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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Wed, 29 Nov 2023 17:14:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291714
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Wed, 29 Nov 2023 18:17:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 291817
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 02N33W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N33W to 01N47W. Numerous strong convection is
along the African coast from 00N to 10N and extends westward
20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to
06N between 23W and 37W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A broad surface ridge dominates the Gulf, centered on a 1027 mb
high over the lower Mississippi Valley. Fresh NE winds are noted
in the Bay of Campeche, where seas are 7 to 11 ft. Fresh NE winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted south of 25N across the basin,
with mainly moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the
northern Gulf.
For the forecast, seas in the southern Bay of Campeche will
continue to subside today. A low pres has dissipated across the
western gulf, and a surface trough now prevails across the area.
Strong return flow will set up across the northern Gulf by
tonight ahead of the next approaching front that will push off
the Texas coast on Fri.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. No significant convection
is depicted in association with the front except for some
scattered thunderstorms offshore the Yucatan Peninsula.
A recent scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean between 70W and 82W, with the
strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia. An altimeter pass
found sesa up to 11 ft in the area of strong winds. Seas
elsewhere in this area are from 6 to 10 ft. East of 70W,
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted.
For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge over the eastern
Caribbean Sea will continue shifting E today as the front stalls
in the NW basin. This will decrease the coverage of fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean today and Thu. The
large area of strong winds will return by Fri night as another
high pressure builds over the area. A stationary front stretches
from Cuba to Belize with moderate winds and 7 ft seas behind it.
The front will linger over this area before dissipating later in
the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A pair of cold fronts is over the western Atlantic, extending
from a low-pressure system north of our area. The leading cold
front extends from 31N56W to 24N70W, where it becomes
stationary, continuing to the southern Bahamas and central Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front, north of
25N. The second cold front extends from 31N64W to 29N77W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the leading front, north
of 29N. Moderate or less NW winds are behind the boundaries,
shifting to NE west of 70W. Seas are 4 ft or less.
High pressure extends across the central Atlantic, anchored by a
1019 mb high near 30N44W. Light to gentle winds with seas to 5
ft are noted under the influence of the high.
In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N24W to
22N35W. Fresh S winds are ahead, and W winds are behind the
front with seas 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4
to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast W of 55W, the cold fronts will gradually
dissipate through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh winds will
persist behind the front today. Winds across the area will veer
E to SE Thu night and Fri while becoming fresh to strong as the
high pressure moves E of Bermuda.
$$
Mora
Active Tropical Systems
- Wed, 29 Nov 2023 17:14:59 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 29 Nov 2023 18:17:21 GMT - Wed, 29 Nov 2023 17:14:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 291714
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Wed, 29 Nov 2023 16:35:57 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 291635 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1135 AM EST WED 29 NOVEMBER 2023 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z DECEMBER 2023 TCPOD NUMBER.....23-183 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE. THE PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE AS FOLLOWS: 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 03/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. $$ WJM NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Wed, 01 Nov 2023 11:59:53 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011159
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin was near normal in
October with the formation of two named storms, with one of those
becoming a hurricane (Tammy). One tropical depression also formed.
In addition, Tropical Storms Philippe and Rina both completed their
life cycle early in October. Based on a 30-year climatology
(1991-2020), between 2-3 named storms typically develop in October,
with one of them becoming a hurricane, and one a major hurricane.
Philippe which formed in September affected portions of the northern
Leeward Islands as a tropical storm early in the month. Tammy also
affected portions of the Leeward Islands in October. Tammy made
landfall as a hurricane on Barbuda during the evening of 21 October.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One moved inland over Nicaragua a few
days later bringing heavy rainfall with flash and urban flooding.
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
the basin so far in 2023 has been about 30 percent above average
compared to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Unnamed STS 16-17 Jan 70*
TS Arlene 1-3 Jun 40*
TS Bret 19-24 Jun 70*
TS Cindy 22-26 Jun 60*
H Don 14-24 Jul 75
TS Emily 20-21 Aug 50
MH Franklin 20 Aug- 1 Sep 150
TS Gert 19- 4 Sep 60
TS Harold 21-23 Aug 50
MH Idalia 26-31 Aug 130
TS Jose 29 Aug- 1 Sep 60
TS Katia 1- 4 Sep 60
MH Lee 5-16 Sep 165
H Margot 7-17 Sep 90
H Nigel 15-22 Sep 100
TS Ophelia 21-24 Sep 70
TS Philippe 23 Sep- 6 Oct 50
TS Rina 28 Sep- 1 Oct 50
TS Sean 11-15 Oct 45
H Tammy 18-29 Oct 105
TD Twenty-One 23-24 Oct 30
-----------------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
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