Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2024 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Theta – Last NHC Advisory Issued – 2020 Hurricane Season

ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Theta as of 11-15-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.

NHC Important Links:
NHC Discussion / NHC Public Advisory / NHC Forecast / Wind Probs / Storm Archive
Storm Tracking Important Links:
FSU Track Probability - NOAA Tracker - Albany Tracker - Navy NRL Page - HFIP Products - TropicalAtlantic Tracker - NCAR Guidance Page - CyclonicWX Tracker Products - CIMSS Tracker - TropicalTidbits Tracker - UWM Tracker - SFWMD Models

NHC Public Advisory on Theta

Sun, 20 Oct 2024 14:48:54 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Nadine Advisory Number 8 - Atlantic Remnants Of Nadine Advisory Number 8

797
WTNT35 KNHC 201440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Nadine Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...NADINE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING STILL EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF BELIZE, GUATEMALA, AND MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 93.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Nadine were located near
latitude 16.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and they are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the
formation of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern
Mexico in a day or so. Additional development is expected after
that time, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the
early to middle part of this week while the system moves westward
at about 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.

For additional information on the remnants of Nadine please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php, and the latest updates in the
East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook on the web at
hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the remnants of Nadine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated areas up to 12 inches, are expected across the Mexican
states of Chiapas and Tabasco into Veracruz and Oaxaca through
Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
isolated amounts up to 4 inches, are expected for the remaining
portions of southeastern Mexico into Guatemala and Belize.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
the remnants Nadine, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

NHC Forecast Advisory on Theta

Sun, 20 Oct 2024 14:39:56 +0000: Atlantic Remnants of NADINE Forecast/Advisory Numb... - Atlantic Remnants of NADINE Forecast/Advisory Number 8 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024 1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 93.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

000
WTNT25 KNHC 201439
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 93.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

NHC Discussion on Theta

Sun, 20 Oct 2024 14:42:53 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Nadine Discussion Number 8 - Atlantic Remnants Of Nadine Discussion Number 8

011
WTNT45 KNHC 201442
TCDAT5

Remnants Of Nadine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

First-light GOES-16 imagery and station observations suggest that
the surface circulation associated with Nadine has dissipated over
southern Mexico. Peak sustained winds remain 25 kt, mainly over the
Bay of Campeche.

The remnants of Nadine are moving toward the west-southwest at
around 12 kt and they are expected to move into the eastern Pacific
later today.

The combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the
formation of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern
Mexico in a day or so. Additional development is expected after that
time, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early
to middle part of this week while the system moves westward at about
15 kt away from the coast of Mexico.

For additional information on the remnants of Nadine as it enters
the eastern Pacific please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php,
and the latest updates in the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
on the web at hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac.

Key Messages:

1. Localized areas of flash flooding will remain possible in
the vicinity of the remnants of Nadine across Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southern Mexico through Tuesday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 16.5N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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