Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Owen – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Owen

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 11:56:30 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A

558
WTNT33 KNHC 161156
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
32.7 North, longitude 78.2 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the northwest
or north-northwest is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a
gradual turn toward the north by Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and
then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the
coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or
subtropical storm. Weakening is forecast after the system moves
inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. Doppler radar data and surface observations
indicate strong winds are nearing the coast and will spread onshore
during the next few hours. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals,
North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76
km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (91 km/h). NOAA buoy 41037 offshore of
Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina recently reported a sustained
wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through late this afternoon or evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches
of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of
northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into
tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through
Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with
locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday.
This rainfall could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and
minor river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening
across the eastern Carolinas.

SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the
southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

NHC Forecast Advisory on Owen

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 08:44:57 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone EIGHT Forecast... - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone EIGHT Forecast/Advisory Number 3 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 POTENTIAL TROP Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W...Post-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 78.3W Intermediate PUBLIC Advisory...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
WTNT23 KNHC 160844
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024
0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 78.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 78.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NHC Discussion on Owen

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 08:46:07 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 3 - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 3

830
WTNT43 KNHC 160845
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The structure of the area of low pressure off the coast of South
Carolina has seemingly become less organized during the past few
hours. Proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the
low-level circulation is elongated from northeast to southwest, and
the center has not become well defined. The associated deep
convection has a generally linear orientation and has been
displaced farther to the north and east of the center due to strong
upper-level winds. Lastly, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft still measured a 2-3 degree Celsius temperature difference
at 850 mb from north to south, indicating that the frontal boundary
is diffuse but not totally gone. Therefore, the low is still not a
tropical or subtropical cyclone. That said, the plane measured a
peak wind of 54 kt at 6000 ft in the convection well northeast of
the center, suggesting that the current intensity is about 45 kt.

The low is drifting northwestward (325 degrees) at 3 kt, gradually
approaching the South Carolina coast. A faster motion toward the
northwest is expected to occur today as the low moves between
mid-level high pressure over the northeastern U.S. and a trough
over the southeastern U.S. The NHC track forecast shows the low
crossing the coast later this afternoon, which is shown by most of
the track models. The GFS remains the notable outlier since it
initialized the low too far to the northwest and consequently has
it crossing the coast around sunrise. After moving inland, the low
is expected to continue moving slowly northwestward and then
northward over the Carolinas through Wednesday. The new track
forecast has been nudged westward from the previous forecast,
although there is a modest amount of uncertainty given the
ill-defined nature of the center.

The chances of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical
cyclone may be starting to decrease given the current structure, and
since it only has another 12 hours or so before moving inland.
Most of the intensity guidance also suggests that the maximum winds
should gradually decrease as the low approaches the coast, although
tropical-storm-force winds are still expected to occur within the
warning areas today. Further weakening is forecast after the
system moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over the Carolinas
by late Wednesday.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through this evening.

2. The system will bring the potential for locally considerable
flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across southeast
North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There
is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of
the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday.

3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of
the southeastern U.S. coast over the next day or two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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