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- Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:39:19 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 4 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 4
000
WTNT33 KNHC 030839
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024
...LESLIE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 30.5W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 30.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster
west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
- Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:38:20 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm LESLIE Forecast/Advisory N... - Atlantic Tropical Storm LESLIE Forecast/Advisory Number 4 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 30.5W NEXT Advisory AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
000
WTNT23 KNHC 030838
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 30.2W
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 30.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
- Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:40:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4
000
WTNT43 KNHC 030840
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024
The satellite structure of Leslie has changed little since the
previous advisory, with small curved bands of convection primarily
on the eastern side of the storm. Upper-level outflow from distant
Hurricane Kirk continues to impinge on the western portion of the
circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in best
agreement with a T2.5/35-kt TAFB subjective Dvorak classification.
Leslie is moving slowly westward (265/5 kt) to the south of a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn to the
west-northwest and northwest, along with a slight increase in
forward speed, is forecast on Friday and over the weekend while the
storm moves around the western extent of the ridge. The models are
in reasonably good agreement on this scenario through the 5-day
forecast period. The updated NHC prediction is virtually unchanged
from the previous one, and lies near or in between the multi-model
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.
As the distance between Kirk and slow-moving Leslie grows, the wind
shear over Leslie should diminish. This will provide a more
conducive environment for the storm to steadily strengthen within a
moist environment over warm waters. There is some spread in the
intensity guidance regarding how much strengthening will occur
during the next 2-3 days, with the HAFS-A/B models much higher than
the global models and statistical-dynamical aids. Given the storm's
current structure and slow forward speed, the NHC forecast remains
near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the IVCN simple
consensus aid. This forecast brings Leslie to hurricane strength by
early Saturday. As previously noted, the intensity of Leslie could
plateau thereafter if it follows a similar track to Kirk and
encounters the cool wake left behind by the hurricane.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 10.3N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Reinhart