SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS
Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
DONATETracking Jerry – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
NHC Important Links: NHC Discussion / Public Advisory / Forecast Advisory / Wind Probs / NWS Local Products / US Watch/Warning / Graphics / Storm Archive
Storm Tracking Important Links:
Wind Analysis /
Coastal Inundation Info /
Tide Information /
Surge Map /
Surge Potential /
Coastal Risk Map /
Microwave Imagery /
Advanced Dvorak ADT /
GOES19 Satellite Storm Page /
FSU Track Probability /
Colorado State Tracker
/
Navy NRL Page
/
NHC Best Track
/
NOAA AOML Tracker
/
Tropical Atlantic
/
NCAR Guidance Page /
CyclonicWX
/
CIMSS Tracker
/ Tropical Tidbits
/ UWM Tracker
/ WeatherNerds
NHC Projected Path
NHC Key Messages
Zoomed In Watches and Warnings
Additional Projected Path Swath
Wave Height Forecast
Current Radar of Storm
Current Wind Field
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities
Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Other Floaters:WeatherNerds - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat -
RAMMB Model Data -
RAMMB Wind Products
Other Floaters:WeatherNerds - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat -
RAMMB Model Data -
RAMMB Wind Products
Latest Model Tracks
Latest Intensity Models
Surge Forecast
Rainfall Forecast
Flash Flood Potential
Sea Surface Temps Around Storm
Windshear Around Storm
Top Analog Tracks
746 Visitors Tracking The Tropics in the past hour!
SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS
Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...
Current IR Satellite
Current Wind Field
EURO Ensemble Tracks
GFS Ensemble Tracks
Microwave Imagery
LIVE Power Outage Map
SPC Watches and Warnings
Average Days For System To Reach U.S.
Past Track History
NHC Public Advisory
- Tue, 07 Oct 2025 20:33:12 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 2 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 2
000
WTNT35 KNHC 072033
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 46.4W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla. The government of France has
issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Barthelemy and St. Martin.
The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Sint Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda and Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
* Sint Maarten
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, and the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Jerry.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 46.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is
expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands
late Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a
hurricane in a day or so.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday, where Tropical
Storm Watches have been issued.
RAINFALL: On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the
Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash
flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_al5.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Forecast Advisory
- Tue, 07 Oct 2025 20:32:42 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast/Advisory Nu... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast/Advisory Number 2
000
WTNT25 KNHC 072032
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 46.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 46.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 45.4W
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.8N 49.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N 56.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N 59.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.8N 63.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.2N 61.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 46.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Discussion
- Tue, 07 Oct 2025 20:34:13 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 2 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 2
000
WTNT45 KNHC 072034
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025
Jerry continues to produce bands of deep convection around the
center, with the strongest winds likely still occurring on the north
and east sides of the circulation. The storm remain far from land,
roughly 900 miles east of the Windward Islands. All of the
satellite intensity estimates have increased, and most of them are
around 45 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is
increased to that value. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow.
Jerry continues to move quickly westward at about 20 kt on the
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. The models
insist that a turn to the west-northwest should occur soon with a
gradual reduction in forward speed expected over the next couple of
days as the storm nears the southwestern side of the ridge. This
motion should take the core of Jerry near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. The
best-performing models show the core of Jerry missing the northern
Leeward Islands, however, there are some GFS, ECMWF, and Google Deep
Mind ensemble members that pass very near or over the islands.
Therefore, interests there and in the Virgin Islands should monitor
the system's progress as details in the forward speed of the storm
and strength of the ridge will be the main factors determining how
close Jerry gets to the islands. By the weekend, a turn to the
north is forecast as the ridge weakens and shifts eastward due to a
large-scale trough amplifying over the western Atlantic. The NHC
track forecast remains on the fast side of the guidance through 72
hours, as models often have a slow bias in the tropical Atlantic.
This prediction is slightly left of the previous one, and in best
agreement with HCCA model.
The storm is forecast to continue to strengthen during the next
couple of days as it remains in conducive environmental conditions
of light winds aloft, abundant moisture, and over warm waters. Given
the favorable conditions, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model show
that there is about 20 percent chance of rapid intensification
occurring during the next day or two. The NHC intensity forecast
continues to show Jerry becoming a hurricane in a day or so, with
additional intensification expected after that. After the system
passes by the islands, most of the models show some increase in
shear, which should end the strengthening trend. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and in general
agreement with HCCA and IVCN.
Based on the forecast and the uncertainties, Tropical Storm
Watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward
Islands.
Key Messages:
1. Jerry is forecast to strength and could bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued.
2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on
Thursday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in
areas of higher terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 12.0N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 12.8N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.5N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.8N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 30.2N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
