the central and W
  Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades over the E Caribbean. Seas
  are 7-10 ft over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the W
  Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate
  and isolated strong convection is noted from 26.5N-28N and east of
  85W in association with a tropical wave and the developing
  Central American Gyre. Mostly fair and hazy skies prevail
  elsewhere east of 75W as Saharan Air and areas of suspended dust
  have moved into the basin behind the tropical wave.
  
  For the forecast, winds and seas across the basin will increase
  tonight into the weekend as the western Atlantic ridge
  strengthens and broad low pressure over Central America
  gradually shifts west to northwestward. The strongest winds and
  highest seas are expected to be over parts of the northwestern
  and south-central Caribbean during this period. Looking ahead,
  winds and seas will start to diminish across the basin early
  next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  Ridging associated with the Bermuda and Azores Highs stretches
  across the basin along 29N-32N. Winds north of a line from 26N30W
  to 21N57W to 28N80W are gentle or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.
  South of the line and east of 60W, the NE to E trades are
  moderate to fresh and with seas 5-8 ft. Saharan Air and suspended
  dust dominate much of this area producing hazy skies. West of
  60W, moderate SE to S winds prevail with seas 2-4 ft. Southerly
  low level flow across the far eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida and
  the Bahamas has advected moisture northward this afternoon, and
  has erupted into scattered moderate to strong convection from 24N-
  29N west of 71W, and supported by upper-level divergent flow.
  
  For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along about 28N
  will lift north to 30N through tonight and strengthen. This
  pattern will support mainly gentle to moderate breezes across the
  region through early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds
  north of Hispaniola starting tonight.
  
  $$
  Stripling
  

• Sun, 22 May 2022 11:07:27 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
• Fri, 20 May 2022 23:07:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 202307
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Reinhart
  

• Thu, 31 Mar 2022 13:00:59 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 311300
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   0900 AM EDT THU 31 MARCH 2022
   SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
            VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2022
            WSPOD NUMBER.....21-121
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS
          DICTATE OTHERWISE.
   
   $$
   SEF
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Wed, 01 Dec 2021 12:30:41 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011230
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Wed Dec 1 2021
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  No tropical cyclones formed in the basin during November. However,
  Tropical Storm Wanda continued from the end of October through the
  first seven days of November. Based on a 30-year climatology
  (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one to two
  years.
  
  Overall, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
  activity. Twenty-one named storms formed, of which seven became
  hurricanes and four became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher
  on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the
  long-term averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major
  hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which
  measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and
  hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2021 was also above normal,
  about 20 percent above the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2021&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Ana 22-23 May 45*
  TS Bill 14-15 Jun 65*
  TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
  TS Danny 27-29 Jun 45*
  H Elsa 1- 9 Jul 85
  TS Fred 11-17 Aug 65*
  MH Grace 13-21 Aug 125
  H Henri 16-23 Aug 75
  MH Ida 26 Aug- 1 Sep 150
  TS Kate 28 Aug- 1 Sep 45
  TS Julian 28-30 Aug 60*
  MH Larry 31 Aug-11 Sep 125
  TS Mindy 8-10 Sep 45
  H Nicholas 12-16 Sep 75
  TS Odette 17-18 Sep 45*
  TS Peter 19-22 Sep 50
  TS Rose 19-23 Sep 50
  MH Sam 22 Sep- 5 Oct 150
  STS Teresa 24-25 Sep 45
  TS Victor 29 Sep- 4 Oct 65
  TS Wanda 31 Oct- 7 Nov 50
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit