Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Emily – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Emily

Tue, 09 Jul 2024 02:35:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Beryl Advisory Number 42 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Beryl Advisory Number 42

000
WTNT32 KNHC 090234
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beryl Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...FLOODING RAINS AND THE RISK OF TORNADOES CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 94.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF TYLER TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beryl
was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 94.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a remnant
low on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Texas coast,
but should continue to recede overnight.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across
parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The tornado risk will
spread into southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky,
southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher
amounts, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma,
Arkansas and southern Missouri through Tuesday. Local flash and
urban flooding is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the
WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the
WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to gradually
decrease during the next day or so. Please consult products from
your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC Forecast Advisory on Emily

Tue, 09 Jul 2024 02:34:35 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression BERYL Forecast/Adviso... - Atlantic Tropical Depression BERYL Forecast/Advisory Number 42 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 94.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 94.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.9N 92.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 38.1N 89.3W...Post-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.9N 85.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.0N 82.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.8N 79.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 46.5N 75.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 94.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BERYL. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT22 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP . $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
WTNT22 KNHC 090234
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 94.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 94.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.9N 92.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 38.1N 89.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.9N 85.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.0N 82.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.8N 79.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 46.5N 75.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 94.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BERYL. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCMAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT22 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NHC Discussion on Emily

Tue, 09 Jul 2024 02:36:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 42 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 42

000
WTNT42 KNHC 090235
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Beryl continues to move farther inland, and the center is now near
the border of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Although the wind and
storm surge hazards have largely subsided, there continues to be a
significant threat of heavy rainfall and tornadoes along the
forecast track for the next day or so. Visit weather.gov for details
on these hazards.

Beryl is expected to move swiftly northeastward while weakening,
and it is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. This is the
last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Beryl. Future information on this system can be found in
discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
400 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KWNH, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Key Messages:

1. Local flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
northeast Texas, far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern
Missouri through Tuesday. Minor to moderate river flooding is also
possible.

2. Use caution after Beryl passes. Deadly hazards remain including
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise
caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of
water to avoid heat exhaustion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 32.8N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/1200Z 34.9N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0000Z 38.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 10/1200Z 40.9N 85.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 43.0N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 44.8N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 46.5N 75.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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