2024 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Sat, 30 Nov 2024 23:31:37 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 302331
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
  
  This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
  the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the
  Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the
  off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
  conditions warrant.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Beven
  
  

• Thu, 12 Dec 2024 10:46:22 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 121046
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1215 UTC Thu Dec 12 2024
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1040 UTC.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over W Africa near 11N15W
  then extends southwestward to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from
  08N17W to 04N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
  within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 54W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in the 8-16 ft are
  ongoing over the E and SW Gulf after the passage of a cold front
  that exited the basin Wed evening. Gentle to moderate NE to E
  winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas.
  
  For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas
  greater than 12 ft over the E and SW Gulf will continue to
  diminish through this afternoon. However, strong high pressure
  building over the SE CONUS and its associated ridge will continue
  to support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft over
  the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Sun night.
  Afterward, moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin will
  further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Tue.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  The tail of a cold front over the SW N Atlantic waters has stalled
  over the NW Caribbean where it continues to generate scattered
  showers in the Belize and Honduras offshore waters. The stationary
  front that extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras is
  followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft,
  highest in the Yucatan Channel. Over the central basin, NE fresh
  to strong winds prevail along with moderate seas, except rough to
  9 ft offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate
  seas are ongoing elsewhere.
  
  For the forecast, strong high pressure building over the Gulf of
  Mexico and in the wake of a cold front over the SW N Atlantic
  waters will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and
  moderate to rough seas in the NW Caribbean and the Windward
  Passage through Sun morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds
  will further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon
  afternoon as the broad high pressure shift NE and then eastward to
  the north-central Atlantic waters. The high pressure will also
  support fresh to strong NE winds over the central and SW Caribbean
  through Sat morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds over the E
  Caribbean will diminish on Fri as a surface trough enters the
  region. Otherwise, the front will dissipate tonight.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A cold front extends from 31N74W SW to the northern Bahamas into
  central Cuba and stalls in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong
  northerly winds and rough seas behind the front continue to affect
  the Florida offshore waters, and the northern and central
  Bahamas. The remainder subtropical waters are under the influence
  of a broad ridge that continues to be disected by a surface trough
  that extends from 27N48W to 18N54W. The trough is generating
  scattered showers and tstms between 42W and 59W. Aside from the
  convection, a tighter pressure gradient against the ridge is
  supporting fresh NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft west of the
  trough axis and fresh to near gale force E to SE winds along with
  rough seas to 14 ft east of its axis to 40W. Gentle to moderate
  winds and seas are ongling elsewhere in the subtropical waters.
  Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the
  tropical waters E of 50W.
  
  For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will stall from 31N68W
  to the central Bahamas this evening and dissipate tonight into
  early Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas
  affecting the Florida offshore waters, and the northern and
  central Bahamas will prevail and expand in areal coverage through
  the weekend as strong high pressure building in the wake of the
  front will tighten the pressure gradient against an approaching
  surface trough from the east. Frequent gust to gale force winds
  will likely develop over the northern Bahamas offshore waters Sat
  through Sun. Winds will start to gradually weaken across the
  region Sun night into Mon.
  
  $$
  Ramos
  

• Mon, 02 Dec 2024 11:31:37 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

• Wed, 11 Dec 2024 18:13:23 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 111815
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   0115 PM EST WED 11 DECEMBER 2024
   SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
            VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z DECEMBER 2024
            WSPOD NUMBER.....24-011
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77
          A. 13/0000Z
          B. AF306 02WSC IOP01
          C. 12/1900Z
          D. 15 DROPSONDES APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA
             BOUNDED BY: 30.0N 125.0W, 30.0N 160.0W, 45.0N 125.0W,
             45.0N 160.0W AND THEN 5 BOXES OF BUOYS DROPPED AT
             APPROXIMATELY 115 NM INTERVALS BETWEEN 40.5N 150.0W AND
             41.0N 140.0W.
          E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/2030Z TO 13/0230Z,
             EXCEPT SFC TO 15,000 FT/ 12/2300Z TO 13/0100Z.
   
       2. A NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT ATMOSPHERIC-RIVERS MISSION REQUEST HAS
          BEEN RECEIVED FROM NCEP FOR THE 13/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME BUT
          CANNOT BE SUPPORTED.
   
       3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN
          ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE
          14/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
   
       4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN
          ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE
          15/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
   
   $$
   KAL/SEF/WJM
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Sun, 01 Dec 2024 03:00:40 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 010300
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1000 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity this November was above average in terms
  of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in
  the Atlantic basin. Three named storms formed during the month,
  including one (Rafael) that became a major hurricane. Based on a
  30-year climatology (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November
  once every year or two, and a hurricane forms once every two years.
  
  Rafael strengthened into a hurricane while passing near Jamaica and
  the Cayman Islands before making landfall in western Cuba as a
  category 3 hurricane. Elsewhere, Patty brought tropical storm
  conditions to portions of the Azores. Sara meandered near the coast
  of Honduras before making landfall as a tropical storm in Belize.
  
  Overall, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had above-normal
  activity in terms of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and
  major hurricanes. In 2024, there were 18 named storms that formed in
  the Atlantic basin, of which 11 became hurricanes and 5 strengthened
  into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson
  Hurricane Wind Scale). These numbers are greater than the long-term
  (1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major
  hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which
  measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and
  hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2024 was about 34 percent above
  the long-term (1991-2020) average.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the
  National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ------------------------------------------------------------------
  TS Alberto 19-20 Jun 50*
  MH Beryl 28 Jun-9 Jul 165
  TS Chris 30 Jun-1 Jul 45*
  H Debby 3-9 Aug 80
  H Ernesto 12-20 Aug 100
  H Francine 9-12 Sep 100
  TS Gordon 11-17 Sep 45
  MH Helene 24-27 Sep 140
  H Isaac 26-30 Sep 105
  TS Joyce 27 Sep-1 Oct 50
  MH Kirk 29 Sep-7 Oct 145
  H Leslie 2-12 Oct 105
  MH Milton 5-10 Oct 180
  TS Nadine 19-20 Oct 60
  H Oscar 19-22 Oct 85
  TS Patty 2-4 Nov 65
  MH Rafael 4-10 Nov 120
  TS Sara 14-18 Nov 50
  
  ------------------------------------------------------------------
  
  Dates are based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit