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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tue, 29 Nov 2022 17:35:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 291735
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  100 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Pasch
  

• Tue, 29 Nov 2022 17:57:30 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 291757
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1805 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1715 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
  early on Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds.
  Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed
  and early Wed night. As a result, seas will build to 8-10 ft in
  the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered showers and
  thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Winds
  and seas will diminish late Thu. For details on this Gale
  Warning, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
  National Hurricane Center at website
  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
  10N14W to 08N18W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that
  it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N36W to the mouth
  of the Amazon River near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
  is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-40W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A fairly weak pressure gradient exists across the Gulf of
  Mexico, resulting in mainly moderate E to SE winds. Winds
  occasionally reach fresh speeds in the NW Gulf. Seas are mainly
  2 to 4 ft reaching 5 ft in the NW Gul, noted in buoy
  observations. Elsewhere, isolated showers and thunderstorms seen
  in satellite imagery continue in the NE Gulf .
  
  For the forecast, weak high pressure over the area will shift
  eastward through late tonight as a strong cold front approaches
  eastern Texas. The front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed
  followed by strong to near gale force north to northeast winds.
  Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed
  and early Wed night. This front will reach from northern Florida
  to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night, and from central Florida
  to near Veracruz, Mexico early Thu. The front will reach the
  southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida late Thu and become
  stationary through late Fri while it weakens. Strong high
  pressure behind the front will shift eastward through Fri night
  allowing for winds to become easterly and moderate to fresh in
  speeds across most of the basin. Scattered showers and
  thunderstorms will precede the front.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the
  southwestern Caribbean, more concentrated near and along the
  coast of Panama. Generally tranquil weather conditions prevail
  elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of
  the Caribbean and lower pressure over northern South America is
  maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and
  eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are
  across most of the Caribbean 4-7 ft. Seas up to 5 ft are noted
  within the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes
  are in the northwestern Caribbean, except for mainly fresh E
  winds in the Gulf of Honduras and near the adjacent Bay Islands.
  Seas in the areas described are 2-4 ft.
  
  For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate
  to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean
  Sea through Thu afternoon. Winds will pulse to strong speeds
  overnight tonight and Wed night south of Hispaniola and in the
  Windward Passage. Beginning on Thu evening, fresh to strong
  northeast winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, and in the
  Windward Passage, and continue south of Hispaniola. The fetch
  area will spread southwest over the western and central
  Caribbean sea through Sat night as strengthening high pressure
  shifts offshore the mid-Atlantic region. Long-period north swell
  propagating through the Tropical N Atlantic waters will slowly
  subside through Wed night.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  West of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 31N63W to 27N72W,
  then becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to
  the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are behind
  the boundary. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, with 3 ft seas near
  the Bahamas and Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers and a few
  thunderstorms moving east are seen within about 180 nm east of
  the front north of 26N. Elsewhere, 6 to 9 ft seas continue to
  reach the Leeward Islands, Virginia Islands, and Puerto Rico.
  
  Farther east, a trough is analyzed from 31N40W to 25N44W and to
  20N45W. A well-defined upper low is shown in water vapor imagery
  just east of the trough, supporting scattered moderate
  convection. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic remains under
  the dominance of an expansive subtropical ridge north of the
  area. Moderate trades are noted north of 20N and east of 40W
  near the ridge axis, where seas continue to be 11 to 13 ft.
  Moderate to fresh trades extend south of 20N, and south of 27N
  between the west coast of Africa and 40W. Seas of 10 to 15 ft
  are noted between 30W and 40W north of 20N, while seas of 9 to
  14 ft are between 40W to 55W.
  
  For the forecast, the aforementioned weak cold front will reach
  from 31N53W to 26N64W and become stationary to the central
  Bahamas Wed morning, then will dissipate by early Thu as broad
  surface troughing forms east of the forecast waters. A strong
  cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late Wed
  night, reach from near 31N67W to the NW Bahamas and to South
  Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri
  as strong high pressure builds across the area in its wake.
  Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas to
  around 15 ft are expected north and northeast of the Bahamas Fri
  and Fri night. These seas are forecast to build even further Sat
  and Sat night in a long-period north to northeast swell,
  possibly reaching as high as 20 ft in the far northeast part of
  the forecast waters on Sat night. The long-period swell will
  impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto
  Rico with rough seas thru Sat night leading to potentially
  hazardous marine conditions.
  
  $$
  Mora
  

• Tue, 29 Nov 2022 17:35:06 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
  No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 29 Nov 2022 22:02:55 GMT
• Tue, 29 Nov 2022 17:35:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 291735
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  100 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Pasch
  

• Tue, 29 Nov 2022 16:50:36 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 291650
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1150 AM EST TUE 29 NOVEMBER 2022
   SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
            VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z DECEMBER 2022
            TCPOD NUMBER.....22-187
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   NOTE: THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
   
   $$
   WJM
   
   NNNN
   

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Tue, 01 Nov 2022 12:07:10 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011207
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2022
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during October was
  near normal in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes.
  Three named storms formed in the basin during October with one
  becoming a hurricane. There were no major hurricanes in the
  Atlantic basin during October. Based on a 30-year climatology
  (1991-2020), two to three named storms typically form in October,
  with one of them becoming a hurricane. A major hurricane tends to
  form in October every one to two years.
  
  Julia affected the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia
  and made landfall in Nicaragua as a hurricane.
  
  In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
  strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in
  the basin so far in 2022 is somewhat below average. Through
  October, the ACE for 2022 is 73 percent of the long-term
  (1991-2020) mean value for this time of the year. The 11 named
  storms through the end of October is slightly below the long-term
  average of 13 to 14 named storms by the end of October.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2022&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
  TS Bonnie 1-2 Jul 50
  TS Colin 2-3 Jul 40
  H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
  H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
  MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
  TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
  MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
  TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
  TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
  TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
  H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
  TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
  TS Lisa 31- Oct 45
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit