Currently 461 Visitors Tracking The Tropics!

PLEASE DONATE TO SUPPORT

This site is AD FREE so I rely on donations to keep it running. PLEASE if you appreciate my website and the information I provide then consider a one time or recurring donation!! Donate

Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Larry – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Latest Surface Plot
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Tropical Tidbits Storm Page
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Floater
Floater
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
5 Day WPC Rainfall Forecast
07L
24 hour - 7 Day
Surface Wind Field Surface Wind Field Cumulative Wind History Cumulative Wind History
Windfield
Windfield
Microwave Imagery
Microwave Imagery
Top Analog Tracks Top Analog Tracks
WeatherNerds.org Floaters
Other Floater Sites:
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products

Intensity Forecasts Intensity Forecasts Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
EPS Ensemble Tracks
NHC Public Advisory on Larry
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 08:32:17 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Advisory Number 17 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Advisory Number 17

    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 230832
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Advisory Number 17
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
    900 AM GMT Thu Sep 23 2021

    ...ROSE IS NOW A REMNANT LOW...
    ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


    SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...25.2N 41.6W
    ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose
    was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 41.6 West. The
    post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph
    (17 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by
    a northeast or east motion on Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Rose is expected to dissipate in a couple of days.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on Rose. Additional information on this system can be found
    in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
    AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC Forecast Advisory on Larry
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 08:32:17 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSE Forecast/Advis... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSE Forecast/Advisory Number 17 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 41.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 41.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ROSE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 230832
    TCMAT2

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
    0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z
    AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 41.3W

    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 41.6W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON ROSE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
    IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


NHC Discussion on Larry
  • Thu, 23 Sep 2021 08:33:18 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Discussion Number 17 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Discussion Number 17

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 230833
    TCDAT2

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Discussion Number 17
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
    900 AM GMT Thu Sep 23 2021

    Rose has withered away. The cyclone has not produced organized deep
    convection for nearly 24 hours now, and therefore, the system no
    longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. The initial
    intensity of the remnant low is held at 30 kt based on the earlier
    ASCAT data.

    Rose is moving northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the north is
    expected by tonight, followed by a northeast to east motion as the
    shallow system moves in the low-level flow ahead of a deep-layer
    trough. The remnant low is expected to persist for a couple of
    days and could produce intermittent bursts of deep convection.
    However, west-northwesterly shear of 25-30 kt and dry mid-level air
    should prevent the convection from organizing.

    Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose can be found in
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
    AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/0900Z 25.2N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    24H 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    36H 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    48H 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Facebook Comments