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- Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:47:21 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16
000
WTNT34 KNHC 150847
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 93.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7
km/h). A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is expected
today, and the center of the low should move along the coast
of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the low
is expected to dissipate tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
RAINFALL: The remnants of Karl are expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions
of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in
Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash
flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.
SURF: Swells generated by this system are expected to affect the
Mexican coastline through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on heavy
rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national
meteorological service.
$$
Forecaster Brown
- Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:46:50 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Forecast/Advis... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Forecast/Advisory Number 16 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 93.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KARL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
128
WTNT24 KNHC 150846
TCMAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 92.9W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 93.0W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KARL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
- Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:47:50 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16
679
WTNT44 KNHC 150847
TCDAT4
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022
Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level
humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl. Satellite data
and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not
produced any organized deep convection since around midday
yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning.
Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last
NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a
persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope
flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Within
this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has
been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight.
Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides
over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend.
The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend
of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models
indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today,
and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low
pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico.
The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a
southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs. This motion should bring the center of the
cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this
morning, and inland by later today.
This is the last NHC advisory on this system. For additional
information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products
issued by your national meteorological service.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could
produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and
Oaxaca states in Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 18.6N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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