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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season had a record breaking 30 named storms this season, 13 developed into hurricanes, and six further intensified into major hurricanes!!!!! WHAT A SEASON #2020!!!!
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Elsa – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
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NHC Public Advisory on Elsa
  • Fri, 09 Jul 2021 20:42:12 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39

    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 092042
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
    500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021

    ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN
    DISCONTINUED...
    ...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
    US THIS EVENING...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W
    ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
    ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S.
    coast have been discontinued.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    None.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa
    was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The
    post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56
    km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an
    increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the
    forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore
    the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The
    system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and
    Saturday.

    Surface observations during the past several hours indicate
    that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
    higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
    of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by
    Sunday afternoon.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
    on the web at
    www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

    WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New
    England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical
    cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of
    Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

    RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
    totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could
    result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor to
    moderate river flooding is also expected.

    For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
    please visit the following link:
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
    found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
    under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky

NHC Forecast Advisory on Elsa
  • Fri, 09 Jul 2021 20:38:38 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ELSA Forecast/Advis... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ELSA Forecast/Advisory Number 39 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS Advisory... ALL REMAINING TROPICAL Storm WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.0N 69.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 092038
    TCMAT5

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
    2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021

    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
    COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    NONE.

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
    34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
    12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 180SW 0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z
    AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 71.0W

    FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT... 50NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.0N 69.5W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
    FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


    $$
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY


NHC Discussion on Elsa
  • Fri, 09 Jul 2021 20:42:41 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number 39 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number 39

    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 092042
    TCDAT5

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number 39
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
    500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021

    Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa's deep
    convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that
    a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those
    reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC.
    Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were
    reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby
    waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains
    45 kt.

    Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with
    an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward
    motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains
    embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was
    made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates
    that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The
    GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open
    into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in
    the NHC forecast.

    It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of
    Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and
    again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT).
    Elsa's classification at the time the center crossed the coast will
    be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted
    that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or
    timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed
    from the cyclone's center.

    Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm
    warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory.
    Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
    Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
    header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


    Key Messages:

    1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy
    rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

    2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New
    England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical
    cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of
    Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 09/2100Z 43.0N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    24H 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

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