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- Sun, 17 Sep 2023 14:36:54 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Advisory Number 41 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Advisory Number 41
000
WTNT34 KNHC 171436
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023
...MARGOT NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 42.4W
ABOUT 885 MI...1430 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot
was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 42.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A clockwise turn resulting in a motion toward the east
is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next few
days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the Azores
for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
- Sun, 17 Sep 2023 14:36:28 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone MARGOT Forecast/Adv... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone MARGOT Forecast/Advisory Number 41 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 42.4W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 42.4W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.8N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.2N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.7N 34.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 37.2N 33.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 42.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
000
WTNT24 KNHC 171436
TCMAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 42.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 42.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.0W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.8N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.2N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.7N 34.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 37.2N 33.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 42.4W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
- Sun, 17 Sep 2023 14:37:24 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Discussion Number 41 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Discussion Number 41
785
WTNT44 KNHC 171437
TCDAT4
Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023
Margot has lacked organized deep convection since around 00 UTC and
is no longer a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last NHC
advisory.
The latest Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is the basis
for the 35 kt initial intensity. Regeneration in the short term is
not expected due to high wind shear and dry surrounding air. With no
deep convection, the cyclone's winds should gradually decrease over
the next day or so. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn
slowly northward today and tonight, and then turn eastward by
Tuesday in the wake of Post-Tropical Lee, which will be passing well
to the north. While Margot's maximum winds could fluctuate slightly
during this time, it could also open into a trough as early as
Tuesday. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should meander west
of the Azores for a day or two until it ultimately dissipates
southeast of Nigel late this week.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 34.6N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 18/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 36.8N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 38.2N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 20/0000Z 37.7N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z 37.2N 33.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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