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- Thu, 30 Oct 2025 23:52:03 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 38a - Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 38a
000
WTNT33 KNHC 302351
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025
...MELISSA BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD...
...CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 68.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...51 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to
completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the
island shortly after sunset today.
After Melissa becomes post-tropical, a brief period of heavy rain
and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland Friday night. For more information on impacts in
Canada, see the Canadian Hurricane Center website at
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. Melissa is
moving rapidly toward the northeast near 32 mph (51 km/h). An even
faster motion toward the northeast is expected into Saturday. A
gradual turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the
northwest of Bermuda tonight and pass south of the Avalon Peninsula
of Newfoundland Friday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely through evening.
However, Melissa is expected to weaken later tonight and Friday
and become a post-tropical low by Friday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). Automated stations on Bermuda have been reporting
wind gusts near 40 mph (65 km/h) during the past hour.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda shortly, with
hurricane conditions expected there tonight. Gusty winds are
possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday
night.
RAINFALL: For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring 1 to 2
inches of rain through tonight.
A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern Avalon
Peninsula of Newfoundland Friday night.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas
of onshore winds for Bermuda.
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Melissa
are also likely to reach the coast of the Northeastern United States
and Atlantic Canada Friday and persist into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
- Thu, 30 Oct 2025 20:37:59 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Forecast/Advisory Numbe... - Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Forecast/Advisory Number 38
000
WTNT23 KNHC 302037
TCMAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC THU OCT 30 2025
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 69.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 27 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 220SE 140SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 300SE 390SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 69.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 70.9W
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 250SE 190SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.4N 59.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...230NE 290SE 260SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.3N 52.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 35SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 350SE 290SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 360SE 270SW 170NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 53.8N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 340SE 260SW 190NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 55.1N 33.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 340SE 260SW 220NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 57.6N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 250SE 230SW 0NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 61.7N 15.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 69.7W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 31/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
- Thu, 30 Oct 2025 20:42:29 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 38 - Atlantic Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 38
000
WTNT43 KNHC 302042
TCDAT3
Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025
A recent AMSR2 microwave pass over Melissa indicates that the
center is tilted toward the northeast with height. The 89 GHz
(mid-upper level) image shows a center at least 30 n mi northeast of
where the 37 GHz (low-level) image has the center. This indicates
that strong west-southwesterly shear has begun. Dropsonde and
flight-level wind data from a NOAA reconnaissance flight show that
the surface winds are much weaker than the winds aloft, and that the
standard 90 percent reduction factor should not be used. Winds on
the east side of Melissa are quite strong between 1,500 ft and
10,000 ft, but drop off significantly near the surface. The
strongest flight-level wind was 113 kt. ASCAT showed vectors up to
70 kt around 15Z, which is consistent with lower-level
layer-averaged data from the dropsondes. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimates are T5.0/90 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial
intensity will be held at 90 kt, which is equivalent to 80 percent
of the maximum flight-level wind from the recent flight, but this
may be a bit generous.
Melissa is accelerating northeastward, or 35 degrees at 27 kt.
Melissa is likely to speed up to a forward speed of 35 kt or more
over the next 12 hours, and the fast motion should continue into
Saturday as Melissa moves within the flow between a mid-level trough
over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic. The guidance is in excellent agreement for the first 48
of the forecast, with the center expected to pass northwest of
Bermuda tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect. After
Melissa becomes extratropical in about 30 hours, the center should
pass very near the southeastern tip of the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland, where some impacts from wind, rain and surf are
possible. Little to no change has been made to the official track
forecast through 48 hours, which lies near the various consensus
aids.
Melissa is now moving into progressively stronger west-southwesterly
wind shear and will reach sea-surface temperatures below 26C this
evening. Therefore, Melissa should begin a weakening trend by early
Friday. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggests that
Melissa should become post-tropical around Friday evening, prior to
making its closest approach to Newfoundland. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies within the upper
portion of the intensity guidance suite. The NHC intensity and
radii forecasts after Melissa becomes post-tropical are largely
based on the global model solutions.
Key Messages:
1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning early this evening.
Preparations should have been completed.
2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 30.2N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 40.4N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 46.3N 52.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0600Z 53.8N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1800Z 55.1N 33.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1800Z 57.6N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z 61.7N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Hagen
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook