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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2024 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

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[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
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Tracking Jose – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Latest Surface Plot
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Tropical Tidbits Storm Page
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
Microwave Imagery
Microwave Imagery
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Floater
Floater
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Average Days For System To Reach U.S.Average Days For System To Reach U.S.
Windshear Around Storm
Windshear
Dry Air/ Water Vapor Around Storm
Water Temps
Past Track History Past Track History
Top Analog Tracks Top Analog Tracks
Surface Wind Field Surface Wind Field Cumulative Wind History Cumulative Wind History
WeatherNerds.org Floaters
Other Floater Sites:
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products

Intensity Forecasts Intensity Forecasts Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
EPS Ensemble Tracks
NHC Public Advisory on Jose
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2024 23:42:33 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 5A - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 5A

    588
    WTNT31 KNHC 182334
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
    700 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

    ...HEAVY RAINFALL, COASTAL FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
    THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


    SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.4N 92.8W
    ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
    ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
    Rio Grande
    * the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
    Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    For storm information specific to your area in the United
    States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
    monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
    forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
    outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
    your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
    22.4 North, longitude 92.8 West. The system is moving toward the
    north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
    and west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and
    on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of
    Mexico by Wednesday night.

    Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Some increase in strength is possible during the next 36
    hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm on
    Wednesday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

    The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds
    extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
    Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
    header WTNT41 KNHC.

    RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
    rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
    Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
    likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
    river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
    terrain across northeast Mexico.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
    National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
    graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

    STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
    the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
    by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
    reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
    areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

    Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
    Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
    Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
    Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
    the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
    accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
    depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
    and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
    specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
    National Weather Service forecast office.

    For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
    please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
    available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

    In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
    center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
    winds.

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
    area by tonight or Wednesday.

    TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Wednesday across parts
    of Deep South into southeast Texas.

    SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
    Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thursday. These swells
    are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
    conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake


NHC Forecast Advisory on Jose
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2024 20:31:29 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE Forecast/A... - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE Forecast/Advisory Number 5 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024 2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.7W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.7W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 92.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.7N 93.9W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.3N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.3N 100.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 92.7W Intermediate PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 182031
    TCMAT1

    POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
    2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024

    NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
    LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
    CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
    MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

    POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.7W AT 18/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
    34 KT.......360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
    12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.7W AT 18/2100Z
    AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 92.6W

    FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.7N 93.9W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.3N 97.8W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.3N 100.2W...INLAND
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 92.7W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/0000Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG


NHC Discussion on Jose
  • Tue, 18 Jun 2024 20:32:32 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 5 - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 5

    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 182032
    TCDAT1

    Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
    400 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

    Air Force Reserve and scatterometer data show that the disturbance
    consists of a large northwest-to-southeast-oriented circulation
    with a 150-250-n mi wide area of light winds and a broad minimum in
    pressure. The scatterometer data also revealed that the strongest
    winds--30 to 35 kt--are located about 360 n mi north of the
    estimated center. With the continued lack of a well-defined center
    and little central convection, the system is still being designated
    as a potential tropical cyclone at this time.

    The system is moving generally northward, or 360/5 kt. A mid-level
    ridge over the eastern United States is forecast to build
    southwestward, forcing the disturbance to turn westward and
    accelerate toward the coast of Mexico tonight and on Wednesday.
    The model trackers appear to be too fast relative to the model
    fields themselves. As a result, the NHC official track forecast is
    slower than deterministic and consensus trackers, and brings the
    center of the system to the coast of Mexico in about 36 hours.
    This could still be a little fast since the global models have the
    center just offshore of Mexico at that time.

    Global model fields suggest that the circulation will gradually
    consolidate over the next 24 hours, and the center could be well
    defined enough by then to designate the system as a tropical
    cyclone. Even if that occurs, only modest intensification is
    forecast before the center reaches land due to the continued broad
    nature of the circulation. The most aggressive intensity models
    peak the intensity between 40-45 kt, and the NHC forecast is within
    that range.

    Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a
    large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
    tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
    the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
    chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
    of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
    northern side of the circulation.


    Key Messages:

    1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
    this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
    flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
    along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

    2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
    impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
    Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
    considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
    river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely
    in areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila and
    Nuevo Leon, including the city of Monterrey.

    3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
    Coast through midweek.

    4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight or
    Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass
    and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the
    Tropical Storm Warning area.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 18/2100Z 22.1N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
    12H 19/0600Z 22.7N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
    24H 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
    36H 20/0600Z 23.3N 97.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE MEXICO COAST
    48H 20/1800Z 23.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Berg

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic