Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Fri, 12 Aug 2022 23:25:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 122325
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
  Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
  trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of
  Mexico. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow
  to occur while it moves slowly west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
  approaching the Texas coast tonight and Saturday, and moving inland
  over southern Texas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally
  heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through
  the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy
  rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather
  Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. An Air Force
  Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
  system on Saturday, if necessary.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
  
  &&
  For more information on the system, see products issued by the
  National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  
  $$
  Forecaster Berg
  

• Fri, 12 Aug 2022 22:50:33 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 122250
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0005 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  2230 UTC.
  
  ...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
  A tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 19W, from 20N
  southward, moving W at 10-15 kt based on 700 mb wind speeds. A
  1008 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 14N19W.
  Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity
  of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the
  Monsoon Trough, is west of the wave axis from 07N to 18N and E of
  29W.
  
  A tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from 23N southward,
  moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
  vicinity of the wave axis, mainly where it meets the monsoon
  trough.
  
  A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles arc, with axis
  extending along 60W from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15
  kt. No significant convection is noted over the waters at this
  time.
  
  A tropical wave located in the central Caribbean is along 74W,
  from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
  moderate convection is east of the wave axis, from 16N to 20N
  between 67W and 74W, affecting Hispaniola and La Mona Passage.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 16N17W
  to 1008 mb low pressure near 14N19W to 11N38W to 10N60W. Aside
  from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above,
  scattered showers prevail from 07N to 19N between 41W and 59W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  1014 mb low pressure is centered in the NW Gulf near 29N92W, with
  a trough extending from 30N91W to 25N97W. These features,
  combined with broad surface convergence across the northern Gulf,
  is producing scattered moderate convection across the northern
  half of the basin north of 24N. Winds and seas may be locally
  higher in the convection. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, gentle
  to moderate SE to S winds prevail along the periphery of the
  subtropical Atlantic ridge, with seas of 2-4 ft.
  
  For the forecast, the weak Atlantic high pressure will sink
  southeast through Tue. This will allow for gentle to moderate
  winds over the basin to weaken to light to gentle into next week.
  Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during the late
  afternoon and evenings off the NW Yucatan peninsula through early
  next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
  associated with a low pressure trough and weak low pressure that
  is along it are over most of the northern Gulf waters. This system
  will drift west-southwestward over the NW Gulf and toward the
  Texas coast during the weekend. Development, if any, of this
  system is expected to be slow to occur. Strong gusty winds and
  rough seas can be expected with this activity. Meanwhile, a weak
  frontal boundary is expected to stall just north of the central
  and NE Gulf during the weekend.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
  moving across the basin.
  
  The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades in
  the eastern and central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades in
  the western Caribbean. A 1010 mb Colombian/Panamanian low is in
  the SW Caribbean near 12N83W, along the extension of the East
  Pacific Monsoon Trough. Scattered moderate convection is to the
  northwest of the low, from 11N to 14N west of 81W including
  coastal regions of Nicaragua.
  
  For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will drift southward
  and weaken through early next week. Moderate to fresh trade winds
  over the central Caribbean will weaken to moderate Sat through
  Mon, then increase to fresh late Mon through Tue night. A broad
  surface trough accompanies a tropical wave across the central
  Atlantic, and is expected to move across the Tropical N Atlantic
  tonight night through Sat night, across the eastern Caribbean
  early Sun through early Mon, across the central Caribbean Mon
  through late Wed.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
  moving across the basin.
  
  An outflow boundary is analyzed in the deep tropics, from 14N41W
  to 10N43W, moving west at 15-20 kt. E winds to 30 kt were captured
  well in scatterometer data this morning behind this boundary. The
  remainder of the tropical Atlantic continues to be dominated by
  the subtropical ridge located north of the area. NE to E winds are
  gentle to moderate across the basin, except from 18N to 24N east
  of 30W where NE winds are fresh. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 19N and
  west of 55W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in open waters. Seas are locally
  8 ft NE of the Cabo Verde Islands.
  
  For the forecast W of 55W, the ridge that extends from the
  central Atlantic WSW to northern Florida along 29N, will weaken
  and sink southward through early next week as a frontal boundary
  moves off the eastern seaboard and begins to weaken as it stalls
  from across NE Florida east-northeastward to north of 31N78W.
  Moderate to fresh E winds S of 25N will veer to the SE and weaken
  to gentle early Sat and change little into next week. Light to
  gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through the period. A
  tropical wave will reach the southeast forecast waters by early
  Sat, bringing a slight increase in winds and seas over those
  waters through early Mon. A cold front may move over the waters
  northeast of NE Florida late Tue, then stall and weaken through
  Wed night.
  
  $$
  ERA
  

• Fri, 12 Aug 2022 23:25:57 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
  No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 13 Aug 2022 03:29:49 GMT
• Fri, 12 Aug 2022 23:25:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 122325
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
  Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
  trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of
  Mexico. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow
  to occur while it moves slowly west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
  approaching the Texas coast tonight and Saturday, and moving inland
  over southern Texas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally
  heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through
  the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy
  rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather
  Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. An Air Force
  Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
  system on Saturday, if necessary.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
  
  &&
  For more information on the system, see products issued by the
  National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  
  $$
  Forecaster Berg
  

• Fri, 12 Aug 2022 15:43:47 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 121543
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1145 AM EDT FRI 12 AUGUST 2022
   SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
            VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2022
            TCPOD NUMBER.....22-078
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO)
          FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
          A. 13/1800Z                   A. 14/0530Z,1130Z
          B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
          C. 13/1630Z                   C. 14/0400Z
          D. 27.5N 95.0W                D. 27.0N 97.0W
          E. 13/1730Z TO 13/2230Z       E. 14/0500Z TO 14/1130Z
          F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
          G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST           G. FIX
   
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   $$
   SEF/SCW
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Mon, 01 Aug 2022 11:30:09 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011130
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Two tropical storms (Bonnie and Colin) formed in the basin during
  July. Bonnie formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and moved
  across Central America and into the eastern North Pacific basin and
  Colin was a short-lived storm near the Carolina coast. So far,
  seasonal activity has been near average based on the 30-year
  climatology (1991-2020).
  
  In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
  strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
  the basin so far in 2022 has been a little below average compared
  to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70
  TS Bonnie 1-2 Jul 50
  TS Colin 2-3 Jul 40
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit