2025 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

2019 Hurricane Season Forecasts

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed (mph) Storm Surge (ft)
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]

Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010

Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010

Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes

Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes

Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes

Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes

SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes

SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes

NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

2019 Hurricane Season Forecasts

The 2019 hurricane season begins June 1st!
Before the 2018 hurricane season started, Most forecasting groups called for a below-average season due to cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and the anticipated development of an El Niño. However, the anticipated El Niño failed to develop in time to suppress activity, and activity exceeded most predictions. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging Atlantic hurricane seasons, featuring 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, which caused a total of over $49.975 billion (2018 USD) in damages. The season officially began on June 1, 2018, and ended on November 30, 2018. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. The formation of Tropical Storm Alberto on May 25, marked the fourth consecutive year in which a storm developed before the official start of the season. The next storm, Beryl, became the first hurricane to form in the eastern Atlantic during the month of July since Bertha in 2008. Chris, upgraded to a hurricane on July 10, became the earliest second hurricane in a season since 2005. No hurricanes formed in the North Atlantic during the month of August, marking the first season since 2013, and the eighth season on record, to do so. On September 5, Florence became the first major hurricane of the season. On September 12, Joyce formed, making 2018 the first season since 2008 to feature four named storms active simultaneously (Florence, Helene, Isaac, and Joyce). On October 9, Michael became the second major hurricane of the season, and a day later, it became the third-most intense hurricane to make landfall on the United States in terms of pressure, behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Hurricane Camille of 1969. With the formation of Oscar on October 26, the season is the first on record to see seven storms that were subtropical at some point in their lifetimes (Alberto, Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Joyce, Leslie, and Oscar).

Below are the latest 2019 seasonal forecasts from all of the major organizations...

UPDATED AS OF 5-6-2019
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is an upcoming event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season will officially begin on June 1, 2019, and end on November 30, 2019. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year.
Colorado State University (CSU) is forecasting a NEAR AVERAGE Season with a total of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes which 2 of those will be major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80. The CSU outlook also calls for a 48% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in 2019, with a 28% chance for the East Coast and Florida Peninsula and a 28% chance for the Gulf Coast. The Caribbean is forecast to have a 39% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane. The forecast prepared by the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project, headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach is NEAR the 30 year average from 1981 - 2010. They are saying the current weak El Niño event appears likely to maintain intensity or perhaps even strengthen during the summer/fall.
Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is forecasting a slightly BELOW AVERAGE Season with a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes which 2 of those will be major hurricanes. ACE index at an 81. TSR’s main predictor is the forecasted July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic. This parameter influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) and vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region (MDR). At present TSR anticipates that the July-September trade wind speed in 2019 will be slightly stronger than normal - due mainly to a continuance of weak-to-moderate El Niño conditions - and that this will have a suppressing effect on North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2019.
The Weather Channel's (TWC) is forecasting a slightly ABOVE AVERAGE Season with a total of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes which 3 of those will be major hurricanes. The Weather Company's outlook is based on a number of factors, including sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño and other teleconnections, statistical computer forecast model guidance and past hurricane seasons exhibiting similar atmospheric conditions.
North Carolina State University (NCSU) is forecasting a slightly ABOVE AVERAGE Season. According to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, they are calling for a total of 13-16 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes which 2-3 of those will be major hurricanes. For the Gulf of Mexico, Xie’s data indicates the likelihood of 4-7 named storms forming in the region, with 1-2 of the storms becoming a hurricane. Historic averages for the Gulf are three named storms and one hurricane. Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin. Xie notes that this year, the potential for the ongoing weak El Niño to strengthen injected significant uncertainty into the forecast.
AccuWeather.com is forecasting an AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVEaverage Season with 12-14 named storms, 5-7 of which are projected to become hurricanes and 2-4 of which may become major hurricanes. They think this year will be not quite as active as last year BUT even an average or below-average season can produce a catastrophic storm. Forecasters are fond of pointing out that the “quiet” hurricane season of 1992 produced Hurricane Andrew.
WeatherBELL.com is forecasting in between a BELOW to ABOVE average Season with 10-15 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes which 0-2 of those becoming major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 60-110. WeatherBELL says if the El Niño isn't impressive we could see activity in line with last year, hence the relatively broad range.
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) is forecasting a slightly ABOVE AVERAGE Season with a total of 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes which 2 of those will be major hurricanes. In the last decade Florida based prediction organization GWO has consistently predicted the landfalls of major storms like Hurricane Harvey, Irma, Maria and Michael with a laser-like focus, seemingly outsmarting other storm prediction organizations. For the last 10 years former NOAA Meteorologist Professor David Dilley has issued the most accurate preseason and in-season hurricane predictions, averaging a stunning 87%+ accuracy rate. GWO mentions the upcoming hurricane season will likely be just as destructive and costly as the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons – with two major impact hurricanes likely this year.
Here are the official 2019 Names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy!!!
Note: There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and U.S. landfalls in any given season. One or more of the named storms forecast to develop this season could hit the U.S., or none at all. Therefore, residents of the coastal United States should prepare each year no matter the forecast.
A couple of classic examples of why you need to be prepared each year occurred in 1992 and 1983. The 1992 season produced only six named storms and one subtropical storm. However, one of those named storms was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane. In 1983 there were only four named storms, but one of them was Alicia. The Category 3 hurricane hit the Houston-Galveston area and caused almost as many direct fatalities there as Andrew did in South Florida.
In contrast, the 2010 season was active. There were 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic Basin. Despite the large number of storms that year, not a single hurricane and only one tropical storm made landfall in the United States.
In other words, a season can deliver many storms, but have little impact, or deliver few storms and have one or more hitting the U.S. coast with major impact. So ALWAYS BE ALERT AND PREPARED NO MATTER WHAT THE FORECAST IS! You can rely on Track The Tropics EVERY YEAR to bring you the latest and most accurate information on Hurricane Season 24/7... STAY TUNED!!
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