Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

Fred – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Fred

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:40:39 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 11 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 11

000
WTNT31 KNHC 240240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW BUT CONTINUES TO POSE A
RISK OF COASTAL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Coastal flood warnings, as well as flood watches and flash flood
warnings, remain in effect for portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 77.6 West.
Ophelia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). The
center of Ophelia is expected to turn toward the north-northeast
and northeast, moving across eastern Virginia and the Delmarva
Peninsula through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
The post-tropical low is expected to become absorbed by a frontal
boundary Sunday night or early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated within portions of
Chesapeake Bay and its tidal rivers but should gradually recede
overnight and into Sunday. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall through Sunday night:

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic from Virginia through New Jersey...1
to 3 inches with isolated higher totals up to 5 inches.

Across southeastern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches.

This rainfall may produce localized flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic region from
Virginia to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas
of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of
the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Ophelia. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 500 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NHC Forecast Advisory on Fred

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:40:39 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA Forecast/Ad... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA Forecast/Advisory Number 11 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.2N 77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 77.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OPHELIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT21 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
WTNT21 KNHC 240240
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 77.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.2N 77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 77.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OPHELIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT21
KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NHC Discussion on Fred

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:41:08 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 11 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 11

233
WTNT41 KNHC 240241
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Ophelia appears to have lost its tropical characteristics. Surface
observations show a well-defined wind shift associated with a
frontal boundary extending across eastern Virginia, and the heaviest
precipitation is now well north of the center, oriented along and
to the north of the front. In addition, phase space diagrams based
on global model fields indicate that the system has entered the
asymmetric cold-core regime. Therefore, Ophelia is being declared a
post-tropical cyclone. Surface observations indicate that maximum
winds have decreased to 30 kt, mainly over the ocean well east of
the center.

With the last bit of convection having been sheared off to the
north, the center appears to have slowed down since the last
advisory, and the current estimate is northward at 360/7 kt. The
circulation is expected to turn northeastward on Sunday, but also
become more diffuse while it moves across eastern Virginia and the
Delmarva Peninsula. The NHC forecast now shows the low becoming
absorbed by the nearby frontal boundary by 36 hours. Maximum winds
are likely to remain around 30 kt until dissipation, mainly in
a band to the north of the front off the coast of Long Island.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center on Ophelia. Future information on Ophelia can be
found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 500 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Coastal flooding will continue along portions of Chesapeake Bay
and its tidal rivers through Sunday. Refer to statements from your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.

2. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce localized flash and
urban flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states
from Virginia to New Jersey through Sunday.

3. Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the U.S. east
coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and
rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 37.1N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/1200Z 38.2N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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