Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tropical Depression 12 – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on TD12

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 08:43:59 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 20 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 20

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160843
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

...GORDON MAINTAINING ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 47.5W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 47.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
westward motion is expected during the next day or so, with
Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, though Gordon could become a post-tropical remnant low at any
time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

NHC Forecast Advisory on TD12

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 08:43:26 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression GORDON Forecast/Advis... - Atlantic Tropical Depression GORDON Forecast/Advisory Number 20 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.5W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.5W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 47.5W NEXT Advisory AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
WTNT22 KNHC 160843
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 47.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

NHC Discussion on TD12

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 08:44:30 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 20 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 20

000
WTNT42 KNHC 160844
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

The convection that developed during the evening hours on the east
side of Gordon has persisted through the night. Nighttime CIRA
proxy vis imagery suggests that the low-level center of Gordon is
near the western edge of this convection. Subjective and objective
intensity estimates range from 25 to 33 kt. In the absence of
ASCAT data, no change is made to the 25-kt intensity carried in
the previous NHC advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/7 kt.
Gordon is being steered westward by the subtropical ridge, situated
to the north of the tropical depression. This setup should
continue to steer Gordon slowly westward through today.
Thereafter, a frontal low located to the north of the ridge is
forecast to drop equatorward towards Gordon, creating a weakness
in the subtropical ridge. As a result of this steering change,
Gordon should initially slow its forward motion, and then turn
toward the north-northeast while gradually accelerating. The
consensus track models have continued to shift a bit to the right
and faster, and the latest NHC forecast is again nudged in that
direction.

Gordon has been doing a remarkable job fighting off environmental
dry air given how the area of convection has maintained itself
overnight relatively close to the low-level center. Gordon is
forecast to remain in a dry mid-level environment for the next few
days, although some slight moistening of the environment is
possible beyond 24 h while the vertical shear is forecast to remain
relatively low. Although it is still possible that Gordon could
degenerate to a remnant low, if the cyclone is able to survive the
next 24 h, then its chances of surviving the next 5 days would seem
to increase. There is also some uncertainty as to how Gordon's
circulation could potentially interact with a non-tropical low in 3
to 4 days. If Gordon then survives its interaction with the
non-tropical low, some strengthening would be possible in 4 to 5
days as shown by some of the global models. No changes were made to
the previous NHC intensity prediction, which still assumes Gordon
will survive in the short term.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 19.2N 47.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

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