Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

Tropical Storm Bonnie – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Bonnie

Sat, 02 Jul 2022 11:53:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 19A - Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 19A

000
WTNT32 KNHC 021153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE WILL SOON MOVE OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA AND EMERGE OVER THE
PACIFIC...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 85.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 85.8 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
later today. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin
tonight or on Sunday and continue into Tuesday. On the forecast
track, Bonnie will emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean in the
next couple of hours. Bonnie will then move offshore of but
parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico today through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges over
the eastern Pacific later this morning and should continue through
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua later this morning.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

NHC Forecast Advisory on Bonnie

Sat, 02 Jul 2022 08:56:42 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast/Advisory N... - Atlantic Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast/Advisory Number 19 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS Advisory... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA * CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 85.1W Intermediate PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1200Z FUTURE INFORMATION ON BONNIE CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4...WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC. $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
WTNT22 KNHC 020856
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
6 TO 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 85.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1200Z

FUTURE INFORMATION ON BONNIE CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4...WMO HEADER
WTPZ24 KNHC.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

NHC Discussion on Bonnie

Sat, 02 Jul 2022 08:58:42 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 19 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 19

000
WTNT42 KNHC 020858
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Overall, Bonnie's structure is holding together quite well as the
storm moves across Central America. While the coldest cloud tops
near the center have warmed somewhat, radar from the Nicaraguan
Weather Service in Las Nubes shows a healthy reflectivity structure.
In fact, after the last center fix the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft made indicated a formative eyewall was developing
with Bonnie, a similar signature is now also currently observed with
Bonnie over Lake Nicaragua. Assuming there has been some weakening
of the wind field since Bonnie began moving over land, the
intensity is being reduced to an uncertain 35 kt for this advisory.

Bonnie was moving just north of due west from the recon fixes last
night, and the initial motion has been maintained at 275/14 kt. A
strong deep-layer ridge poleward of Bonnie should continue to steer
the cyclone west to west-northwestward for the majority of the
forecast period after it moves offshore. This track continues to
take Bonnie roughly parallel to the southern coast of Central
America and Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement
this cycle, and only slight changes to the forecast track were made,
mostly a somewhat faster motion at the end of the forecast period.
While the relatively small size of the tropical cyclone is currently
forecast to keep the highest winds offshore, interests in coastal El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to
monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track
adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of
this coastline.

So far Bonnie's structure does not appear to be that adversely
affected by its ongoing land interaction crossing Central America,
perhaps because it is traversing a relatively flat gap across Lake
Nicaragua, in between higher terrain to its north or south. However,
one thorn in the system's short-term intensity forecast is that sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) just offshore Nicaragua are not all that
warm, only between 26-27 C with a very shallow depth of these
marginally warm waters for the first 24 h or so. For this reason,
only slow intensification is forecasted early on, which is under the
majority of the guidance in this time frame. Afterwards, SSTs
markedly warm to above 28 C, and vertical wind shear is expected to
remain only light to moderate. Thus, a faster rate of
intensification is anticipated after 36 h, and Bonnie is still
forecast to become a hurricane in about three days. The latest
intensity forecast has been adjusted downward in the short-term, but
still peaks the storm as a 75-kt hurricane at the end of the
forecast period.

It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is
expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to
that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to
retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific
later today. The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued
under the same Atlantic header as before. Product headers will
change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete
advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 11.3N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER LAKE NICARAGUA
12H 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
24H 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

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