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- Wed, 22 Oct 2025 11:48:07 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 4a - Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 4a
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221148
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
...RECON FINDS MELISSA MOVING VERY SLOWLY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
14.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Melissa is moving very slowly
toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed
and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is
expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti
later this week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days,
and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data
is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could
begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to
the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.
Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Saturday. For
Aruba and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the same
period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least
Saturday.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
- Wed, 22 Oct 2025 08:54:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/Advisory ... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/Advisory Number 4
000
WTNT23 KNHC 220853
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC WED OCT 22 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 73.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 75SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 73.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 73.5W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.7N 74.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 74.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.6N 75.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 75.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 75.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 75.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 73.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
- Wed, 22 Oct 2025 08:59:33 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4
036
WTNT43 KNHC 220859
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
extremely useful in showing that the center of Melissa has
re-formed to the northeast of the previous center. Earlier
scatterometer data had already shown an elongated circulation, and
the very deep convection combined with the moderate westerly shear
has caused the re-formation. The initial intensity is kept at 45
kt, a compromise between somewhat lower aircraft winds but also
lower central pressure, now at 1000 mb.
The initial motion is estimated, with low confidence, to be 295/6.
Melissa is forecast to move very slowly to the northwest and
north-northwest during the next few days into a weakness by an
approaching mid-latitude trough. There continues to be a very
large uncertainty on whether the storm would turn more into the
weakness and threaten Haiti or Cuba, or whether it would turn
more westward to the south of Jamaica as a ridge rebuilds over the
Bahamas, with reliable models in either camp. This appears to be
somewhat tied to the storm's structure, with the less vertically
coherent model solutions generally ending up on the western side of
the track envelope this weekend, and stronger initial storm
representations on the northeastern side. With such a distinct
track bifurcation noted in the guidance (excluding the consensus
aids) and dependence on structure, this should be considered an
extremely uncertain forecast, and significant changes could be
required. The model trends have been favoring the more westward
solutions recently, and the official forecast is nudged in that
direction at long range.
Melissa is likely to be encountering moderate wind shear for the
next few days, counteracted by the very warm and moist conditions
in the Caribbean Sea. This pattern favors slow intensification
through that time. At long range, some relaxation of this shear is
anticipated with the more equatorward storm solutions showing the
most conducive environment. The new NHC wind speed prediction
is much higher than the last one by day 5, but still lower than the
model consensus due to continuity constraints. While there is
still a large forecast intensity uncertainty, the chances of a major
hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest
at long range, similar to many of the recent regional hurricane
model forecasts.
Key Messages:
1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.
2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.
3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 14.3N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.7N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.2N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.6N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.3N 75.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 16.7N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 17.0N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake