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- Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:47:35 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 25 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 25
665
WTNT32 KNHC 291447
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023
...PHILIPPE BARELY MOVING...
...EXPECTED TO DRIFT AROUND EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 55.3W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 55.3 West. Philippe is
moving very slowly toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday
night. A gradual turn toward the west and northwest is forecast
Sunday and Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
- Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:47:35 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm PHILIPPE Forecast/Advisory... - Atlantic Tropical Storm PHILIPPE Forecast/Advisory Number 25 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL Cyclone FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.3W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.3W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 55.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 56.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 56.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.4N 57.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.1N 57.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 55.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
666
WTNT22 KNHC 291447
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.3W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.3W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.3W
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 55.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 55.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 56.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 56.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.4N 57.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.1N 57.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 55.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
- Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:48:29 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 25 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 25
172
WTNT42 KNHC 291448
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023
There has been little change in Philippe's satellite appearance this
morning. The storm remains sheared with the low-level center
located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection.
The satellite intensity estimates continue to have a large spread,
ranging from 30 to 55 kt. ASCAT data should be available soon, and
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
Philippe this afternoon. Both of these datasets will provide a
better assessment of Philippe's intensity and structure.
Philippe has only moved roughly 40 miles over the past 24 hours, and
it has been generally drifting to the southwest during that time.
The slow motion over the past day or so is due to its interaction
with Tropical Storm Rina several hundred miles to its east. Since
these tropical cyclones are expected to continue to interact through
the weekend, Philippe is forecast to crawl southwestward during the
next 2 or 3 days. After that time, Rina is expected to separate
from Philippe as a mid-level ridge builds over the subtropical
central Atlantic. In response, Philippe should turn sharply
northward early next week. Although there remains a fair amount of
spread in the models, they are in considerably better agreement
today compared to the past couple of days. Overall, little change
was made to the previous track forecast, and it continues to lie
close to the various consensus models.
Although Philippe is still being affected by shear, the environment
over the next several days appears to become less hostile. Light
to moderate wind shear, increasing mid-level humidities around the
storm, and very warm SSTs should allow Philippe to gradually
strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward
again this cycle, but still lies on the lower end of the model
guidance. Additional upward revisions seem likely if the
guidance persists.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 18.3N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 18.1N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.4N 56.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 17.5N 56.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.4N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 26.1N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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