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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2022 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Elsa – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Zoomed In Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
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Additional Projected Path Swath
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Tropical Storm Force Wind Probs Tropical Storm Force Wind Probs Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
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Windfield
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 Peak Storm Surge Forecast
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24 hour - 7 Day
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Radar Loops Nearby
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Intensity Forecasts Intensity Forecasts Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
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NHC Public Advisory on Elsa
  • Sun, 25 Sep 2022 08:39:45 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Number 8 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Number 8

    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 250839
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Number 8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
    800 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

    ...HERMINE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
    ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
    THROUGH MONDAY...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.6N 20.2W
    ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
    Hermine was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 20.2 West.
    The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11
    km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday
    followed by a slow turn toward the northwest early Monday and a
    turn to the west-northwest Monday evening.

    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Hermine is expected to dissipate in a couple of
    days.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75 to 150 mm)
    inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches
    (250 mm) across the Canary Islands through Monday. This rainfall may
    cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on Hermine. Additional information on Hermine can be
    found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO
    header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
    www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
    metarea2.

    $$
    Forecaster Roberts

NHC Forecast Advisory on Elsa
  • Sun, 25 Sep 2022 08:39:14 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast/Ad... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast/Advisory Number 8 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022 0900 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 20.2W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 20.2W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 20.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.3N 19.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N 20.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.9N 21.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 20.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 250839
    TCMAT5

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
    0900 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 20.2W AT 25/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 20.2W AT 25/0900Z
    AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 20.3W

    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.3N 19.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N 20.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.9N 21.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 20.2W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
    NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

    $$
    FORECASTER ROBERTS


NHC Discussion on Elsa
  • Sun, 25 Sep 2022 08:40:15 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Discussion Number 8 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Discussion Number 8

    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 250840
    TCDAT5

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Discussion Number 8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
    800 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

    Hermine's structure overnight has deteriorated further. While
    occasional intermittent bursts of deep convection are still
    occurring to the north of the elongated surface circulation, this
    convection lacks organization. The system no longer meets the
    definition of a tropical cyclone and, therefore, is being declared
    a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on Hermine.

    Strong southwesterly shear greater than 40 kt and a high
    statically stable surrounding Saharan air mass should prevent the
    regeneration of organized convection during the next several days.
    The global models and the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance
    agree that the remnant low will open up into a trough of low
    pressure Tuesday, and the official forecast follows suit.

    The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/6 kt. This
    general motion is expected to continue today while the cyclone
    moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge.
    Beyond Monday morning, the remnant low is forecast to turn toward
    the northwest and west-northwest in response to the above mention
    ridge building westward over the extreme eastern tropical Atlantic.
    The NHC forecast track is based on the various consensus aids and
    is similar to the previous advisory.

    Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
    Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and
    available on the web at
    www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
    metarea2.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 25/0900Z 23.6N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    12H 25/1800Z 24.3N 19.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    24H 26/0600Z 24.6N 20.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    36H 26/1800Z 24.9N 21.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Roberts

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

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