Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

Tracking Julia – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Julia

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:49:30 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 5 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 5

915
WTNT33 KNHC 291449
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

...RINA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 47.0W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 47.0 West. Rina is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
northwestward to west-northwestward motion, with an increase in
forward speed, is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart

NHC Forecast Advisory on Julia

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:49:02 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm RINA Forecast/Advisory Num... - Atlantic Tropical Storm RINA Forecast/Advisory Number 5 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL Cyclone FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 47.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 47.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 46.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.8N 47.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.4N 48.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.5N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.7N 52.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.0N 53.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.6N 55.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 55.0W...Post-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER A. REINHART/B. REINHART

667
WTNT23 KNHC 291448
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 47.0W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 47.0W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 46.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.8N 47.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.4N 48.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.5N 50.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.7N 52.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.0N 53.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.6N 55.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER A. REINHART/B. REINHART

NHC Discussion on Julia

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:50:28 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 5 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 5

000
WTNT43 KNHC 291450
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

Over the last few hours, Rina's center has become exposed with less
convective organization noted in the GOES-E satellite imagery. The
subjective satellite intensity estimates held steady at 45 kt,
while the objective estimates are lower around 35 to 40 kt. Based
on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set to 40 kt.

Rina's current motion remains nearly the same, moving
north-northwestward at 335/5 kt. Most of the track guidance shows
Rina moving generally northwestward through the weekend between
nearby Tropical Storm Philippe and a subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic. By early next week, Rina will start to make a turn
to the north within the flow between the subtropical ridge and an
upper-level trough moving across the western Atlantic. Most of the
model guidance shows a shift to the right of the previous forecast
track with a faster forward speed. The official NHC forecast track
reflects these trends and is adjusted closer to the latest consensus
aids. The one notable outlier is the GFS, which shows more of an
interaction between Rina and Philippe.

The exposed center of Rina indicates a sheared environment, and
strong deep-layer shear (partially associated with Philippe) is
forecast to persist during the next few days. The official NHC track
intensity is held steady through the next day or so, followed by
gradual weakening as supported by the latest intensity guidance. By
early next week, Rina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant
low as it begins that turn to the north and open up into a trough by
day 5. Some model guidance suggests dissipation could occur even
sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is based on this weakening
trend, in agreement with the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 19.4N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 19.8N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 20.4N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 21.5N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 22.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 24.0N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 25.6N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart

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