2024 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Sat, 30 Nov 2024 23:31:37 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 302331
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
  
  This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
  the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the
  Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the
  off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
  conditions warrant.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Beven
  
  

• Sun, 08 Dec 2024 06:12:58 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 080612
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  0615 UTC Sun Dec 8 2024
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  0550 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains
  of Sierra Leone close to 07N12W, to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues
  from 05N22W, to 02N30W, to the Equator along 40W, to the Equator
  along 46W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is
  from 07N southward from 40W eastward.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A cold front extends from the NW Caribbean Sea, just to the south
  of NW Cuba, through the northernmost sections of the Yucatan
  Peninsula, to 21N92W off the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.
  A stationary front continues from 21N92W, to a 1020 mb 27N95.5W
  low pressure center. A cold front extends from the 1020 mb low
  pressure center, to 23N96W. A surface trough continues from the
  1020 mb low pressure center, beyond 28N97W inland in Texas.
  Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N
  northward from 90W westward. Fresh to moderate surface
  anticyclonic wind flow is to the east of the frontal boundary.
  Moderate seas cover most of the Gulf. One exception is for slight
  seas in the Tampa Florida metropolitan area coastal waters.
  Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of
  Mexico.
  
  A low pressure center is located near 27N95.5W. A stationary
  front extends from the low to 21N90W and a cold front is from the
  low to 23N96W. This system will meander across the NW Gulf waters
  through the weekend while weakening. Otherwise, high pressure
  centered over the SE United States will dominate. A cold front is
  forecast to move offshore Texas Tue, then move quickly SE and
  through the basin by late Wed. Behind the front, strong to gale-
  force winds and rapidly building seas can be expected.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Strong NE to E winds, and rough seas, are from 10N to 16N between
  73W and 81W. Strong NE winds, and rough seas, are from 16N to 21N
  between 77W and 86W, including between Cuba and Jamaica. Strong
  NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 17N to 20N between 73W and
  77W. Strong to near gale-force NE winds, and moderate seas, are
  in the Windward Passage. Moderate seas, and moderate to fresh
  winds, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
  
  The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, southwestward
  beyond the border of southern Costa Rica and Panama, and into the
  Pacific Ocean.
  
  The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
  at 08/0000 UTC, are: 0.18 in Guadeloupe; and 0.06 in Curacao.
  This information is from the Pan American Temperature and
  Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.
  
  High pressure centered north of the region is supporting fresh to
  strong winds and rough seas over the NW and central Caribbean,
  including offshore Colombia and through the Windward Passage.
  These winds will prevail until Monday, then the high pressure will
  shift eastward into the central Caribbean, and winds will
  diminish to moderate to fresh, except off the coast of Colombia,
  where fresh to strong winds will prevail.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A cold front passes through 31N55W, to 26N60W 25N70W, through the
  central Bahamas, to 23N78W. A surface trough is from 150 nm to
  200 nm to the southeast of the cold front, from 20N and the
  Windward Passage northeastward. Precipitation: scattered moderate
  to isolated strong is from 30N northward between 40W and 50W.
  Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NW swell, are from 27N
  to 31N between 47W and 66W.
  
  Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NE swell, are from 25N
  northward between 35W and 39W. Strong NE winds, and rough seas in
  NE swell, are from 08N to 11N between 43W and 47W. Fresh NE winds,
  and moderate to rough seas, are elsewhere from 05N to 20N between
  40W and 53W. Fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 05N to
  17N between 30W and 40W.
  
  The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
  at 08/0000 UTC, are: 0.01 in Bermuda. This information is from the
  Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.
  
  A surface trough is along 46W/47W from 12N to 20N. Precipitation:
  broken to overcast multilayered clouds and rainshowers are from
  12N to 20N between 40W and 57W.
  
  Fresh to strong NE winds, and mostly moderate to some rough seas, are
  from 11N to 26N from 30W eastward. Fresh NE winds
  
  Strong surface anticyclonic wind flow, and moderate to rough
  seas, are from 24N to 30N between 26W and 33W. Similar conditions
  are from 13N to 20N between 23W and 29W.
  
  Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough is from 14N northward
  from 40W eastward. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough passes
  through 31N32W, to a 1018 mb 28N33W low pressure center, to
  19N38W. Rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in the NE
  quadrant. is along
  
  A cold front that is located from 31N55W to the central Bahamas
  will gradually dissipate through Sun. Fresh to strong southerly
  winds will develop off northeast Florida Tue night ahead of the
  next cold front forecast to reach from 31N80W to St Augustine by
  Wed afternoon, and from 31N74W to the Straits of Florida Wed
  night. Strong winds and rough seas will rapidly build southward
  behind the front late next week.
  
  $$
  mt/era
  

• Mon, 02 Dec 2024 11:31:37 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

• Sat, 07 Dec 2024 17:51:01 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 071750
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1250 PM EST SAT 07 DECEMBER 2024
   SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
            VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z DECEMBER 2024
            WSPOD NUMBER.....24-007
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   $$
   WJM
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Sun, 01 Dec 2024 03:00:40 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 010300
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1000 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity this November was above average in terms
  of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in
  the Atlantic basin. Three named storms formed during the month,
  including one (Rafael) that became a major hurricane. Based on a
  30-year climatology (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November
  once every year or two, and a hurricane forms once every two years.
  
  Rafael strengthened into a hurricane while passing near Jamaica and
  the Cayman Islands before making landfall in western Cuba as a
  category 3 hurricane. Elsewhere, Patty brought tropical storm
  conditions to portions of the Azores. Sara meandered near the coast
  of Honduras before making landfall as a tropical storm in Belize.
  
  Overall, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had above-normal
  activity in terms of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and
  major hurricanes. In 2024, there were 18 named storms that formed in
  the Atlantic basin, of which 11 became hurricanes and 5 strengthened
  into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson
  Hurricane Wind Scale). These numbers are greater than the long-term
  (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major
  hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which
  measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and
  hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2024 was about 34 percent above
  the long-term (1991-2020) average.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
  National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ------------------------------------------------------------------
  TS Alberto 19-20 Jun 50*
  MH Beryl 28 Jun-9 Jul 165
  TS Chris 30 Jun-1 Jul 45*
  H Debby 3-9 Aug 80
  H Ernesto 12-20 Aug 100
  H Francine 9-12 Sep 100
  TS Gordon 11-17 Sep 45
  MH Helene 24-27 Sep 140
  H Isaac 26-30 Sep 105
  TS Joyce 27 Sep-1 Oct 50
  MH Kirk 29 Sep-7 Oct 145
  H Leslie 2-12 Oct 105
  MH Milton 5-10 Oct 180
  TS Nadine 19-20 Oct 60
  H Oscar 19-22 Oct 85
  TS Patty 2-4 Nov 65
  MH Rafael 4-10 Nov 120
  TS Sara 14-18 Nov 50
  
  ------------------------------------------------------------------
  
  Dates are based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit