NHC Important Links: NHC Discussion / Public Advisory / Forecast Advisory / Wind Probs / NWS Local Products / US Watch/Warning / Graphics / Storm Archive
Storm Tracking Important Links: Wind Analysis / Coastal Inundation Info / Tide Information / Surge Map / Surge Potential / Coastal Risk Map / Microwave Imagery / Advanced Dvorak ADT / GOES16 Satellite Storm Page / FSU Track Probability / NOAA Tracker / Albany Tracker / Navy NRL Page / HFIP Products / Tropical Atlantic Storm Page / NCAR Guidance Page / CyclonicWX Tracker / CIMSS Tracker / Tropical Tidbits Storm Page /UWM Tracker / SFWMD Models
Storm Tracking Important Links: Wind Analysis / Coastal Inundation Info / Tide Information / Surge Map / Surge Potential / Coastal Risk Map / Microwave Imagery / Advanced Dvorak ADT / GOES16 Satellite Storm Page / FSU Track Probability / NOAA Tracker / Albany Tracker / Navy NRL Page / HFIP Products / Tropical Atlantic Storm Page / NCAR Guidance Page / CyclonicWX Tracker / CIMSS Tracker / Tropical Tidbits Storm Page /UWM Tracker / SFWMD Models
WeatherNerds.org Floaters
Other Floater Sites:
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products
- Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:40:39 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 11 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 11
000
WTNT31 KNHC 240240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW BUT CONTINUES TO POSE A
RISK OF COASTAL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
Coastal flood warnings, as well as flood watches and flash flood
warnings, remain in effect for portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 77.6 West.
Ophelia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). The
center of Ophelia is expected to turn toward the north-northeast
and northeast, moving across eastern Virginia and the Delmarva
Peninsula through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
The post-tropical low is expected to become absorbed by a frontal
boundary Sunday night or early Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated within portions of
Chesapeake Bay and its tidal rivers but should gradually recede
overnight and into Sunday. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall through Sunday night:
Portions of the Mid-Atlantic from Virginia through New Jersey...1
to 3 inches with isolated higher totals up to 5 inches.
Across southeastern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches.
This rainfall may produce localized flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic region from
Virginia to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas
of heavier rainfall.
SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of
the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Ophelia. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 500 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
$$
Forecaster Berg
- Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:40:39 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA Forecast/Ad... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA Forecast/Advisory Number 11 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.2N 77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 77.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OPHELIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT21 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT21 KNHC 240240
TCMAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 77.6W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.2N 77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 77.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OPHELIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT21
KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
- Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:41:08 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 11 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 11
233
WTNT41 KNHC 240241
TCDAT1
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Ophelia appears to have lost its tropical characteristics. Surface
observations show a well-defined wind shift associated with a
frontal boundary extending across eastern Virginia, and the heaviest
precipitation is now well north of the center, oriented along and
to the north of the front. In addition, phase space diagrams based
on global model fields indicate that the system has entered the
asymmetric cold-core regime. Therefore, Ophelia is being declared a
post-tropical cyclone. Surface observations indicate that maximum
winds have decreased to 30 kt, mainly over the ocean well east of
the center.
With the last bit of convection having been sheared off to the
north, the center appears to have slowed down since the last
advisory, and the current estimate is northward at 360/7 kt. The
circulation is expected to turn northeastward on Sunday, but also
become more diffuse while it moves across eastern Virginia and the
Delmarva Peninsula. The NHC forecast now shows the low becoming
absorbed by the nearby frontal boundary by 36 hours. Maximum winds
are likely to remain around 30 kt until dissipation, mainly in
a band to the north of the front off the coast of Long Island.
This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center on Ophelia. Future information on Ophelia can be
found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 500 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
Key Messages:
1. Coastal flooding will continue along portions of Chesapeake Bay
and its tidal rivers through Sunday. Refer to statements from your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
2. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce localized flash and
urban flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states
from Virginia to New Jersey through Sunday.
3. Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the U.S. east
coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and
rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 37.1N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/1200Z 38.2N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Facebook Comments