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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2023 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

2023 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Mon, 16 Jan 2023 15:02:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 161502
    TWOAT

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
    subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

    Northwestern Atlantic:
    A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
    Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
    storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
    thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
    mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
    northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
    much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
    Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
    subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
    expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
    so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
    can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
    Service.

    No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
    this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    be issued as necessary during the off-season.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
    online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Sun, 26 Mar 2023 17:34:56 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 261734
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic
    high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue
    to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
    pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia
    through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 13 ft
    each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W. Recent scattetometer data
    provide observations of 25 to 30 kt witin about 90 nm of the coast
    of Colombia, with 20 to 25 kt winds elsewhere across the central
    Caribbean.

    Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell associated with
    a complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic has
    propagated into the forecast waters. Seas greater than 12 ft are
    covering the waters N of 30N between 38W and 52W, peaking near 15
    ft. Seas in excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of
    25N and east of 45W Sun and Sun night, before shifting east of 35W
    early Mon. Maximum combined seas will be 17 ft near 31N42W late
    today. Wave periods will average 14 to 16 seconds.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
    Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near
    07N11W and continues SW to 02N22W. The ITCZ extends from 02N22W
    to 01N30W to 00N50W. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection
    is noted from 00N to 03N between 07W and 11W. Scattered moderate
    to isolated strong convection is elsewhere, from 00N to 05N
    between 05W and 19W. Similar convective activity is also seen from
    00N to 02N between 30W and 40W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure located south of Bermuda has a ridge extending across
    Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of this
    system, gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed across the
    Gulf waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range north of the Yucatan
    peninsula, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere N of 22N and W of 85W. Seas
    are 1 to 3 ft across the offshore waters of Florida, and 2 to 4 ft
    in the Bay of Campeche. Buoy and platform observations indicate
    areas of fog over the NW Gulf while abundant cloudiness dominates
    the coastal waters of Texas due to the presence of stationary
    front located just inland.

    For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan
    peninsula during the evening hours through Tue. A cold front
    entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue morning will move southeastward
    and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico,
    Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the Florida
    Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong
    NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the
    front into Wed morning. Afterward, a high pressure near the US
    Mid-Atlantic coast will reinforce the front and create moderate to
    fresh easterly winds across the Bay of Campeche and southeastern
    Gulf after midweek.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
    Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

    Strong to near gale-force winds prevail over the south central
    Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia while fresh to strong winds
    are seen over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Fresh to
    strong SE winds are noted W of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras.
    Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except gentle winds in
    the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the south
    central Caribbean based on a pair of altimeter passes, and 6 to 8
    ft over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere,
    except 2 to 4 ft in the lee of Cuba.

    Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
    are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered
    passing showers. Some of these patches of moisture are affecting
    the Leeward Islands, the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and
    also the Cayman Islands.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
    north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will support
    fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through
    the middle of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to
    gale-force at night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade
    winds will persist in the Windward Passage and north of Hispaniola
    through Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
    the Gulf of Honduras until Wed afternoon, occasionally reaching
    near-gale force locally. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
    prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
    event that is already propagating across the forecast waters.

    High pressure of 1023 mb is centered south of Bermuda near 29N63W
    and dominates the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and
    Florida. The associated ridge also reaches the NE Caribbean. Fresh
    to locally strong E to SE winds are between Haiti and the Turks
    and Caicos Islands, including the approach to the Windward Passage.
    Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high. A cold
    front extends from 31N39W to 28N45W to 30N57W. Moderate to fresh
    winds are on either side of the front mainly N of 27N and E of
    50W. The aforementioned swell event follows this front forecast to
    move SE through Sun while weakening. Aside from the area of seas
    greater than 12 ft, seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail N of 28N between
    35W and 55W. A ridge extends across the Madeira and the Canary
    Islands. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 55W and the
    Lesser Antilles while mainly moderate trades are noted across the
    remainder of the tropical Atlantic with seas generally in the 5 to
    7 ft range.

    For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
    western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off
    the US east coast on Tue evening, then slowly track eastward
    north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and
    higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front.
    High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the
    pressure gradient, generating fresh NE to E winds across the
    Bahamas by Thu.

    $$
    GR

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Sun, 26 Mar 2023 13:45:59 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 261345
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     0945 AM EDT SUN 26 MARCH 2023
     SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z MARCH 2023
              WSPOD NUMBER.....22-116
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:52:46 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011252
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during November was
    above average in terms of the number of named storms and
    hurricanes. Two hurricanes (Martin and Nicole) formed in the basin
    during November, and Lisa which developed in late October became a
    hurricane early in November. Based on a 30-year climatology
    (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November every one or two
    years. Although Martin did not affect land as a tropical cyclone,
    Nicole became a hurricane when it was affecting the northwestern
    Bahamas, and it became the first November hurricane to make landfall
    in Florida since Kate in 1985. Lisa also made landfall in Belize
    as a hurricane during the month of November.

    Overall, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season featured near normal
    activity in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes, but
    was slightly below average in terms of the number of major
    hurricanes. In 2022, fourteen named storms formed, of which eight
    became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or
    higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
    the long-term (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes,
    and 3 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
    (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms
    and hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2022 was slightly
    below average. The ACE for 2022 is 80 percent of the long-term
    (1991-2020) mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
    TS Bonnie 1-9 Jul 115
    TS Colin 1-2 Jul 40*
    H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
    H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
    MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
    TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
    MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
    TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
    TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
    TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
    H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
    TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
    H Lisa 31 Oct-5 Nov 85
    H Martin 1-3 Nov 85
    H Nicole 7-11 Nov 75
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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