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- Sat, 02 Jul 2022 11:53:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 19A - Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
000
WTNT32 KNHC 021153
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
...BONNIE WILL SOON MOVE OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA AND EMERGE OVER THE
PACIFIC...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 85.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.
Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 85.8 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
later today. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin
tonight or on Sunday and continue into Tuesday. On the forecast
track, Bonnie will emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean in the
next couple of hours. Bonnie will then move offshore of but
parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico today through Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges over
the eastern Pacific later this morning and should continue through
Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours.
STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua later this morning.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
- Sat, 02 Jul 2022 08:56:42 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast/Advisory N... - Atlantic Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast/Advisory Number 19 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS Advisory... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA * CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 85.1W Intermediate PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1200Z FUTURE INFORMATION ON BONNIE CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4...WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC. $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
000
WTNT22 KNHC 020856
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
6 TO 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 84.5W
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 85.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1200Z
FUTURE INFORMATION ON BONNIE CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4...WMO HEADER
WTPZ24 KNHC.
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
- Sat, 02 Jul 2022 08:58:42 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 19 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 19
000
WTNT42 KNHC 020858
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
Overall, Bonnie's structure is holding together quite well as the
storm moves across Central America. While the coldest cloud tops
near the center have warmed somewhat, radar from the Nicaraguan
Weather Service in Las Nubes shows a healthy reflectivity structure.
In fact, after the last center fix the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft made indicated a formative eyewall was developing
with Bonnie, a similar signature is now also currently observed with
Bonnie over Lake Nicaragua. Assuming there has been some weakening
of the wind field since Bonnie began moving over land, the
intensity is being reduced to an uncertain 35 kt for this advisory.
Bonnie was moving just north of due west from the recon fixes last
night, and the initial motion has been maintained at 275/14 kt. A
strong deep-layer ridge poleward of Bonnie should continue to steer
the cyclone west to west-northwestward for the majority of the
forecast period after it moves offshore. This track continues to
take Bonnie roughly parallel to the southern coast of Central
America and Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement
this cycle, and only slight changes to the forecast track were made,
mostly a somewhat faster motion at the end of the forecast period.
While the relatively small size of the tropical cyclone is currently
forecast to keep the highest winds offshore, interests in coastal El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to
monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track
adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of
this coastline.
So far Bonnie's structure does not appear to be that adversely
affected by its ongoing land interaction crossing Central America,
perhaps because it is traversing a relatively flat gap across Lake
Nicaragua, in between higher terrain to its north or south. However,
one thorn in the system's short-term intensity forecast is that sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) just offshore Nicaragua are not all that
warm, only between 26-27 C with a very shallow depth of these
marginally warm waters for the first 24 h or so. For this reason,
only slow intensification is forecasted early on, which is under the
majority of the guidance in this time frame. Afterwards, SSTs
markedly warm to above 28 C, and vertical wind shear is expected to
remain only light to moderate. Thus, a faster rate of
intensification is anticipated after 36 h, and Bonnie is still
forecast to become a hurricane in about three days. The latest
intensity forecast has been adjusted downward in the short-term, but
still peaks the storm as a 75-kt hurricane at the end of the
forecast period.
It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is
expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to
that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to
retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific
later today. The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued
under the same Atlantic header as before. Product headers will
change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete
advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 11.3N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER LAKE NICARAGUA
12H 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
24H 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
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