NHC Important Links: NHC Discussion / Public Advisory / Forecast Advisory / Wind Probs / Graphics / Storm Archive
Storm Tracking Important Links: Wind Analysis / Coastal Inundation Info / Tide Information / Surge Map / Surge Potential / Coastal Risk Map / Microwave Imagery / Advanced Dvorak ADT / GOES16 Satellite Storm Page / FSU Track Probability / NOAA Tracker / Albany Tracker / Navy NRL Page / HFIP Products / Tropical Atlantic Storm Page / NCAR Guidance Page / CyclonicWX Tracker / CIMSS Tracker / Tropical Tidbits Storm Page /UWM Tracker / SFWMD Models
WeatherNerds.org Floaters
Other Floater Sites:
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products
- Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:35:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6
000
WTNT32 KNHC 022035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023
...ARLENE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 85.8 West. Arlene is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly
faster south-southeast motion is expected during the next day or
two.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Arlene is expected to weaken by tonight, and it is forecast
to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 6 inches are possible through Saturday across portions
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. The heavy rainfall
could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding
impacts.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
- Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:35:21 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm ARLENE Forecast/Advisory N... - Atlantic Tropical Storm ARLENE Forecast/Advisory Number 6 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023 2100 UTC FRI JUN 02 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL Cyclone FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 85.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 85.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 86.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.3N 85.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.0N 84.9W...Post-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.2N 83.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT22 KNHC 022035
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023
2100 UTC FRI JUN 02 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 85.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 85.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 86.0W
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.3N 85.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.0N 84.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.2N 83.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 85.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
- Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:36:22 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6
000
WTNT42 KNHC 022036
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023
Arlene has changed little during the last few hours. The low-level
center is still estimated to be near the southwest side of the main
area of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based
on the earlier Hurricane Hunter data and a Dvorak 2.5 classification
from TAFB. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a
relatively small region of about 60 n mi to the north of the center
in the area of strongest thunderstorms. Arlene is currently moving
to the south-southeast at about 5 kt and is being steered by a mid-
to upper-level trough that it is embedded within. This overall
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.
Although Arlene has strengthened a little today, the models are in
good agreement that increasing vertical wind shear and notably
drier air are expected to affect the cyclone beginning tonight.
These conditions should cause a weakening trend, and Arlene is
expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on
Sunday.
The main hazard expected from Arlene is the potential for heavy rain
over portions of south and central Florida through Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 26.4N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 25.3N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 24.0N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 23.2N 83.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Facebook Comments