2025 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

STORM TEMPLATE example Laura

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ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Laura as of 8-28-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.
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NHC Public Advisory on Laura
  • Wed, 22 Oct 2025 11:48:07 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 4a - Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 4a
    000
    WTNT33 KNHC 221148
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
    800 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

    ...RECON FINDS MELISSA MOVING VERY SLOWLY...
    ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
    AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...14.3N 73.5W
    ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
    ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
    Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Jamaica

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
    before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
    winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
    dangerous.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
    should monitor the progress of Melissa.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
    located by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
    14.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Melissa is moving very slowly
    toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed
    and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected
    during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is
    expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti
    later this week.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days,
    and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
    from the center.

    The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data
    is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
    Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could
    begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.

    RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to
    the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
    through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
    heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however, uncertainty in
    Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
    totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.

    Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
    Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Saturday. For
    Aruba and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the same
    period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least
    Saturday.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
    Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

    SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
    Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
    days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

    A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
    at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin
NHC Forecast Advisory on Laura
  • Wed, 22 Oct 2025 08:54:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/Advisory ... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast/Advisory Number 4
    000
    WTNT23 KNHC 220853
    TCMAT3

    TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
    0900 UTC WED OCT 22 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 73.5W AT 22/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
    34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
    4 M SEAS....150NE 75SE 0SW 90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 73.5W AT 22/0900Z
    AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 73.5W

    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.7N 74.3W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 74.9W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.6N 75.1W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 75.2W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 75.3W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 75.5W
    MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
    50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W
    MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
    34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 76.5W
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
    34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 73.5W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
NHC Discussion on Laura
  • Wed, 22 Oct 2025 08:59:33 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4
    036
    WTNT43 KNHC 220859
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
    500 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

    Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
    extremely useful in showing that the center of Melissa has
    re-formed to the northeast of the previous center. Earlier
    scatterometer data had already shown an elongated circulation, and
    the very deep convection combined with the moderate westerly shear
    has caused the re-formation. The initial intensity is kept at 45
    kt, a compromise between somewhat lower aircraft winds but also
    lower central pressure, now at 1000 mb.

    The initial motion is estimated, with low confidence, to be 295/6.
    Melissa is forecast to move very slowly to the northwest and
    north-northwest during the next few days into a weakness by an
    approaching mid-latitude trough. There continues to be a very
    large uncertainty on whether the storm would turn more into the
    weakness and threaten Haiti or Cuba, or whether it would turn
    more westward to the south of Jamaica as a ridge rebuilds over the
    Bahamas, with reliable models in either camp. This appears to be
    somewhat tied to the storm's structure, with the less vertically
    coherent model solutions generally ending up on the western side of
    the track envelope this weekend, and stronger initial storm
    representations on the northeastern side. With such a distinct
    track bifurcation noted in the guidance (excluding the consensus
    aids) and dependence on structure, this should be considered an
    extremely uncertain forecast, and significant changes could be
    required. The model trends have been favoring the more westward
    solutions recently, and the official forecast is nudged in that
    direction at long range.

    Melissa is likely to be encountering moderate wind shear for the
    next few days, counteracted by the very warm and moist conditions
    in the Caribbean Sea. This pattern favors slow intensification
    through that time. At long range, some relaxation of this shear is
    anticipated with the more equatorward storm solutions showing the
    most conducive environment. The new NHC wind speed prediction
    is much higher than the last one by day 5, but still lower than the
    model consensus due to continuity constraints. While there is
    still a large forecast intensity uncertainty, the chances of a major
    hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest
    at long range, similar to many of the recent regional hurricane
    model forecasts.


    Key Messages:

    1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
    the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
    bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.

    2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
    of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
    Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
    property should be completed by Thursday.

    3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
    forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
    should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 22/0900Z 14.3N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 22/1800Z 14.7N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 23/0600Z 15.2N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
    36H 23/1800Z 15.6N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
    48H 24/0600Z 16.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
    60H 24/1800Z 16.3N 75.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
    72H 25/0600Z 16.7N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
    96H 26/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
    120H 27/0600Z 17.0N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic
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