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- Sun, 09 Oct 2022 17:47:00 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A - Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
013
WTNT33 KNHC 091746
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
...JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
COAST...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 86.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Nicaragua
* Pacific coast of Honduras
* Coast of El Salvador
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 86.2 West. Julia
is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, with a slightly slower
west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over
Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening.
Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the
Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical storm when
it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El
Salvador tonight and Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate near
the coast of Guatemala by Monday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning
area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala
within the watch area on Monday.
RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:
Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4
inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.
SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under
Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC.
$$
Forecaster Berg
- Sun, 09 Oct 2022 14:42:31 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast/Advisory Nu... - Atlantic Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast/Advisory Number 13 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS Advisory... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA * PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS * COAST OF EL SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 85.4W Intermediate PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1800Z FUTURE FORECAST INFORMATION ON JULIA CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3...WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT23 KNHC 091442
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF HONDURAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
* COAST OF EL SALVADOR
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 84.7W
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 85.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1800Z
FUTURE FORECAST INFORMATION ON JULIA CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3...WMO HEADER
WTPZ23 KNHC.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
- Sun, 09 Oct 2022 14:43:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13
000
WTNT43 KNHC 091442
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
Julia continues to move westward across Nicaragua with a
well-defined circulation and deep convection persisting near the
center. The terrain of southern and central Nicaragua is not as
rugged as areas farther north in Central America, and Julia is
probably only gradually weakening while it crosses land. Based on
a typical decay rate, and interpolating from the previous forecast,
Julia is now estimated to be a 60-kt tropical storm.
Strong ridging over the Gulf of Mexico continues to propel the
storm quickly westward (270 degrees) at about 13 kt, and that
motion should continue today, with Julia's center expected to move
off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by this evening. By tonight and
Monday, Julia is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and
move very close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras,
El Salvador, and Guatemala. The model trackers lose Julia in a day
or two and instead show a potential track farther offshore by
keying in on a broader circulation farther west that is associated
with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. However,
global model fields, in particular the GFS and ECWMF, show Julia's
smaller circulation more closely hugging the Pacific coast of
Central America, and the updated NHC track forecast more closely
follows that scenario.
Additional weakening is expected today while Julia continues moving
over land, but the cyclone should still be at tropical storm
strength when it moves offshore this evening. In keeping with the
GFS and ECMWF solutions, Julia's contracting circulation is
forecast to weaken further over the Pacific waters, coincident with
an increase in easterly shear. Based on the latest forecast, Julia
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and then
dissipate by Monday night while moving close to the coast of
Guatemala.
Regardless of Julia's track and future status as a tropical cyclone,
the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over
Central America and southern Mexico for several days, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain.
Since Julia's low-level circulation is expected to survive its
passage across Nicaragua, the cyclone will retain the same name
when it moves into the eastern Pacific basin. The intermediate
advisory at 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) will be issued under the same
Atlantic product headers as before. However, now that all coastal
watches and warnings are located along the Pacific coast of Central
America, product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with the next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC),
with the ATCF identifier changing from AL132022 to EP182022.
Key Messages:
1. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
across Nicaragua today and reaches the adjacent Pacific waters
this evening. Tropical storm warnings are in effect along the
Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account
for the likelihood of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas
later today through Monday. Tropical-force-winds are also possible
on Monday along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, where a tropical
storm watch is in effect.
2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
portions of Central America Sunday and Monday. Flash flooding is
anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 12.4N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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