ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Laura as of 8-28-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.
NHC Important Links:
Discussion / NHC Public Advisory / NHC Forecast / Wind Probs / Archive
Important LOCAL Links:
NWS Lake Charles, Louisiana / NWS Houston/ Galveston / NWS New Orleans/ Baton Rouge / Archived Loops of Laura / Power Outages
Storm Tracking Important Links:
FSU Track Probability - NOAA Tracker - Albany Tracker - Navy NRL Page - HFIP Products - TropicalAtlantic Tracker - NCAR Guidance Page - CyclonicWX Tracker Products - CIMSS Tracker - TropicalTidbits Tracker - UWM Tracker - SFWMD Models
NRL Floater

Additional RAMMB Sat - Model Data - Wind Products
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16

Additional RAMMB Sat - Model Data - Wind Products
NOAA NESDIS Floaters


Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Peak Storm Surge Forecast
Peak Storm Surge Forecast
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation)
Additional Potential Storm Surge Map
Rainfall Forecast

Rainfall Forecast

5 Day WPC Rainfall Forecast

24 hour - 7 Day
Flash Flood Potential


Peak Storm Surge Forecast

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation)
Additional Potential Storm Surge Map
Rainfall Forecast

Rainfall Forecast

5 Day WPC Rainfall Forecast

24 hour - 7 Day
Flash Flood Potential

Lauras Current Wind Field
Current Radar and Wind Readings of Laura

Radar Loops Near Laura

Latest Laura Observations



Radar Loops Near Laura



Archived Loops of Laura
- Tue, 05 Oct 2021 08:34:19 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Advisory Number 51 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Advisory Number 51
000
WTNT33 KNHC 050834
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
900 AM GMT Tue Oct 05 2021
...SAM TRANSITIONS TO A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC BETWEEN NEWFOUNDLAND AND ICELAND...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.0N 39.4W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM SW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam
was located near latitude 51.0 North, longitude 39.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37
km/h), and this general motion should continue today with a further
decrease in forward speed. A slow east-northeastward motion is
forecast to begin by late today, and a northeastward motion is
expected Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during
the next few days, Sam is expected to remain a powerful
post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic today.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and gale-force winds extend outward up to 460 miles (740
km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and
southeastern Newfoundland through midweek. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Sam. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
- Tue, 05 Oct 2021 08:32:49 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone SAM Forecast/Adviso... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone SAM Forecast/Advisory Number 51 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC TUE OCT 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT.......240NE 270SE 400SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 780SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 39.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 52.1N 38.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 480SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 52.8N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 150SE 150SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 450SE 480SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.3N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 270SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 57.9N 24.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 230SE 190SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 61.8N 23.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...400NE 280SE 270SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 62.7N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...330NE 280SE 390SW 420NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 61.7N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 63.6N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N 39.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SAM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT23 KNHC 050832
TCMAT3
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
0900 UTC TUE OCT 05 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 270SE 400SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 780SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 39.5W
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 52.1N 38.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 480SW 330NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 52.8N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 150SE 150SW 70NW.
34 KT...300NE 450SE 480SW 300NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.3N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 57.9N 24.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 190SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 61.8N 23.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...400NE 280SE 270SW 420NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 62.7N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...330NE 280SE 390SW 420NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 61.7N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 63.6N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N 39.4W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON SAM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
- Tue, 05 Oct 2021 08:38:47 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Discussion Number 51 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Discussion Number 51
780
WTNT43 KNHC 050838
TCDAT3
Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
900 AM GMT Tue Oct 05 2021
Sam's low-level circulation center has become exposed on the south
side of an east-to-west oriented cloud band containing cloud tops
that have warmed to around -50 deg C. The cyclone's overall cloud
pattern in satellite imagery resembles that of an occluded
extratropical low pressure system, and surface analyses from the
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center indicate that Sam's inner-core is now
interacting with a frontal system. Furthermore, the system is
located over sea-surface temperatures of around 14 deg C. Although
the system likely still has a warm-core thermal structure in the
mid- and upper-levels of the troposphere based on earlier 04/2321Z
AMSU-A/-B data, the low-level circulation now is comprised of an
extensive field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds. Based on these
data, Sam has made the transition to an extratropical cyclone over
the far north Atlantic. The initial wind speed has been lowered to
70 kt based on a standard decay rate.
The initial motion estimate is northward or 010/20 kt.
Extratropical-Sam has been moving north-northeastward at 35 kt
since the previous advisory, but the latest global and regional
models are all in very good agreement that the system will slow
down significantly during the next 6-12 hours as it interacts with
an approaching baroclinic mid- to upper-level trough/low. By late
Tuesday, the post-tropical cyclone should turn east-northeastward,
and then make a counter-clockwise loop southwest of Iceland on
Wednesday. By Thursday, the large cyclone is expected to move
east-northeastward or eastward and pass very near the southern coast
of Iceland on days 4 and 5 as a weakening extratropical low pressure
system. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed simple- and
corrected-consensus track models.
Extratropical-Sam is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds for
the next 12-18 hours, followed by a slow weakening trend as the
cyclone loses its baroclinic forcing. However, Post-Tropical-Sam
is still expected to pass close to Iceland in the 96-120-h period as
an expansive low pressure system producing gale-force winds over a
very large area.
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Sam. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
Key Messages:
1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and
southeastern Newfoundland through midweek. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 51.0N 39.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 05/1800Z 52.1N 38.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/0600Z 52.8N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/1800Z 54.3N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0600Z 57.9N 24.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 07/1800Z 61.8N 23.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 62.7N 27.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 61.7N 26.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z 63.6N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Facebook Comments