Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

Tracking Emily – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Emily

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:47:35 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 25 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 25

665
WTNT32 KNHC 291447
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

...PHILIPPE BARELY MOVING...
...EXPECTED TO DRIFT AROUND EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 55.3W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 55.3 West. Philippe is
moving very slowly toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday
night. A gradual turn toward the west and northwest is forecast
Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC Forecast Advisory on Emily

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:47:35 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm PHILIPPE Forecast/Advisory... - Atlantic Tropical Storm PHILIPPE Forecast/Advisory Number 25 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL Cyclone WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL Cyclone FORECAST/Advisory...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.3W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.3W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 55.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 56.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 56.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.4N 57.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.1N 57.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 55.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

666
WTNT22 KNHC 291447
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.3W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 55.3W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 55.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 55.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 56.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 56.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.4N 57.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 26.1N 57.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 55.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NHC Discussion on Emily

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:48:29 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 25 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 25

172
WTNT42 KNHC 291448
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2023

There has been little change in Philippe's satellite appearance this
morning. The storm remains sheared with the low-level center
located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection.
The satellite intensity estimates continue to have a large spread,
ranging from 30 to 55 kt. ASCAT data should be available soon, and
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
Philippe this afternoon. Both of these datasets will provide a
better assessment of Philippe's intensity and structure.

Philippe has only moved roughly 40 miles over the past 24 hours, and
it has been generally drifting to the southwest during that time.
The slow motion over the past day or so is due to its interaction
with Tropical Storm Rina several hundred miles to its east. Since
these tropical cyclones are expected to continue to interact through
the weekend, Philippe is forecast to crawl southwestward during the
next 2 or 3 days. After that time, Rina is expected to separate
from Philippe as a mid-level ridge builds over the subtropical
central Atlantic. In response, Philippe should turn sharply
northward early next week. Although there remains a fair amount of
spread in the models, they are in considerably better agreement
today compared to the past couple of days. Overall, little change
was made to the previous track forecast, and it continues to lie
close to the various consensus models.

Although Philippe is still being affected by shear, the environment
over the next several days appears to become less hostile. Light
to moderate wind shear, increasing mid-level humidities around the
storm, and very warm SSTs should allow Philippe to gradually
strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward
again this cycle, but still lies on the lower end of the model
guidance. Additional upward revisions seem likely if the
guidance persists.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 18.3N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 18.1N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.4N 56.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 17.5N 56.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.4N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 26.1N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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