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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2023 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

2023 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Wed, 29 Nov 2023 17:14:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 291714
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Wed, 29 Nov 2023 18:17:20 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 291817
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone
    near 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 02N33W. The ITCZ
    continues from 02N33W to 01N47W. Numerous strong convection is
    along the African coast from 00N to 10N and extends westward
    20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to
    06N between 23W and 37W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A broad surface ridge dominates the Gulf, centered on a 1027 mb
    high over the lower Mississippi Valley. Fresh NE winds are noted
    in the Bay of Campeche, where seas are 7 to 11 ft. Fresh NE winds
    and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted south of 25N across the basin,
    with mainly moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the
    northern Gulf.

    For the forecast, seas in the southern Bay of Campeche will
    continue to subside today. A low pres has dissipated across the
    western gulf, and a surface trough now prevails across the area.
    Strong return flow will set up across the northern Gulf by
    tonight ahead of the next approaching front that will push off
    the Texas coast on Fri.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize.
    Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean.
    Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. No significant convection
    is depicted in association with the front except for some
    scattered thunderstorms offshore the Yucatan Peninsula.

    A recent scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong trade winds
    over the central Caribbean between 70W and 82W, with the
    strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia. An altimeter pass
    found sesa up to 11 ft in the area of strong winds. Seas
    elsewhere in this area are from 6 to 10 ft. East of 70W,
    moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted.

    For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge over the eastern
    Caribbean Sea will continue shifting E today as the front stalls
    in the NW basin. This will decrease the coverage of fresh to
    strong winds in the south-central Caribbean today and Thu. The
    large area of strong winds will return by Fri night as another
    high pressure builds over the area. A stationary front stretches
    from Cuba to Belize with moderate winds and 7 ft seas behind it.
    The front will linger over this area before dissipating later in
    the week.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A pair of cold fronts is over the western Atlantic, extending
    from a low-pressure system north of our area. The leading cold
    front extends from 31N56W to 24N70W, where it becomes
    stationary, continuing to the southern Bahamas and central Cuba.
    Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front, north of
    25N. The second cold front extends from 31N64W to 29N77W.
    Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the leading front, north
    of 29N. Moderate or less NW winds are behind the boundaries,
    shifting to NE west of 70W. Seas are 4 ft or less.

    High pressure extends across the central Atlantic, anchored by a
    1019 mb high near 30N44W. Light to gentle winds with seas to 5
    ft are noted under the influence of the high.

    In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N24W to
    22N35W. Fresh S winds are ahead, and W winds are behind the
    front with seas 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4
    to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

    For the forecast W of 55W, the cold fronts will gradually
    dissipate through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh winds will
    persist behind the front today. Winds across the area will veer
    E to SE Thu night and Fri while becoming fresh to strong as the
    high pressure moves E of Bermuda.

    $$
    Mora

Active Tropical Systems

  • Wed, 29 Nov 2023 17:14:59 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 29 Nov 2023 18:17:21 GMT
  • Wed, 29 Nov 2023 17:14:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 291714
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Wed, 29 Nov 2023 16:35:57 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 291635
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1135 AM EST WED 29 NOVEMBER 2023
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z DECEMBER 2023
              TCPOD NUMBER.....23-183
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     NOTE:  THE ATLANTIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
     
            THE PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
     
            1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
            2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
            3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY
               FLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
               FOR THE 03/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Wed, 01 Nov 2023 11:59:53 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011159
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin was near normal in
    October with the formation of two named storms, with one of those
    becoming a hurricane (Tammy). One tropical depression also formed.
    In addition, Tropical Storms Philippe and Rina both completed their
    life cycle early in October. Based on a 30-year climatology
    (1991-2020), between 2-3 named storms typically develop in October,
    with one of them becoming a hurricane, and one a major hurricane.

    Philippe which formed in September affected portions of the northern
    Leeward Islands as a tropical storm early in the month. Tammy also
    affected portions of the Leeward Islands in October. Tammy made
    landfall as a hurricane on Barbuda during the evening of 21 October.
    Tropical Depression Twenty-One moved inland over Nicaragua a few
    days later bringing heavy rainfall with flash and urban flooding.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
    the basin so far in 2023 has been about 30 percent above average
    compared to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
    National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    -----------------------------------------------------------
    Unnamed STS 16-17 Jan 70*
    TS Arlene 1-3 Jun 40*
    TS Bret 19-24 Jun 70*
    TS Cindy 22-26 Jun 60*
    H Don 14-24 Jul 75
    TS Emily 20-21 Aug 50
    MH Franklin 20 Aug- 1 Sep 150
    TS Gert 19- 4 Sep 60
    TS Harold 21-23 Aug 50
    MH Idalia 26-31 Aug 130
    TS Jose 29 Aug- 1 Sep 60
    TS Katia 1- 4 Sep 60
    MH Lee 5-16 Sep 165
    H Margot 7-17 Sep 90
    H Nigel 15-22 Sep 100
    TS Ophelia 21-24 Sep 70
    TS Philippe 23 Sep- 6 Oct 50
    TS Rina 28 Sep- 1 Oct 50
    TS Sean 11-15 Oct 45
    H Tammy 18-29 Oct 105
    TD Twenty-One 23-24 Oct 30
    -----------------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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