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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2022 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

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Colin – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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NHC Public Advisory on Colin
  • Sun, 09 Oct 2022 17:47:00 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A - Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A

    013
    WTNT33 KNHC 091746
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Julia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
    100 PM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

    ...JULIA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NICARAGUA, APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
    COAST...
    ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
    CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...


    SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...12.4N 86.2W
    ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
    ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Pacific coast of Nicaragua
    * Pacific coast of Honduras
    * Coast of El Salvador

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Pacific coast of Guatemala

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
    next 24 hours.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
    36 hours.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
    located inland near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 86.2 West. Julia
    is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
    expected to continue today, with a slightly slower
    west-northwestward motion tonight and Monday. On the forecast
    track, the center of Julia is expected to continue moving over
    Nicaragua today and emerge off the Pacific coast by this evening.
    Julia is then expected to move very near to and parallel to the
    Pacific coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala tonight and
    Monday.

    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
    day or two, but Julia is still expected to be a tropical storm when
    it moves near the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El
    Salvador tonight and Monday. Julia is expected to dissipate near
    the coast of Guatemala by Monday night.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
    and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
    coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador within the warning
    area beginning this afternoon through Monday morning. Tropical
    storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Guatemala
    within the watch area on Monday.

    RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
    accumulations through Tuesday:

    Nicaragua and El Salvador...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
    Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
    in Mexico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
    San Andres, Providencia, and western Panama...an additional 2 to 4
    inches, isolated 12 inch storm total amounts.
    Southern Guatemala and Costa Rica...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12
    inches.

    This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
    across Central America today and Monday. Flash flooding is
    anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
    week.

    SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
    and San Andres, and the coast of Central America. These swells are
    likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
    Please consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

    The next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT will be issued under
    Eastern Pacific AWIPS header MIATCPEP3 and WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


NHC Forecast Advisory on Colin
  • Sun, 09 Oct 2022 14:42:31 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast/Advisory Nu... - Atlantic Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast/Advisory Number 13 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS Advisory... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA * PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS * COAST OF EL SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 85.4W Intermediate PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1800Z FUTURE FORECAST INFORMATION ON JULIA CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3...WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

    000
    WTNT23 KNHC 091442
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132022
    1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2022

    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND
    WARNINGS ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF HONDURAS.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
    * PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS
    * COAST OF EL SALVADOR

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
    36 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
    50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
    12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 0SW 0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 85.4W AT 09/1500Z
    AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 84.7W

    FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W...OVER WATER
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

    FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 85.4W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1800Z

    FUTURE FORECAST INFORMATION ON JULIA CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH
    PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
    BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3...WMO HEADER
    WTPZ23 KNHC.

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG


NHC Discussion on Colin
  • Sun, 09 Oct 2022 14:43:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13

    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 091442
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
    1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022

    Julia continues to move westward across Nicaragua with a
    well-defined circulation and deep convection persisting near the
    center. The terrain of southern and central Nicaragua is not as
    rugged as areas farther north in Central America, and Julia is
    probably only gradually weakening while it crosses land. Based on
    a typical decay rate, and interpolating from the previous forecast,
    Julia is now estimated to be a 60-kt tropical storm.

    Strong ridging over the Gulf of Mexico continues to propel the
    storm quickly westward (270 degrees) at about 13 kt, and that
    motion should continue today, with Julia's center expected to move
    off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua by this evening. By tonight and
    Monday, Julia is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and
    move very close to and parallel to the Pacific coasts of Honduras,
    El Salvador, and Guatemala. The model trackers lose Julia in a day
    or two and instead show a potential track farther offshore by
    keying in on a broader circulation farther west that is associated
    with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. However,
    global model fields, in particular the GFS and ECWMF, show Julia's
    smaller circulation more closely hugging the Pacific coast of
    Central America, and the updated NHC track forecast more closely
    follows that scenario.

    Additional weakening is expected today while Julia continues moving
    over land, but the cyclone should still be at tropical storm
    strength when it moves offshore this evening. In keeping with the
    GFS and ECMWF solutions, Julia's contracting circulation is
    forecast to weaken further over the Pacific waters, coincident with
    an increase in easterly shear. Based on the latest forecast, Julia
    is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday and then
    dissipate by Monday night while moving close to the coast of
    Guatemala.

    Regardless of Julia's track and future status as a tropical cyclone,
    the evolving weather pattern is likely to lead to heavy rains over
    Central America and southern Mexico for several days, which could
    cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
    areas of mountainous terrain.

    Since Julia's low-level circulation is expected to survive its
    passage across Nicaragua, the cyclone will retain the same name
    when it moves into the eastern Pacific basin. The intermediate
    advisory at 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) will be issued under the same
    Atlantic product headers as before. However, now that all coastal
    watches and warnings are located along the Pacific coast of Central
    America, product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers
    beginning with the next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC),
    with the ATCF identifier changing from AL132022 to EP182022.


    Key Messages:

    1. Julia is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while it moves
    across Nicaragua today and reaches the adjacent Pacific waters
    this evening. Tropical storm warnings are in effect along the
    Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador to account
    for the likelihood of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas
    later today through Monday. Tropical-force-winds are also possible
    on Monday along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, where a tropical
    storm watch is in effect.

    2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across
    portions of Central America Sunday and Monday. Flash flooding is
    anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this
    week.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 09/1500Z 12.4N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
    12H 10/0000Z 12.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
    24H 10/1200Z 13.2N 89.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 11/0000Z 14.0N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
    48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Berg

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

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