Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Delta – 2020 Hurricane Season

ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Delta as of 10-10-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.

NHC Important Links:
NHC Discussion / NHC Public Advisory / NHC Forecast / Wind Probs / Storm Archive
Important LOCAL Links:
NWS Lake Charles, Louisiana / NWS New Orleans/ Baton Rouge / Loops of Laura / Power Outages
Storm Tracking Important Links:
FSU Track Probability - NOAA Tracker - Albany Tracker - Navy NRL Page - HFIP Products - TropicalAtlantic Tracker - NCAR Guidance Page - CyclonicWX Tracker Products - CIMSS Tracker - TropicalTidbits Tracker - UWM Tracker - SFWMD Models

NHC Public Advisory on Delta

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 11:54:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 13A - Atlantic Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 13A

000
WTNT31 KNHC 221154
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

...OSCAR CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 74.7 West. Oscar is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, then move away from the
Bahamas tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the day today. Oscar is
expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight or early
Wednesday, and then be absorbed by another low pressure area by
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts
around 8 inches, are expected through today. This rainfall could
cause localized flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NHC Forecast Advisory on Delta

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:31:52 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm OSCAR Forecast/Advisory Nu... - Atlantic Tropical Storm OSCAR Forecast/Advisory Number 13 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.8W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.8W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.8N 73.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.7N 71.7W...Post-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 74.8W Intermediate PUBLIC Advisory...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT21 KNHC 220831
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.8N 73.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.7N 71.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NHC Discussion on Delta

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:33:21 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 13 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 13

588
WTNT41 KNHC 220833
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Oscar is at best barely a tropical storm at this time. While
convection associated with the system has increased since the last
advisory, most of it is occurring in clusters well away from the
center in the eastern semicircle, and there is only minimal
convection near the center. Also, while 850 mb flight-level winds
were as high as 45-50 kt during an earlier Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission, dropsonde and SFMR data suggests those
winds were having trouble mixing down to the surface. The system
will be maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm pending the next recon
flight and whether convection will increase further during the
upcoming diurnal maximum.

The global models are in good agreement that a developing mid- to
upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic will cause
baroclinic cyclogenesis near or north of Oscar during the next
24-48 h. The UKMET shows Oscar become the main focus for the
development and becoming a large extratropical low, while the GFS
develops a second low to the north of Oscar with Oscar becoming
absorbed into the new system. The ECMWF and Canadian models
forecast a blend of these scenarios, with the baroclinic low forming
close to Oscar. Given Oscar's organization and current trends in
satellite imagery, the intensity forecast leans towards the GFS
solution, with Oscar becoming a post-tropical low in less than 24 h
and then being absorbed by the new low in 36-48 h.

The initial motion is now 030/10 kt. Interaction with the above
mentioned trough should steer Oscar generally northeastward with an
increase in forward speed until it is absorbed by the new
baroclinic low. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
track.

Key Messages:

1. Through Tuesday, localized flash flooding will be possible across
the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands.
With rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has
already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 22.7N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 23.8N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 25.7N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Copyright © 2013-2024 2024 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models - All Rights Reserved - SiteMap
DISCLAIMER: This website, TrackTheTropics.com, is for general information only and not to be used for any official forecast. This site is made to provide as many useful links and information possible for hurricane tracking and knowledge. Please first consult the NWS and NHC before making decisions on any kind of weather event. We are also not responsible for inaccurate maps or data on this page.

Powered by WordPress & Atahualpa

59 queries. 1.706 seconds.