Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

Larry – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Larry

Sat, 18 Nov 2023 02:38:35 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 6 - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 6

000
WTNT32 KNHC 180238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023
1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THIS WEEKEND...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY AS ALL WATCHES HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 76.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM NE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 20.0 North, longitude 76.5 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and a faster
northeastward motion is expected overnight. On the forecast track,
the disturbance is expected to move across southeastern Cuba during
the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance appears unlikely to become a tropical cyclone before
it merges with a frontal system later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: This disturbance is expected to produce additional total
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 14 inches across
portions of southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through
Sunday. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

The system is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall across Jamaica, the southeastern Bahamas, as well as the
Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding
in urban areas.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

NHC Forecast Advisory on Larry

Sat, 18 Nov 2023 02:37:04 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone TWENTY-TWO For... - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone TWENTY-TWO Forecast/Advisory Number 6 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 0300 UTC SAT NOV 18 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 77.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 76.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
WTNT22 KNHC 180236
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023
0300 UTC SAT NOV 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 76.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

NHC Discussion on Larry

Sat, 18 Nov 2023 02:39:35 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 6 - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 6

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180239
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023
1000 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

The broad disturbance has failed to become better organized today.
The associated convection remains displaced well to the east of the
surface trough axis by strong southwesterly shear. The earlier
aircraft reconnaissance data showed the disturbance was only
producing peak winds of 25-30 kt. Given its lack of a well-defined
surface center, poor convective organization, and the continued
hostile environmental conditions it faces, this system is no longer
expected to become a tropical cyclone. Additionally, the risk of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds on land has greatly diminished,
and all tropical storm watches have been discontinued. Therefore,
this will be the final NHC advisory on this system.

The remnants of this disturbance are expected to accelerate
northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough and merge with a frontal
system over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later this weekend.
Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected, there is high
confidence that heavy rainfall and flooding will remain a serious
threat across southeastern Cuba and Hispaniola through Sunday.
Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts
of 14 inches, are expected across portions of these areas, which is
likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rains from this disturbance will impact portions of
southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through Sunday. This
rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of higher terrain. Lighter amounts across Jamaica, the
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands may lead to
flash flooding in urban areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 20.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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