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Tracking Gabrielle – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Tracking Gabrielle – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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  • Wed, 17 Sep 2025 14:57:05 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 2 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 2
    990
    WTNT32 KNHC 171457
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
    Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

    ...GABRIELLE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
    ...FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.5N 46.6W
    ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of poorly defined Tropical
    Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude
    46.6 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the north-northwest near 22
    mph (35 km/h). An erratic northwestward to west-northwestward
    motion at a reduced forward speed is anticipated across the
    tropical and subtropical central Atlantic during the next few days.

    Satellite-derived winds indicate that the maximum sustained winds
    are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
    strength is forecast during the next 48 hours but some gradual
    intensification is forecast over the weekend.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
    from the center, primarily in the eastern semicircle of the storm.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Taylor/Blake
NHC Forecast Advisory
  • Wed, 17 Sep 2025 14:56:36 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast/Advisor... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast/Advisory Number 2
    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 171456
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
    ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
    1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 46.6W AT 17/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 19 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
    34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
    4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 46.6W AT 17/1500Z
    AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 46.3W

    FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 48.5W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.8N 50.6W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.8N 52.6W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.7N 54.6W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 56.6W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.8W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
    34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 46.6W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

    $$
    FORECASTER TAYLOR/BLAKE
NHC Discussion
  • Wed, 17 Sep 2025 14:58:37 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 2 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 2
    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 171458
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
    Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

    Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the large system is
    not well-organized, with an elongated circulation
    oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast containing a few
    embedded swirls. The advisory center is a mean center of those
    swirls, with any associated convection well east of the position due
    to southwesterly shear. While it wouldn't appear so from
    conventional satellite data, a recent scatterometer pass indicates
    upwards of 40-kt winds present, generally northeast and southeast of
    the center of circulation. Although the system is at best
    marginally well defined, there is enough data to support an initial
    intensity of 40 kt, and the depression is named Gabrielle.

    Little strengthening is anticipated over the next 48 hours as
    Gabrielle faces an unfavorable shear environment from an
    upper-level trough and a possible center re-formation, and the
    forecast intensity remains nearly steady through Friday. By this
    weekend, a more conducive environment is anticipated, which should
    allow for gradual intensification. Gabrielle is forecast to become
    a hurricane by 96 hours. The NHC intensity forecast remains
    fairly similar to the previous forecast cycle, but it should be
    noted that there remains considerable spread in the solutions and
    overall forecast intensity confidence is low.

    Gabrielle is well away from land and about midway between the Cabo
    Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. The current estimated
    motion is north-northwestward, but this is highly uncertain as the
    center could be re-forming to the north. The system is forecast to
    move northwestward to west-northwestward due to the subtropical
    ridge for the next several days. While the forecast has been
    adjusted to the north from the previous one, this is almost
    exclusively due to the jump in the initial position. This is a
    highly uncertain forecast until a better defined center forms.
    Based on the recent trends, this system should pass well east and
    north of the Windward and Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda
    should monitor forecasts during the next several days.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 18/0000Z 19.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 18/1200Z 20.8N 50.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 19/1200Z 22.7N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
    60H 20/0000Z 23.5N 56.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
    96H 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 22/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Taylor/Blake
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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