Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Julian – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Julian

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 14:38:56 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Francine Advisory Number 16 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Francine Advisory Number 16

000
WTNT31 KNHC 121438
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Francine Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...FRANCINE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 90.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Francine was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 90.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in
forward speed through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Francine will move over central and northern portions of
Mississippi this afternoon and tonight and move into northeastern
Arkansas by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
from the Jackson area is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next
few hours over portions of central Mississippi and western Alabama.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas,
Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized
amounts of 12 inches are possible over portions of Alabama, the
Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast
between eastern Louisiana and Alabama but will recede through this
afternoon.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across the Florida
Panhandle, southern and central Alabama, and southwest Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine should subside along the
northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

NHC Forecast Advisory on Julian

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 14:38:25 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression FRANCINE Forecast/Adv... - Atlantic Tropical Depression FRANCINE Forecast/Advisory Number 16 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 90.1W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 90.1W AT 12/1500Z...INLAND AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.1W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W...Post-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 90.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT21 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP . $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT21 KNHC 121438
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 90.1W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 90.1W AT 12/1500Z...INLAND
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.1W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 90.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NHC Discussion on Julian

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 14:50:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16...Corrected - Atlantic Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16...Corrected

000
WTNT41 KNHC 121450 CCA
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Corrected Frances to Francine in the first paragraph

Francine has continued to weaken this morning as the center moves
across central Mississippi. Surface observations indicate that the
central pressure has risen to near 996 mb, with winds of 25-30 kt
observed about 80 n mi east and northeast of the center. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt. The
surface observations and satellite imagery also suggest that
Francine is merging with a frontal zone, and it is expected to
become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. It should be
noted that while the forecast shows the surface cyclone dissipating
by 48 h, the remnants of the circulation above the surface will
persist beyond that time and continue the heavy rainfall threat.

The initial motion is now 360/12. A continued northward to
north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected before dissipation, bringing Francine or its remnants
across northern Mississippi into northeastern Arkansas.

This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Elevated water levels and high surf along portions of the
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts should subside today. Until this
occurs, residents in the affected area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.

2. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Southeast.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible through tonight
over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, expanding into
Georgia and middle Tennessee Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 32.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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