Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

Larry – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Larry

Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:35:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6

000
WTNT32 KNHC 022035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

...ARLENE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 85.8 West. Arlene is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly
faster south-southeast motion is expected during the next day or
two.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Arlene is expected to weaken by tonight, and it is forecast
to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 6 inches are possible through Saturday across portions
of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. The heavy rainfall
could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding
impacts.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC Forecast Advisory on Larry

Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:35:21 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm ARLENE Forecast/Advisory N... - Atlantic Tropical Storm ARLENE Forecast/Advisory Number 6 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023 2100 UTC FRI JUN 02 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL Cyclone FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 85.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 85.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 86.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.3N 85.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.0N 84.9W...Post-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.2N 83.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
WTNT22 KNHC 022035
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022023
2100 UTC FRI JUN 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 85.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 85.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 86.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.3N 85.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.0N 84.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.2N 83.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 85.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NHC Discussion on Larry

Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:36:22 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6

000
WTNT42 KNHC 022036
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Arlene has changed little during the last few hours. The low-level
center is still estimated to be near the southwest side of the main
area of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based
on the earlier Hurricane Hunter data and a Dvorak 2.5 classification
from TAFB. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a
relatively small region of about 60 n mi to the north of the center
in the area of strongest thunderstorms. Arlene is currently moving
to the south-southeast at about 5 kt and is being steered by a mid-
to upper-level trough that it is embedded within. This overall
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Although Arlene has strengthened a little today, the models are in
good agreement that increasing vertical wind shear and notably
drier air are expected to affect the cyclone beginning tonight.
These conditions should cause a weakening trend, and Arlene is
expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on
Sunday.

The main hazard expected from Arlene is the potential for heavy rain
over portions of south and central Florida through Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 26.4N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 25.3N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 24.0N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 23.2N 83.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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