Currently 447 Visitors Tracking The Tropics!

PLEASE DONATE TO SUPPORT

This site is AD FREE so I rely on donations to keep it running. PLEASE if you appreciate my website and the information I provide then consider a one time or recurring donation!! Donate

Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Sam – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Latest Surface Plot
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Tropical Tidbits Storm Page
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Floater
Floater
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Surface Wind Field Surface Wind Field Cumulative Wind History Cumulative Wind History
Windfield
Windfield
Microwave Imagery
Microwave Imagery
Top Analog Tracks Top Analog Tracks
WeatherNerds.org Floaters
Other Floater Sites:
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products

Intensity Forecasts Intensity Forecasts Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
EPS Ensemble Tracks
NHC Public Advisory on Sam
  • Tue, 05 Oct 2021 08:34:19 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Advisory Number 51 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Advisory Number 51

    000
    WTNT33 KNHC 050834
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Advisory Number 51
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
    900 AM GMT Tue Oct 05 2021

    ...SAM TRANSITIONS TO A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR
    NORTH ATLANTIC BETWEEN NEWFOUNDLAND AND ICELAND...
    ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


    SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...51.0N 39.4W
    ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
    ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM SW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam
    was located near latitude 51.0 North, longitude 39.4 West. The
    post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37
    km/h), and this general motion should continue today with a further
    decrease in forward speed. A slow east-northeastward motion is
    forecast to begin by late today, and a northeastward motion is
    expected Wednesday and Wednesday night.

    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during
    the next few days, Sam is expected to remain a powerful
    post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic today.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
    the center and gale-force winds extend outward up to 460 miles (740
    km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
    under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the
    web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

    SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
    Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and
    southeastern Newfoundland through midweek. These swells could
    cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
    consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on Sam. Additional information on this system can be found
    in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
    under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart

NHC Forecast Advisory on Sam
  • Tue, 05 Oct 2021 08:32:49 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone SAM Forecast/Adviso... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone SAM Forecast/Advisory Number 51 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC TUE OCT 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT.......240NE 270SE 400SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 780SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 39.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 52.1N 38.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 480SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 52.8N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 150SE 150SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 450SE 480SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.3N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 270SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 57.9N 24.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 230SE 190SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 61.8N 23.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...400NE 280SE 270SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 62.7N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...330NE 280SE 390SW 420NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 61.7N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 63.6N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N 39.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SAM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

    000
    WTNT23 KNHC 050832
    TCMAT3

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
    0900 UTC TUE OCT 05 2021

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
    64 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
    50 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 60NW.
    34 KT.......240NE 270SE 400SW 300NW.
    12 FT SEAS..240NE 420SE 780SW 390NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 39.4W AT 05/0900Z
    AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 39.5W

    FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 52.1N 38.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
    50 KT...100NE 110SE 110SW 100NW.
    34 KT...300NE 340SE 480SW 330NW.

    FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 52.8N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT...110NE 150SE 150SW 70NW.
    34 KT...300NE 450SE 480SW 300NW.

    FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.3N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW.
    34 KT...240NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.

    FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 57.9N 24.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 50NW.
    34 KT...200NE 230SE 190SW 150NW.

    FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 61.8N 23.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...400NE 280SE 270SW 420NW.

    FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 62.7N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...330NE 280SE 390SW 420NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 61.7N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 63.6N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N 39.4W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON SAM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
    IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
    UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART


NHC Discussion on Sam
  • Tue, 05 Oct 2021 08:38:47 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Discussion Number 51 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Discussion Number 51

    780
    WTNT43 KNHC 050838
    TCDAT3

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Sam Discussion Number 51
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
    900 AM GMT Tue Oct 05 2021

    Sam's low-level circulation center has become exposed on the south
    side of an east-to-west oriented cloud band containing cloud tops
    that have warmed to around -50 deg C. The cyclone's overall cloud
    pattern in satellite imagery resembles that of an occluded
    extratropical low pressure system, and surface analyses from the
    NOAA Ocean Prediction Center indicate that Sam's inner-core is now
    interacting with a frontal system. Furthermore, the system is
    located over sea-surface temperatures of around 14 deg C. Although
    the system likely still has a warm-core thermal structure in the
    mid- and upper-levels of the troposphere based on earlier 04/2321Z
    AMSU-A/-B data, the low-level circulation now is comprised of an
    extensive field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds. Based on these
    data, Sam has made the transition to an extratropical cyclone over
    the far north Atlantic. The initial wind speed has been lowered to
    70 kt based on a standard decay rate.

    The initial motion estimate is northward or 010/20 kt.
    Extratropical-Sam has been moving north-northeastward at 35 kt
    since the previous advisory, but the latest global and regional
    models are all in very good agreement that the system will slow
    down significantly during the next 6-12 hours as it interacts with
    an approaching baroclinic mid- to upper-level trough/low. By late
    Tuesday, the post-tropical cyclone should turn east-northeastward,
    and then make a counter-clockwise loop southwest of Iceland on
    Wednesday. By Thursday, the large cyclone is expected to move
    east-northeastward or eastward and pass very near the southern coast
    of Iceland on days 4 and 5 as a weakening extratropical low pressure
    system. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
    advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed simple- and
    corrected-consensus track models.

    Extratropical-Sam is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds for
    the next 12-18 hours, followed by a slow weakening trend as the
    cyclone loses its baroclinic forcing. However, Post-Tropical-Sam
    is still expected to pass close to Iceland in the 96-120-h period as
    an expansive low pressure system producing gale-force winds over a
    very large area.

    This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
    Sam. Additional information on this system can be found in High
    Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
    header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

    Key Messages:

    1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
    Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and
    southeastern Newfoundland through midweek. These swells
    could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
    Please consult products from your local weather office.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 05/0900Z 51.0N 39.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    12H 05/1800Z 52.1N 38.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    24H 06/0600Z 52.8N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 06/1800Z 54.3N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 07/0600Z 57.9N 24.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    60H 07/1800Z 61.8N 23.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 08/0600Z 62.7N 27.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 09/0600Z 61.7N 26.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 10/0600Z 63.6N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart


2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Facebook Comments