Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

Theta – Last NHC Advisory Issued – 2020 Hurricane Season

ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Theta as of 11-15-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.

NHC Important Links:
NHC Discussion / NHC Public Advisory / NHC Forecast / Wind Probs / Storm Archive
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FSU Track Probability - NOAA Tracker - Albany Tracker - Navy NRL Page - HFIP Products - TropicalAtlantic Tracker - NCAR Guidance Page - CyclonicWX Tracker Products - CIMSS Tracker - TropicalTidbits Tracker - UWM Tracker - SFWMD Models

NHC Public Advisory on Theta

Mon, 04 Oct 2021 14:42:57 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Victor Advisory Number 21 - Atlantic Remnants Of Victor Advisory Number 21

000
WTNT35 KNHC 041442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Victor Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021

...VICTOR DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 45.2W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Victor were located near
latitude 18.8 North, longitude 45.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening
is forecast through tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Victor. Additional information on the remnants of Victor
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

NHC Forecast Advisory on Theta

Mon, 04 Oct 2021 14:42:36 +0000: Atlantic Remnants of VICTOR Forecast/Advisory Numb... - Atlantic Remnants of VICTOR Forecast/Advisory Number 21 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 45.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON VICTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF VICTOR CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
WTNT25 KNHC 041442
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021
1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 45.2W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 44.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 45.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON VICTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF VICTOR
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

NHC Discussion on Theta

Mon, 04 Oct 2021 14:44:02 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Victor Discussion Number 21 - Atlantic Remnants Of Victor Discussion Number 21

000
WTNT45 KNHC 041443
TCDAT5

Remnants Of Victor Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021

Victor is no longer a tropical cyclone. A timely 1048 UTC ASCAT-A
pass confirms that Victor does not have a closed surface
circulation. Since the system has degenerated into a trough of low
pressure over the central Atlantic, this will be the final NHC
advisory on Victor. An area of 20 to 22-kt scatterometer winds is
noted well to the northeast of the trough axis, but these winds
should diminish through tonight as the trough dampens and the
remnants move west-northwestward. Hostile environmental conditions,
including strong southerly shear and very dry mid-level air, will
inhibit any redevelopment of this system.

Additional information on the remnants of Victor can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 18.8N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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