97 Visitors Tracking The Tropics!

PLEASE DONATE TO SUPPORT

This site is AD FREE so I rely on donations to keep it running. PLEASE if you appreciate my website and the information I provide then consider a one time or recurring donation!!
Donate

Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2023 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Tracking Lisa – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Latest Surface Plot
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Tropical Tidbits Storm Page
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
Microwave Imagery
Microwave Imagery
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Floater
Floater
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Average Days For System To Reach U.S.Average Days For System To Reach U.S.
Windshear Around Storm
Windshear
Dry Air/ Water Vapor Around Storm
Dry Air
Water Temps around Storm
Water Temps
Past Track History Past Track History
CyclonicWX Storm Page
Top Analog Tracks Top Analog Tracks
WeatherNerds.org Floaters
Other Floater Sites:
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products

Intensity Forecasts Intensity Forecasts Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
EPS Ensemble Tracks
NHC Public Advisory on Lisa
  • Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:34:21 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Advisory Number 28 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Advisory Number 28

    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 220834
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Advisory Number 28
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
    900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023

    ...NIGEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...
    ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...


    SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...46.3N 32.6W
    ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel
    was located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 32.6 West. The
    post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 37 mph (59
    km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
    day or so. A slower northward or north-northwestward motion is
    expected this weekend.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
    days

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on this system.

    $$
    Forecaster Kelly

NHC Forecast Advisory on Lisa
  • Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:33:53 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone NIGEL Forecast/Advi... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone NIGEL Forecast/Advisory Number 28 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 32.6W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 200SE 190SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 480SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 32.6W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.4N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 48.8N 27.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 200SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 260SE 200SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 56.4N 23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 32.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER KELLY

    147
    WTNT25 KNHC 220833
    TCMAT5

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023
    0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

    NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
    LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
    CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
    MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 32.6W AT 22/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
    50 KT....... 90NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
    34 KT.......180NE 200SE 190SW 110NW.
    12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 480SW 480NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 32.6W AT 22/0900Z
    AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.4N 34.3W

    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 48.8N 27.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.
    34 KT...180NE 240SE 200SW 110NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.
    34 KT...210NE 260SE 200SW 110NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 56.4N 23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
    34 KT...270NE 300SE 200SW 160NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 32.6W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

    $$
    FORECASTER KELLY



NHC Discussion on Lisa
  • Fri, 22 Sep 2023 08:34:51 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Discussion Number 28 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Discussion Number 28

    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 220834
    TCDAT5

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel Discussion Number 28
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023
    900 AM GMT Fri Sep 22 2023

    Nigel has completed its transition to an extra-tropical cyclone this
    morning. Convection from earlier has waned, and is well displaced
    from the exposed low-level center. Based on a blend of an earlier
    partial ASCAT pass and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
    estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this
    advisory.

    The system is encountering very strong vertical wind shear and ocean
    temperatures below 20 degrees Celsius. The system is forecast to
    continue to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. However,
    the system will remain a strong extra-tropical cyclone with an
    expanding wind field. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
    previous advisory and lies near the model consensus.

    Nigel continues to race northeastward at 32 kt. A northeastward
    motion is forecast to continue the next day or so, as it remains in
    the flow along the southern edge of a deep mid-latitude trough.
    Afterwards, Nigel should rotate around the eastern side of a large
    extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic, with the two
    extratropical systems merging in about 48 h. The model guidance
    remains in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies in the
    center of the guidance envelope.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 22/0900Z 46.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 22/1800Z 48.8N 27.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    24H 23/0600Z 53.0N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 23/1800Z 56.4N 23.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Kelly

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Facebook Comments