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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2022 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Tracking Karl – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Latest Surface Plot
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Tropical Tidbits Storm Page
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
Microwave Imagery
Microwave Imagery
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Floater
Floater
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Average Days For System To Reach U.S.Average Days For System To Reach U.S.
Windshear Around Storm
Windshear
Dry Air/ Water Vapor Around Storm
Dry Air
Water Temps around Storm
Water Temps
Past Track History Past Track History
CyclonicWX Storm Page
Top Analog Tracks Top Analog Tracks
WeatherNerds.org Floaters
Other Floater Sites:
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products

Intensity Forecasts Intensity Forecasts Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
EPS Ensemble Tracks
NHC Public Advisory on Karl
  • Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:47:21 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16

    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 150847
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
    400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

    ...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
    ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
    MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


    SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W
    ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
    ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
    was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 93.0 West. The
    post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7
    km/h). A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is expected
    today, and the center of the low should move along the coast
    of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today.

    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the low
    is expected to dissipate tonight.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for the system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
    WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

    RAINFALL: The remnants of Karl are expected to produce 2 to 5
    inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions
    of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in
    Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash
    flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.

    SURF: Swells generated by this system are expected to affect the
    Mexican coastline through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
    life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on this system. For additional information on heavy
    rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national
    meteorological service.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

NHC Forecast Advisory on Karl
  • Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:46:50 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Forecast/Advis... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone KARL Forecast/Advisory Number 16 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 93.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KARL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

    128
    WTNT24 KNHC 150846
    TCMAT4

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
    0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z
    AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 92.9W

    FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 93.0W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON KARL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL
    AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN



NHC Discussion on Karl
  • Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:47:50 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16

    679
    WTNT44 KNHC 150847
    TCDAT4

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
    400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

    Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level
    humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl. Satellite data
    and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not
    produced any organized deep convection since around midday
    yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning.
    Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last
    NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a
    persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
    well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope
    flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Within
    this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has
    been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight.
    Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides
    over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend.

    The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend
    of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models
    indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today,
    and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low
    pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico.

    The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a
    southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until
    dissipation occurs. This motion should bring the center of the
    cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this
    morning, and inland by later today.

    This is the last NHC advisory on this system. For additional
    information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products
    issued by your national meteorological service.

    Key Messages:

    1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could
    produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of
    higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and
    Oaxaca states in Mexico.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 15/0900Z 18.6N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Brown


2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

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