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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Fri, 20 May 2022 23:07:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202307
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Fri, 20 May 2022 22:49:12 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 202249
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 21 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre
(CAG), is developing across Central America and the adjacent
southwest Caribbean today. The monsoon trough has begun to shift
northward across the tropical northeast Pacific, increasing SW
winds and advecting tropical moisture over Central America. Heavy
to extreme rainfall is possible over portions of Guatemala, El
Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama. There is
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially across
mountainous terrain. This event is expected to last through early
next week. Please refer to products issued by your local weather
service for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 51W, from 01N
to 14N moving west around 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N-07N between 44W-54W.
A tropical wave is exiting the far western Caribbean with axis
south of 19N along 89W and across Central America, moving west
around 10 kt. Associated convection is occurring over land near
the wave at this time, and extends across the adjacent Pacific
waters. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
behind the wave from 14N-16.5N between 80W-84W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to
07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 02N45W. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N-09W east
of 25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
south of 07N between 44W-54W. The eastern North Pacific's monsoon
trough extends across Central America, along the border of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua, and extends to 11N75W along the coast of Colombia.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of 14N west
of 76W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
The gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over NE
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE flow across the
majority of the basin, with strong winds occurring along the SE
Texas coast. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 4-7 ft in
the western Gulf. Low level moisture has moved from the southeast
Gulf this morning to offshore of central Florida, where divergent
upper-level flow is supporting scattered moderate convection
from 26.5N-28N and east of 85W. Otherwise, clear to mostly fair
skies prevail across the basin. Smoke from seasonal agricultural
fires over Mexico continues to spread northward and is producing
hazy skies across the western two-thirds of the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure will build over the western
Atlantic through Sun as low pressure develops over Central America
and the Bay of Campeche. This will allow for mostly fresh
southeast winds over the western Gulf to expand eastward tonight
into Sat. Fresh to strong southeast winds from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea will surge into the central Gulf waters and Yucatan
Channel from from Sat through Sun, diminishing to fresh speeds Sun
night. Elsewhere, winds and seas will then diminish slightly
across most of the basin Sun into Mon as the pressure gradient
relaxes, leaving only pulses of fresh to occasionally strong winds
at night off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh
return flow is expected over the western Gulf Mon night through
Tue night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a
potential heavy rainfall event associated with a Central American
Gyre (CAG).
The Bermuda High is interacting with lower pressure over Central
America, associated with the developing Central American Gyre, and
is forcing fresh to strong E to SE trades over the central and W
Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades over the E Caribbean. Seas
are 7-10 ft over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the W
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 26.5N-28N and east of
85W in association with a tropical wave and the developing
Central American Gyre. Mostly fair and hazy skies prevail
elsewhere east of 75W as Saharan Air and areas of suspended dust
have moved into the basin behind the tropical wave.
For the forecast, winds and seas across the basin will increase
tonight into the weekend as the western Atlantic ridge
strengthens and broad low pressure over Central America
gradually shifts west to northwestward. The strongest winds and
highest seas are expected to be over parts of the northwestern
and south-central Caribbean during this period. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will start to diminish across the basin early
next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Ridging associated with the Bermuda and Azores Highs stretches
across the basin along 29N-32N. Winds north of a line from 26N30W
to 21N57W to 28N80W are gentle or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.
South of the line and east of 60W, the NE to E trades are
moderate to fresh and with seas 5-8 ft. Saharan Air and suspended
dust dominate much of this area producing hazy skies. West of
60W, moderate SE to S winds prevail with seas 2-4 ft. Southerly
low level flow across the far eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida and
the Bahamas has advected moisture northward this afternoon, and
has erupted into scattered moderate to strong convection from 24N-
29N west of 71W, and supported by upper-level divergent flow.
For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along about 28N
will lift north to 30N through tonight and strengthen. This
pattern will support mainly gentle to moderate breezes across the
region through early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds
north of Hispaniola starting tonight.
$$
Stripling
Active Tropical Systems
- Sun, 22 May 2022 11:07:27 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - Fri, 20 May 2022 23:07:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202307
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Thu, 31 Mar 2022 13:00:59 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 311300 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0900 AM EDT THU 31 MARCH 2022 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2022 WSPOD NUMBER.....21-121 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. NOTE: THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS DICTATE OTHERWISE. $$ SEF NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Wed, 01 Dec 2021 12:30:41 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011230
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Dec 1 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
No tropical cyclones formed in the basin during November. However,
Tropical Storm Wanda continued from the end of October through the
first seven days of November. Based on a 30-year climatology
(1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one to two
years.
Overall, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
activity. Twenty-one named storms formed, of which seven became
hurricanes and four became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the
long-term averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major
hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which
measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and
hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2021 was also above normal,
about 20 percent above the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2021&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Ana 22-23 May 45*
TS Bill 14-15 Jun 65*
TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
TS Danny 27-29 Jun 45*
H Elsa 1- 9 Jul 85
TS Fred 11-17 Aug 65*
MH Grace 13-21 Aug 125
H Henri 16-23 Aug 75
MH Ida 26 Aug- 1 Sep 150
TS Kate 28 Aug- 1 Sep 45
TS Julian 28-30 Aug 60*
MH Larry 31 Aug-11 Sep 125
TS Mindy 8-10 Sep 45
H Nicholas 12-16 Sep 75
TS Odette 17-18 Sep 45*
TS Peter 19-22 Sep 50
TS Rose 19-23 Sep 50
MH Sam 22 Sep- 5 Oct 150
STS Teresa 24-25 Sep 45
TS Victor 29 Sep- 4 Oct 65
TS Wanda 31 Oct- 7 Nov 50
---------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
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