Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Fred – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Fred

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 20:43:01 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Alberto Advisory Number 13 - Atlantic Remnants Of Alberto Advisory Number 13

000
WTNT31 KNHC 202042
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Alberto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO HAS DISSIPATED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 102.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SW OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Alberto were located near
latitude 22.3 North, longitude 102.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Alberto will continue to diminish
across southern Texas tonight, with additional rainfall totals
generally 1 inch or less. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact
northeast Mexico today, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches
expected. Maximum rainfall totals around 20 inches are possible
across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo
Leon, and Tamaulipas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Texas coast
but will begin to subside through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly

NHC Forecast Advisory on Fred

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 20:42:31 +0000: Atlantic Remnants of ALBERTO Forecast/Advisory Num... - Atlantic Remnants of ALBERTO Forecast/Advisory Number 13 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024 2100 UTC THU JUN 20 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 102.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 102.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 100.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 102.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

000
WTNT21 KNHC 202042
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
2100 UTC THU JUN 20 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 102.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 102.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 100.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 102.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

NHC Discussion on Fred

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 20:43:56 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Alberto Discussion Number 13 - Atlantic Remnants Of Alberto Discussion Number 13

000
WTNT41 KNHC 202043
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Alberto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Satellite imagery depicts deep convection continues to produce heavy
rainfall over the higher terrain in Mexico. Satellite data and
limited surface observations depict that the circulation of Alberto
has dissipated. Thus, the system is no longer a tropical cyclone,
and this is the last advisory. The winds are set to 25 kt with this
advisory, based off average inland decay and surface observations.

The remnants of Alberto will continue to produce heavy rainfall
over northeastern Mexico with life-threatening flooding and
mudslides likely.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall associated with Alberto will continue to diminish
tonight across southern Texas. However, heavy rainfall will continue
to impact northeastern Mexico, and Life-threatening flooding and
mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the
Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including
the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria.

2. Water levels remain elevated along the Texas coast but will begin
to subside through tonight.

3. Swells generated by the remnants of Alberto will continue to
affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday.
These swells are producing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 22.3N 102.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

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