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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
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Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Wed, 22 Sep 2021 23:02:10 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 222302
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Peter, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico,
    on Tropical Depression Rose, located about 1200 miles west-northwest
    of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on newly designated Tropical
    Depression Eighteen, located about 2000 miles east-southeast of the
    northern Leeward Islands.

    A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
    Odette, is located about 600 miles west-northwest of the
    westernmost Azores. This low is expected to be nearly stationary
    over cold waters through Thursday, but it could become a
    subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves southward over
    marginally warmer waters on Friday and Saturday. Strong upper-level
    winds are expected to develop over the system during the weekend,
    which would likely limit its development. Additional information
    on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
    Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

    &&

    Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued under
    WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued
    under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
    online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Berg

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Wed, 22 Sep 2021 23:17:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 222317
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Thu Sep 23 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2300 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Peter is expected to become a remnant low soon. At 22/2100 UTC,
    Tropical Depression Peter is centered near 21.7N 66.7W or 200 nm
    N of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
    central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
    kt with gusts to 40 kt. The convection continues to be located
    well to the east of the center due to vertical shear. The
    depression is moving toward the north-northwest. A similar motion
    with gradual turn to the north is expected tonight followed by a
    turn toward the north-northeast tomorrow. Gradual weakening is
    expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to
    degenerate into a remnant low tonight or tomorrow. Please, read
    the read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
    MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Peter NHC Forecast/Advisory and
    Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    Tropical Depression Rose is centered near 24.2N 40.2W at 22/2100
    UTC or 1030 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 9 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Rose is a swirl of low-
    level clouds, with the only significant convection occurring
    about 120 nm southeast of the center. The depression is moving
    toward the west-northwest. A northwestward motion is expected
    tonight, with a turn toward the north forecast by Thursday night.
    A motion toward the northeast is expected on Friday. Gradual
    weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose
    is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area on
    Thursday or Thursday night. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS
    FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website-
    https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rose
    NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
    for more details.

    Another Tropical Depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic,
    and it is expected to strengthen over the next several days. The
    depression is forecast to become a tropical storm (named Sam) by
    tomorrow, and could be near hurricane intensity by the weekend.
    At 22/2100 UTC, Tropical Depression Eighteen is centered near
    10.1N 33.9W moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
    is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
    40 kt. The depression is moving toward the west and this motion
    is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a
    gradual turn to the west-northwest by Friday. Please, read the
    latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
    at website- https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
    latest T.D. Eighteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
    at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
    Odette, is located more than 500 miles west-northwest of the
    westernmost Azores. This low is beginning to develop more
    concentrated shower activity and could become a subtropical or
    tropical cyclone as it moves slowly across marginally warm waters
    over the north-central Atlantic Ocean during the next several days.
    However, by the weekend, this system is expected to move south into
    an environment of strong upper-level winds. Additional information
    on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in the
    latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center
    at website-
    https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?=idNFDHSFA1.
    This system has a medium chance of subtropical or tropical
    cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please, see the latest
    Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    At this moment, no tropical waves are in the analysis/surface
    map between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and across the
    Caribbean Sea.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
    near 14N17W then continues SW and W to 10N33W to 08N40W. The
    ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N50W to NE Venezuela. No significant
    convection is noted along the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    An early season cold front is moving across the Gulf region and
    extends from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh
    to strong northerly winds are noted per scatterometer data in the
    wake of the front. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms
    are observed along the frontal boundary. Similar convective
    activity is seen once again across the Florida Peninsula. Plenty
    of moisture in a southerly wind flow will persist over South Florida
    on Thu, keeping the likelihood of more showers and thunderstorms.
    A diffluent pattern aloft is also helping to induce this convective
    activity.

    For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move southeastward
    through Thu, stall from roughly Fort Myers, Florida to the coast
    of Veracruz, Mexico near 18N95W Fri, then dissipate Sat. Fresh
    to strong winds will follow the front over the northwest and
    north-central Gulf into tonight. Fresh to strong winds will funnel
    along the coast of Veracruz Thu, with seas building to 9 ft.
    Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across basin from Sat
    and into early next week as high pressure builds over the northern
    Gulf. Of note, this cold front will support the first gap wind
    event, with minimal gale force northerly winds, in the Tehuantepec
    region tonight into Thu morning.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please read the Special Features section above for details on
    Tropical Depression Peter located about 200 nm N of San Juan
    Puerto Rico.

