NHC Important Links:
NHC Discussion / NHC Public Advisory / NHC Forecast / Wind Probs / Storm Archive
Important LOCAL Links:
NWS Lake Charles, Louisiana / NWS New Orleans/ Baton Rouge / Loops of Laura / Power Outages
Storm Tracking Important Links:
FSU Track Probability - NOAA Tracker - Albany Tracker - Navy NRL Page - HFIP Products - TropicalAtlantic Tracker - NCAR Guidance Page - CyclonicWX Tracker Products - CIMSS Tracker - TropicalTidbits Tracker - UWM Tracker - SFWMD Models
NHC Discussion / NHC Public Advisory / NHC Forecast / Wind Probs / Storm Archive
Important LOCAL Links:
NWS Lake Charles, Louisiana / NWS New Orleans/ Baton Rouge / Loops of Laura / Power Outages
Storm Tracking Important Links:
FSU Track Probability - NOAA Tracker - Albany Tracker - Navy NRL Page - HFIP Products - TropicalAtlantic Tracker - NCAR Guidance Page - CyclonicWX Tracker Products - CIMSS Tracker - TropicalTidbits Tracker - UWM Tracker - SFWMD Models
- Thu, 23 Sep 2021 08:32:17 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Advisory Number 17 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Advisory Number 17
000
WTNT32 KNHC 230832
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 23 2021
...ROSE IS NOW A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 41.6W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose
was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 41.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by
a northeast or east motion on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rose is expected to dissipate in a couple of days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Rose. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
- Thu, 23 Sep 2021 08:32:17 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSE Forecast/Advis... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSE Forecast/Advisory Number 17 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 41.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 41.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ROSE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT22 KNHC 230832
TCMAT2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0900 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 41.6W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 41.3W
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 41.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ROSE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
- Thu, 23 Sep 2021 08:33:18 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Discussion Number 17 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Discussion Number 17
000
WTNT42 KNHC 230833
TCDAT2
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 23 2021
Rose has withered away. The cyclone has not produced organized deep
convection for nearly 24 hours now, and therefore, the system no
longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity of the remnant low is held at 30 kt based on the earlier
ASCAT data.
Rose is moving northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the north is
expected by tonight, followed by a northeast to east motion as the
shallow system moves in the low-level flow ahead of a deep-layer
trough. The remnant low is expected to persist for a couple of
days and could produce intermittent bursts of deep convection.
However, west-northwesterly shear of 25-30 kt and dry mid-level air
should prevent the convection from organizing.
Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Rose can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 25.2N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 23/1800Z 26.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0600Z 27.8N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1800Z 28.7N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z 29.2N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Facebook Comments