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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2022 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Tue, 29 Nov 2022 17:35:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 291735
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Tue, 29 Nov 2022 17:57:30 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 291757
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
    early on Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds.
    Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed
    and early Wed night. As a result, seas will build to 8-10 ft in
    the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered showers and
    thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Winds
    and seas will diminish late Thu. For details on this Gale
    Warning, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
    10N14W to 08N18W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that
    it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N36W to the mouth
    of the Amazon River near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
    is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-40W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A fairly weak pressure gradient exists across the Gulf of
    Mexico, resulting in mainly moderate E to SE winds. Winds
    occasionally reach fresh speeds in the NW Gulf. Seas are mainly
    2 to 4 ft reaching 5 ft in the NW Gul, noted in buoy
    observations. Elsewhere, isolated showers and thunderstorms seen
    in satellite imagery continue in the NE Gulf .

    For the forecast, weak high pressure over the area will shift
    eastward through late tonight as a strong cold front approaches
    eastern Texas. The front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed
    followed by strong to near gale force north to northeast winds.
    Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed
    and early Wed night. This front will reach from northern Florida
    to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night, and from central Florida
    to near Veracruz, Mexico early Thu. The front will reach the
    southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida late Thu and become
    stationary through late Fri while it weakens. Strong high
    pressure behind the front will shift eastward through Fri night
    allowing for winds to become easterly and moderate to fresh in
    speeds across most of the basin. Scattered showers and
    thunderstorms will precede the front.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the
    southwestern Caribbean, more concentrated near and along the
    coast of Panama. Generally tranquil weather conditions prevail
    elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of
    the Caribbean and lower pressure over northern South America is
    maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and
    eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are
    across most of the Caribbean 4-7 ft. Seas up to 5 ft are noted
    within the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes
    are in the northwestern Caribbean, except for mainly fresh E
    winds in the Gulf of Honduras and near the adjacent Bay Islands.
    Seas in the areas described are 2-4 ft.

    For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate
    to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
    Sea through Thu afternoon. Winds will pulse to strong speeds
    overnight tonight and Wed night south of Hispaniola and in the
    Windward Passage. Beginning on Thu evening, fresh to strong
    northeast winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, and in the
    Windward Passage, and continue south of Hispaniola. The fetch
    area will spread southwest over the western and central
    Caribbean sea through Sat night as strengthening high pressure
    shifts offshore the mid-Atlantic region. Long-period north swell
    propagating through the Tropical N Atlantic waters will slowly
    subside through Wed night.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    West of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 31N63W to 27N72W,
    then becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to
    the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are behind
    the boundary. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, with 3 ft seas near
    the Bahamas and Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers and a few
    thunderstorms moving east are seen within about 180 nm east of
    the front north of 26N. Elsewhere, 6 to 9 ft seas continue to
    reach the Leeward Islands, Virginia Islands, and Puerto Rico.

    Farther east, a trough is analyzed from 31N40W to 25N44W and to
    20N45W. A well-defined upper low is shown in water vapor imagery
    just east of the trough, supporting scattered moderate
    convection. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic remains under
    the dominance of an expansive subtropical ridge north of the
    area. Moderate trades are noted north of 20N and east of 40W
    near the ridge axis, where seas continue to be 11 to 13 ft.
    Moderate to fresh trades extend south of 20N, and south of 27N
    between the west coast of Africa and 40W. Seas of 10 to 15 ft
    are noted between 30W and 40W north of 20N, while seas of 9 to
    14 ft are between 40W to 55W.

    For the forecast, the aforementioned weak cold front will reach
    from 31N53W to 26N64W and become stationary to the central
    Bahamas Wed morning, then will dissipate by early Thu as broad
    surface troughing forms east of the forecast waters. A strong
    cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late Wed
    night, reach from near 31N67W to the NW Bahamas and to South
    Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri
    as strong high pressure builds across the area in its wake.
    Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas to
    around 15 ft are expected north and northeast of the Bahamas Fri
    and Fri night. These seas are forecast to build even further Sat
    and Sat night in a long-period north to northeast swell,
    possibly reaching as high as 20 ft in the far northeast part of
    the forecast waters on Sat night. The long-period swell will
    impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto
    Rico with rough seas thru Sat night leading to potentially
    hazardous marine conditions.

    $$
    Mora

Active Tropical Systems

  • Tue, 29 Nov 2022 17:35:06 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 29 Nov 2022 22:02:55 GMT
  • Tue, 29 Nov 2022 17:35:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 291735
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Tue, 29 Nov 2022 16:50:36 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 291650
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1150 AM EST TUE 29 NOVEMBER 2022
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z DECEMBER 2022
              TCPOD NUMBER.....22-187
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     NOTE: THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Tue, 01 Nov 2022 12:07:10 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011207
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during October was
    near normal in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes.
    Three named storms formed in the basin during October with one
    becoming a hurricane. There were no major hurricanes in the
    Atlantic basin during October. Based on a 30-year climatology
    (1991-2020), two to three named storms typically form in October,
    with one of them becoming a hurricane. A major hurricane tends to
    form in October every one to two years.

    Julia affected the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia
    and made landfall in Nicaragua as a hurricane.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
    the basin so far in 2022 is somewhat below average. Through
    October, the ACE for 2022 is 73 percent of the long-term
    (1991-2020) mean value for this time of the year. The 11 named
    storms through the end of October is slightly below the long-term
    average of 13 to 14 named storms by the end of October.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
    TS Bonnie 1-2 Jul 50
    TS Colin 2-3 Jul 40
    H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
    H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
    MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
    TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
    MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
    TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
    TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
    TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
    H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
    TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
    TS Lisa 31- Oct 45
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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