    An upper-level trough extends from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias
    a Dios, Nicaragua. A diffluent pattern aloft, on the W side of
    this trough, continues to enhance scattered to numerous showers
    and thunderstorms over Cuba, including the Isle of Youth as well
    as over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala. Strong
    southwesterly flow on the E side of the same trough is helping to
    induce convection over most of Hispaniola. Showers and thunderstorms
    have also flared-up over northern Colombia and parts of Panama,
    Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The eastern extent of the eastern Pacific
    monsoon trough is also contributing to the development of this
    convection. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin
    with seas generally of 2-4 ft. Seas of 3-4 ft are noted across
    the Caribbean passages.

    For the forecast, newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen well
    east of the area is forecast to gradually strengthen to a hurricane
    as it reaches near 53W on Mon. Expect for trades winds to increase
    and seas to build over the far eastern part of the tropical north
    Atlantic waters beginning Mon. Meanwhile trade winds over the south-
    central Caribbean will diminish through Thu night. Fresh trade
    winds will expand westward in coverage from the eastern Caribbean
    to the western Caribbean from late Fri through the weekend, then
    diminish over the western Caribbean early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please read the Special Features section above for details on
    Tropical Depression Peter, Tropical Depression Rose, and newly
    formed Tropical Depression Eighteen.

    The Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary
    Islands has been erupting since 19/1410 UTC. The volcano is still
    emitting ashes, mainly around the volcano drifting SSW below
    10,000 ft, and NE above 10,000 ft. Marine and aviation interests
    should monitor this on-going situation by reading Volcanic Ash
    Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes
    /la-palma/. The next advisory will be issue no later than 23/0300
    UTC.

    A stationary front extends from 31N43W to 27N60W to 28N75W to the
    coast of South Carolina. Scattered showers are along the frontal
    boundary. E of the front, a ridge continues to dominate the Atlantic
    waters E of 35W, including the Azores, Madeiras and Canary Islands.
    Mainly light to gentle NE to E winds are observed per satellite
    derived wind data under the influence of the ridge. Moderate to
    fresh NE winds are noted off southern Morocco and Mauritania to
    near 22W.

    For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move off the northeast
    Florida coast tonight, continue to the southeast Thu, stall from
    31N77W to near Fort Pierce, Florida by late Fri, then dissipate
    through early Sat evening.

    $$
    GR

Active Tropical Systems

  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:47 +0000: Tropical Depression Eighteen Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    Tropical Depression Eighteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:47 GMT

    Tropical Depression Eighteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:48 GMT
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 +0000: Tropical Depression Rose Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    Tropical Depression Rose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 GMT

    Tropical Depression Rose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 GMT
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:42 +0000: Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 16 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
    
    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 230238
    TCDAT2
     
    Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number  16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
    1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
     
    Rose continues to be devoid of deep convection as shear and dry
    mid-level air has taken their toll on the system.  Although Rose
    appears to be well on its way to post-tropical cyclone status, it
    seems prudent to maintain advisories a little longer since the
    system is over warm waters and some convection could return
    overnight.  If that does not occur, Rose is likely to become
    a remnant low by tomorrow morning, and that is what is indicated in
    the official forecast.  The remnant low is forecast to continue to
    gradually spin down over the next day or two. The GFS and ECMWF
    suggest that some convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h time
    period when the remnants of Rose interact with an upper-level
    trough, but the NHC forecast once again does not call for
    re-generation at that time. In fact, the latest forecast calls for
    the system to become an open trough by 96 h, which is supported by
    the GFS.
     
    Rose has continued to move west-northwestward or 285/9 kt.  The
    cyclone should turn northwestward very soon as it moves around the
    western flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Rose or its remnants
    should then turn northward, northeastward, and then eventually
    east-northeastward as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the
    east-central Atlantic.  The latest guidance envelope has again
    shifted westward in the short term, and the updated NHC track
    forecast has been adjusted accordingly. After 36 h, the official
    forecast lies near the previous advisory and is close to the
    various consensus aids.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  23/0300Z 24.6N  40.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  23/1200Z 25.7N  41.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     24H  24/0000Z 27.2N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  24/1200Z 28.4N  41.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  25/0000Z 29.0N  39.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  25/1200Z 29.5N  36.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  26/0000Z 30.2N  33.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
     
    
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:42 +0000: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
    
    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 230238
    TCDAT3
     
    Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number   2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182021
    1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
     
    The depression's organization has not improved since earlier this 
    afternoon.  An analysis of the ambiguities from 0000 UTC ASCAT-B 
    data suggests that the surface circulation is just barely closed, 
    with the center still attached to the northern end of a trough.  
    Peak wind retrievals from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt, so 
    the initial intensity remains 30 kt.
    
