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- Fri, 11 Nov 2022 14:41:35 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 18 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 18
000
WTNT32 KNHC 111441
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 84.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicole
was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 84.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37
km/h). A faster north-northeast motion is expected this afternoon.
On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will continue to move
over the southern Appalachians during the next few hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Nicole is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today,
and the cyclone is likely to dissipate tonight. However, Nicole's
remnants will continue to move northeastward across the eastern
United States through Saturday morning.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:
Portions of the Southeast, southern and central Appalachians,
central and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to
4 inches with local maxima of 6 to 8 inches along the Blue Ridge.
Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 3 inches.
Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
Across portions of the Appalachians, upper Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and New England through Saturday, limited flooding
impacts will be possible.
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over parts of North
Carolina, and southern and eastern Virginia.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM EST, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32
KWNH, and on the web at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and hurricanes.gov.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
- Fri, 11 Nov 2022 14:40:36 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression NICOLE Forecast/Advis... - Atlantic Tropical Depression NICOLE Forecast/Advisory Number 18 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022 1500 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 84.3W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 420SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 84.3W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W...Post-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 84.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2...WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND HURRICANES.GOV. $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
000
WTNT22 KNHC 111440
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
1500 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 84.3W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 420SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 84.3W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 84.5W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 84.3W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2...WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
HURRICANES.GOV.
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
- Fri, 11 Nov 2022 14:42:33 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 18 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 18
000
WTNT42 KNHC 111442
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022
Satellite imagery, NWS radar data, and surface observations across
the southeastern U.S. indicate that Nicole still has a well-enough
defined circulation and sufficient convective organization to be
classified as a tropical depression. Surface observations reveal
that its central pressure has risen to near 1001 mb while its
strongest sustained winds are near 25 kt. Those winds are occuring
just offshore of Georgia and South Carolina. Although Nicole's winds
are decreasing, the threat of heavy rain which could lead to flash
flooding across portions of the Appalachians will continue today.
There is also a threat of tornadoes today, especially well to the
northeast of Nicole's center in eastern North Carolina and Virginia.
The depression accelerated northward earlier this morning and now
appears to be turning north-northeastward as previously forecast.
The surface circulation of Nicole will likely become poorly defined
and the system will become post-tropical as it continues to
accelerate north-northeastward this afternoon and tonight.
Since Nicole is a tropical depression with no tropical wind or storm
surge watches or warnings, this will be the last advisory issued by
the National Hurricane Center. Future advisories will be issued by
the Weather Prediction Center. Products from the Weather Prediction
Center will continue to populate on the NHC website as long as
Nicole remains a flooding threat to the U.S.
Key Messages:
1. Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible on
Friday across the southern and central Appalachians, particularly in
the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heavy rain and isolated flooding impacts
will extend north through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York and northern New England by Friday night into
Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 34.2N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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