Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Beryl- 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Beryl

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:38:20 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 16 - Atlantic Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 16

000
WTNT32 KNHC 030838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

...KIRK FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 45.0W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1645 MI...2645 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 45.0 West. Kirk is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the
north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday,
Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast
of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NHC Forecast Advisory on Beryl

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:37:50 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane KIRK Forecast/Advisory Number 1... - Atlantic Hurricane KIRK Forecast/Advisory Number 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 45.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 45.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 150SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 280SE 220SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W...Post-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 140SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 260NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 45.0W NEXT Advisory AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
WTNT22 KNHC 030837
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 45.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 45.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 150SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 280SE 220SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 260NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NHC Discussion on Beryl

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:39:19 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 16 - Atlantic Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 16

000
WTNT42 KNHC 030839
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

After going through a period of rapid intensification, Kirk appears
to have stopped intensifying, at least temporarily, and there are
signs in satellite imagery that a dry slot has wrapped into the
circulation. Subjective final-T numbers have decreased slightly
from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is set at 105 kt, near
the CI numbers.

Kirk continues to move northwestward (315/9 kt), which should
continue for the next 36 hours while the hurricane moves along the
southwestern periphery of the subtropical high. After 36 hours,
Kirk is forecast to recurve between the high and a deep-layer trough
over the western/central Atlantic, eventually moving northeastward
by late Sunday or Monday. There is lower-than-normal spread among
the track guidance, including the global model ensembles, and
overall the new NHC track prediction is not changed much from the
previous advisory.

The hurricane is expected to move through a moist, low-shear
environment for the next 36 hours or so, with sea surface
temperatures actually warming by a degree or two up to 30 deg
Celsius. If Kirk can avoid further intrusions of dry air into the
eye, then the environment should be able to support strengthening to
category 4 strength. The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end
of the guidance during the short term. After 36 hours, increasing
deep-layer shear is likely to induce a gradual weakening trend, but
interaction with a baroclinic energy source should help the storm to
maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast
period. Based on thickness fields from the global models, Kirk is
now forecast to be extratropical by day 5.

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across
the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 20.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

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