Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

Mindy – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Mindy

Sun, 09 Oct 2022 17:47:00 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A - Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A

013
WTNT33 KNHC 091746
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

...JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
COAST...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 86.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 86.2 West. Julia
is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, with a slightly slower
west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over
Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening.
Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the
Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical storm when
it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El
Salvador tonight and Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate near
the coast of Guatemala by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning
area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala
within the watch area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4
inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under
Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NHC Forecast Advisory on Mindy

Sun, 09 Oct 2022 14:42:31 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast/Advisory Nu... - Atlantic Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast/Advisory Number 13 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS Advisory... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA * PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS * COAST OF EL SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 85.4W Intermediate PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1800Z FUTURE FORECAST INFORMATION ON JULIA CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3...WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
WTNT23 KNHC 091442
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 85.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1800Z

FUTURE FORECAST INFORMATION ON JULIA CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3...WMO HEADER
WTPZ23 KNHC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NHC Discussion on Mindy

Sun, 09 Oct 2022 14:43:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13

000
WTNT43 KNHC 091442
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

Julia continues to move westward across Nicaragua with a
well-defined circulation and deep convection persisting near the
center. The terrain of southern and central Nicaragua is not as
rugged as areas farther north in Central America, and Julia is
probably only gradually weakening while it crosses land. Based on
a typical decay rate, and interpolating from the previous forecast,
Julia is now estimated to be a 60-kt tropical storm.

Strong ridging over the Gulf of Mexico continues to propel the
storm quickly westward (270 degrees) at about 13 kt, and that
motion should continue today, with Julia's center expected to move
off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by this evening. By tonight and
Monday, Julia is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and
move very close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras,
El Salvador, and Guatemala. The model trackers lose Julia in a day
or two and instead show a potential track farther offshore by
keying in on a broader circulation farther west that is associated
with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. However,
global model fields, in particular the GFS and ECWMF, show Julia's
smaller circulation more closely hugging the Pacific coast of
Central America, and the updated NHC track forecast more closely
follows that scenario.

Additional weakening is expected today while Julia continues moving
over land, but the cyclone should still be at tropical storm
strength when it moves offshore this evening. In keeping with the
GFS and ECMWF solutions, Julia's contracting circulation is
forecast to weaken further over the Pacific waters, coincident with
an increase in easterly shear. Based on the latest forecast, Julia
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and then
dissipate by Monday night while moving close to the coast of
Guatemala.

Regardless of Julia's track and future status as a tropical cyclone,
the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over
Central America and southern Mexico for several days, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain.

Since Julia's low-level circulation is expected to survive its
passage across Nicaragua, the cyclone will retain the same name
when it moves into the eastern Pacific basin. The intermediate
advisory at 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) will be issued under the same
Atlantic product headers as before. However, now that all coastal
watches and warnings are located along the Pacific coast of Central
America, product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with the next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC),
with the ATCF identifier changing from AL132022 to EP182022.

Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Nicaragua today and reaches the adjacent Pacific waters
this evening. Tropical storm warnings are in effect along the
Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account
for the likelihood of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas
later today through Monday. Tropical-force-winds are also possible
on Monday along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, where a tropical
storm watch is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America Sunday and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 12.4N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Facebook Comments

Copyright © 2013-2023 2023 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models - All Rights Reserved - SiteMap
DISCLAIMER: This website, TrackTheTropics.com, is for general information only and not to be used for any official forecast. This site is made to provide as many useful links and information possible for hurricane tracking and knowledge. Please first consult the NWS and NHC before making decisions on any kind of weather event. We are also not responsible for inaccurate maps or data on this page.

Powered by WordPress & Atahualpa

70 queries. 1.780 seconds.