Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Katia – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Katia

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 20:35:28 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Advisory Number 18 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Advisory Number 18

511
WTNT34 KNHC 272035
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HELENE STILL PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene
was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 85.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 17
mph (28 km/h). A slowdown in forward speed is expected, and the
system is forecast to stall over the Tennessee Valley late tonight
and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Over portions of the central and southern Appalachians,
Helene is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches leading to widespread total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12
inches, with isolated totals exceeding 20 inches. This rainfall will
result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, along with record level river flooding in many
instances. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep
terrain across the southern Appalachians. Elsewhere, 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall is expected across portions of the Ohio Valley through
Sunday evening.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon and
evening over southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Helene. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 1000 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO
header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC Forecast Advisory on Katia

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 20:34:58 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone HELENE Forecast/Adv... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone HELENE Forecast/Advisory Number 18 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 84.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.9N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.7N 87.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.5N 87.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.3N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 85.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT24 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP . $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

539
WTNT24 KNHC 272034
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024
2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 84.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.9N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.7N 87.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.5N 87.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.3N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 85.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NHC Discussion on Katia

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 20:35:58 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Discussion Number 18 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Discussion Number 18

367
WTNT44 KNHC 272035
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Helene has been producing catastrophic flooding over portions of
the southeast U.S. and southern Appalachians, and the associated
heavy rains are shifting westward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that
Helene has completed extratropical transition, and the initial
intensity is set at 30 kt.

The cyclone is moving to the north-northwest at 15 kt. A slowdown
is expected tonight, and the cyclone is forecast to stall over the
Tennessee Valley this weekend, likely resulting in continued and
prolonged rainfall.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on Helene. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 1000 PM CDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic, catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, including numerous major landslides, will continue across
portions of the southern Appalachians through this evening, followed
by gradual improvement tonight and into Saturday. Widespread
serious river flooding is ongoing, some of which will be major to
record breaking.

2. There is a possibility of long-duration power outages in
portions of the southeast U.S. If you use a generator, be sure it
is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and
garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.

3. Use caution after the system passes as deadly hazards remain
including downed power lines and flooded areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 37.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 28/0600Z 37.9N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 28/1800Z 37.7N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/0600Z 37.5N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/1800Z 37.3N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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