2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

010 
WTNT42 KNHC 181443
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025
 
Gabrielle continues to struggle this morning as a pronounced swirl 
of low-level clouds is unable to muster up much in the way of deep 
convection near its center. Gabrielle's poor structure is due to 
ongoing westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of 
dry air entrainment that is infiltrating its circulation. The 
initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent scatterometer 
data of at least 40 kt, but this value remains above the latest 
satellite intensity estimates.
 
Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for a
couple more days, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its 
current intensity or weaken during that time.  It is even possible 
it could decay into a non-convective post-tropical low for a time.  
Assuming it survives, most guidance suggests that the storm will 
move into more conducive conditions that persist into early next 
week, allowing Gabrielle to organize and strengthen as it tracks 
north to northeastward. The NHC intensity forecast is near the low 
end of the guidance envelope for the first 3 days, but lies closer 
to the middle of the guidance at days 4 and 5.
 
Gabrielle's more erratic track over the past 24-48 hours has now 
smoothed out over the past 12-24 hours with a west-northwestward 
motion at 13 kt. This west-northwest to northwest motion should
persist over the next few days as the storm is steered primarily by 
a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the 
north or northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early 
next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge 
and a frontal system approaches from the west. The NHC track 
forecast was adjusted just west of track given the guidance's more 
westerly consensus of a weaker system inside the next 48 hours. 
Gabrielle's forward motion is a little faster as well, especially 
between hours 48-120 when it should accelerate thanks to increased 
steering flow on the western side of the Atlantic ridge.
 
Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in
Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 20.3N  51.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 21.1N  53.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 22.1N  55.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 23.2N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 24.4N  59.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 25.9N  60.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 27.7N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 31.4N  61.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 36.5N  56.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake

000
FONT12 KNHC 181443
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072025               
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD         
1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   7(30)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE

000
WTNT32 KNHC 181442
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025
 
...GABRIELLE STILL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 51.7W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 51.7 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple days, followed 
by a northwestward turn this weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast over the
weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake