Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone 5- 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Ernesto

Tue, 20 Aug 2024 14:36:26 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Advisory Number 36 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Advisory Number 36

000
WTNT35 KNHC 201436
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
300 PM GMT Tue Aug 20 2024

...ERNESTO BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.0N 44.7W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ernesto was located near latitude 49.0 North, longitude 44.7 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 37 mph
(59 km/h), and an even faster east-northeastward motion is expected
during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected tonight and on Wednesday, and
post-tropical Ernesto is forecast to merge with a frontal system and
dissipate by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by post-tropical Ernesto are affecting the
northeast coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada. The swells
and associated life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
should gradually subside during the next day or so. Please consult
products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water
if advised by lifeguards.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Ernesto. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

NHC Forecast Advisory on Ernesto

Tue, 20 Aug 2024 14:35:23 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ERNESTO Forecast/Ad... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ERNESTO Forecast/Advisory Number 36 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N 44.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 200SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 420SE 420SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N 44.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.3N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 210SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.8N 23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 240SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.0N 44.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ERNESTO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

139
WTNT25 KNHC 201435
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N 44.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 200SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 420SE 420SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.0N 44.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.3N 47.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 210SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.8N 23.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 240SE 160SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.0N 44.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ERNESTO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

NHC Discussion on Ernesto

Tue, 20 Aug 2024 14:37:55 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 36 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 36

000
WTNT45 KNHC 201437
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
300 PM GMT Tue Aug 20 2024

Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and cold sea-surface
temperatures have caused Ernesto to lose tropical characteristics
this morning. The cyclone lacks organized convection, and the
low-level center is becoming exposed as dry air wraps into the
circulation. Also, GFS phase diagrams indicate Ernesto no longer has
a warm-core structure. Thus, it appears the cyclone has completed
its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. Despite these structural
changes, nearby ship observations indicate Ernesto remains a
powerful cyclone with storm-force winds in its southern semicircle.
Based on these observations, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving quickly northeastward (055/32
kt) within the flow between a deep-layer trough over the north
Atlantic and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. An even
faster east-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday as
the cyclone remains embedded within strong steering currents. The
system is forecast to merge with a frontal system and become
extratropical by tonight, and the low should dissipate on Wednesday
over the northeastern Atlantic. Although some weakening is expected
during the next day or so, the cyclone will maintain a large wind
field to the south of its center.

This is the last NHC advisory on Ernesto. Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 49.0N 44.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0000Z 50.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 21/1200Z 52.8N 23.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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