Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Bret – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Bret

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:39:19 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 4 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 4

000
WTNT33 KNHC 030839
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...LESLIE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 30.5W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 30.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster
west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

NHC Forecast Advisory on Bret

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:38:20 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm LESLIE Forecast/Advisory N... - Atlantic Tropical Storm LESLIE Forecast/Advisory Number 4 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 30.5W NEXT Advisory AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
WTNT23 KNHC 030838
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 30.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

NHC Discussion on Bret

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:40:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4

000
WTNT43 KNHC 030840
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

The satellite structure of Leslie has changed little since the
previous advisory, with small curved bands of convection primarily
on the eastern side of the storm. Upper-level outflow from distant
Hurricane Kirk continues to impinge on the western portion of the
circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in best
agreement with a T2.5/35-kt TAFB subjective Dvorak classification.

Leslie is moving slowly westward (265/5 kt) to the south of a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn to the
west-northwest and northwest, along with a slight increase in
forward speed, is forecast on Friday and over the weekend while the
storm moves around the western extent of the ridge. The models are
in reasonably good agreement on this scenario through the 5-day
forecast period. The updated NHC prediction is virtually unchanged
from the previous one, and lies near or in between the multi-model
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

As the distance between Kirk and slow-moving Leslie grows, the wind
shear over Leslie should diminish. This will provide a more
conducive environment for the storm to steadily strengthen within a
moist environment over warm waters. There is some spread in the
intensity guidance regarding how much strengthening will occur
during the next 2-3 days, with the HAFS-A/B models much higher than
the global models and statistical-dynamical aids. Given the storm's
current structure and slow forward speed, the NHC forecast remains
near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the IVCN simple
consensus aid. This forecast brings Leslie to hurricane strength by
early Saturday. As previously noted, the intensity of Leslie could
plateau thereafter if it follows a similar track to Kirk and
encounters the cool wake left behind by the hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 10.3N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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