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DONATETracking Tammy – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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NHC Public Advisory on Tammy
- Wed, 20 Aug 2025 17:37:12 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 37a - Atlantic Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 37a
596
WTNT35 KNHC 201737
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SOON IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS..
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 73.6W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 73.6 West. Erin is moving toward
the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today through
early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
and Erin could become a major hurricane again by tonight. Weakening
is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a
hurricane into the weekend.
Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning
late today. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely
Thursday through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda Thursday and Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into
Thursday.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Forecast Advisory on Tammy
- Wed, 20 Aug 2025 14:53:58 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Erin Forecast/Advisory Number 3... - Atlantic Hurricane Erin Forecast/Advisory Number 37
000
WTNT25 KNHC 201453
TCMAT5
HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2025
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 73.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......220NE 230SE 130SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....420NE 420SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 73.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 73.7W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 170NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 240SE 200SW 190NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 230SW 230NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...290NE 280SE 240SW 250NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 100SE 110SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...320NE 330SE 260SW 250NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 90SE 100SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 340SE 270SW 260NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 340SW 260NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 210SW 120NW.
34 KT...280NE 380SE 420SW 360NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 73.7W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Discussion on Tammy
- Wed, 20 Aug 2025 15:14:36 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 37...corrected (corrected) - Atlantic Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 37...corrected (corrected)
000
WTNT45 KNHC 201514 CCA
TCDAT5
Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 37...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
Corrected eye dropsonde wind to 19 kt and minimum pressure to 941 mb
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level
winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center. Using a reduction
factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall
winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory. A dropsonde
in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 19 kt winds
so the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 941 mb.
The hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this
morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding
features. The eye has again become evident on the imagery and
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants.
Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of
350/11 kt. There has been no significant change in the track
forecast guidance since the last advisory package. Over the
next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western
periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it
rounds the northwestern side of the high. Then, the system should
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within
the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies. The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement
with the various dynamical model consensus predictions.
Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to
be reforming. The system is over warm waters and within a moist
low- to mid-level air mass. Although the vertical wind shear is
currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in
shear in 12-24 hours. Therefore the hurricane has the potential to
strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner
core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly
shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening
trend is likely to commence later on Thursday. Simulated satellite
imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an
extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner.
It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.
2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The
storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.
4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 30.1N 73.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
