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Fiona – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Fiona – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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NHC Public Advisory on Fiona
  • Wed, 17 Sep 2025 20:43:12 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 3 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 3
    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 172043
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
    Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    500 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

    ...CENTER OF GABRIELLE RE-FORMS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
    POSITION...

    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...19.4N 48.0W
    ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
    located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 48.0 West. Gabrielle is
    moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a northwest
    or west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next few
    days.

    Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
    increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
    in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but some gradual
    intensification is forecast over the weekend.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
    from the center, primarily in the eastern semicircle of the storm.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Lamers/Blake
NHC Forecast Advisory on Fiona
  • Wed, 17 Sep 2025 20:42:42 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast/Advisor... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast/Advisory Number 3
    755
    WTNT22 KNHC 172042
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
    ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
    2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 48.0W AT 17/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
    34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 100NW.
    4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 48.0W AT 17/2100Z
    AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 47.5W

    FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.6N 49.7W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.7N 51.6W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.7N 53.5W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...130NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.7N 57.4W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.2N 59.0W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
    34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 32.0N 62.5W
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
    34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 48.0W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER LAMERS/BLAKE
NHC Discussion on Fiona
  • Wed, 17 Sep 2025 20:44:43 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3
    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 172044
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
    Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    500 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

    The biggest change with Gabrielle today has been that the center
    has re-formed farther to the north compared with the previous
    advisory, similar to earlier model forecasts. While satellite
    imagery continues to indicate an elongated circulation with
    multiple embedded swirls, it has become better defined than this
    morning, and we have continued to make the center position on the
    advisory a mean of those swirls. A second scatterometer pass that
    intersected the northern semicircle of the storm after the 15Z
    advisory did show a large area of 40-45 kt winds. Therefore, the
    initial intensity has been increased to 45 knots, even though the
    system does not appear appreciably more organized.

    The first part of the track forecast has been shifted to the north
    based on the recent center re-formation. Gabrielle is moving
    northwestward now, and a west-northwestward to northwestward track
    is anticipated for the next few days due to steering from the
    subtropical ridge. The fundamental forecast question for both
    track and intensity is related to the wind shear Gabrielle will
    experience and the structural change. Little intensity change is
    shown for the next couple of days while the storm remains in a
    high-shear but high SST/instability environment. There actually
    appears to be good consensus that the shear will relax after Friday,
    but there are significant model differences on how much. This leads
    to a considerable amount of track and intensity spread as the
    forecast progresses into the weekend. Generally the models that
    relax the shear more substantially, to around 10 knots or less, show
    more intensification and a track to the right of model consensus.
    Since the NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the model average
    (similar to the last prediction), we favor a track forecast to the
    right of the model blend, more consistent with the HCCA corrected
    consensus, Google Deep Mind ensemble, and ECMWF ensemble.

    Overall, forecast confidence remains relatively low. Based on the
    recent trends, this system should pass well east and north of the
    Windward and Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda should
    monitor forecasts during the next several days.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 17/2100Z 19.4N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 18/0600Z 20.6N 49.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 18/1800Z 21.7N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 19/0600Z 22.7N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 19/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    60H 20/0600Z 24.7N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 20/1800Z 26.2N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
    96H 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 22/1800Z 32.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Lamers/Blake
2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic
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