    Based on the ASCAT data, the depression appears to be moving just 
    north of due west, or 275/13 kt.  Low- to mid-level ridging to the 
    north is expected to maintain the cyclone on a westward heading for 
    the next 36 hours, followed by a path toward the west-northwest 
    from day 2 through day 5.  The more notable part of the forecast is 
    the forward speed.  Global models are showing anomalously strong 
    500-mb ridging developing over the eastern and central Caribbean 
    Sea in 2 to 3 days, which is likely to block the depression's 
    forward progress toward the end of the forecast period.  In fact, 
    the current NHC forecast has the system moving west-northwestward 
    at only 7 or 8 kt well east of the Lesser Antilles on days 3 through 
    5.  All this means that it will probably be a few more days before 
    we have a better idea if and how the system might potentially 
    threaten areas farther west.  For the 5-day forecast period, there 
    is a normal amount of spread among the track guidance, and the 
    updated NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA 
    consensus aids.  This solution is not too different from the 
    previous forecast.
     
    Overall, an environment of low shear, warm sea surface 
    temperatures, and a moist, unstable atmosphere appears conducive 
    for strengthening.  However, there is some sort of signal being 
    conveyed by the global models (e.g., the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) 
    whereby the cyclone's surface circulation does not really tighten 
    up for another 24 to 48 hours.  Given the system's current 
    structure, this scenario seems plausible.  Therefore, the updated 
    NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening during 
    the first 48 hours, just a bit below the intensity consensus in 
    deference to the global model solutions.  After 48 hours, the 
    official forecast converges on top of the previous NHC forecast and 
    still brings the cyclone to hurricane, and then possibly major 
    hurricane, strength by the end of the forecast period.  
    
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  23/0300Z 10.2N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  23/1200Z 10.4N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
     24H  24/0000Z 10.9N  39.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
     36H  24/1200Z 11.4N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
     48H  25/0000Z 12.0N  44.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
     60H  25/1200Z 12.6N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
     72H  26/0000Z 13.2N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
     96H  27/0000Z 14.5N  50.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
    120H  28/0000Z 16.0N  53.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
     
    $$
    Forecaster Berg
     
    
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:13 +0000: Summary for Tropical Depression Rose (AT2/AL172021) - NHC Atlantic
    ...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Rose was located near 24.6, -40.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Wed, 22 Sep 2021 14:51:38 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 221451
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1050 AM EDT WED 22 SEPTEMBER 2021
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2021
              TCPOD NUMBER.....21-114
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Wed, 01 Sep 2021 12:43:05 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011242
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during August was
    above normal in terms of the numbers of named storms, hurricanes,
    and major hurricanes. Six named storms formed in the Atlantic basin
    in August, with three of them becoming hurricanes, and two of those
    becoming major hurricanes. Grace was a category 3 hurricane when it
    made landfall just south of Tuxpan, Mexico, on 22 August, and Ida
    was a category 4 hurricane when it made landfall near Port Fourchon,
    Louisiana, on 29 August. One tropical depression formed on the last
    day of the month. Based on a 30-year climatology (1991-2020), 3 or
    4 named storms typically develop in August, with one or two of them
    becoming hurricanes. A major hurricane forms in August every 1 to 2
    years.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity
    in the basin so far in 2021 is above normal, almost 25 percent
    above the long-term mean. The 11 named storms through the end of
    August is well above the 30-year (1991-2020) average of 6 to 7
    named storms by the end of the month.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2021&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Ana 22-23 May 45*
    TS Bill 14-16 Jun 60
    TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
    TS Danny 28-29 Jun 45
    H Elsa 1-9 Jul 85
    TS Fred 11-18 Aug 65
    MH Grace 13-21 Aug 125
    H Henri 16-23 Aug 75
    MH Ida 26 Aug- 150
    TS Kate 28 Aug- 45
    TS Julian 29-30 Aug 60
    TD Twelve 31 Aug- 35
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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