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Tracking Ophelia – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2026 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Tracking Ophelia – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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NHC Public Advisory on PTC16
  • Thu, 18 Jun 2026 02:48:12 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Advisory Number 8 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Advisory Number 8
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 180248
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Advisory Number 8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
    1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

    ...ARTHUR DEGENERATES TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE UPPER
    TEXAS COAST...
    ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


    SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...29.7N 94.5W
    ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
    ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    None.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
    Arthur was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 94.5 West.
    The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph
    (15 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
    expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast
    Thursday through Friday. On the forecast track, the remnants of
    Arthur should move farther inland over southeastern Texas and
    western Louisiana tonight, then cross the southeastern United States
    Thursday through Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    While additional weakening is expected as the system moves inland,
    the remnants of Arthur will continue to produce widespread heavy
    rains across the southeastern United States during the next few
    days.

    The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
    is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for remnants of Arthur can be found in the Tropical
    Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
    WTNT41 KNHC.

    RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
    inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early
    Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into
    southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
    Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida
    Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash
    flooding.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the
    remnants of Arthur, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
    graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

    For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
    with Arthur, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the
    WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
    www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

    WIND: Winds gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along the
    Louisiana coast tonight.

    STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Upper Texas
    coast but will continue to subside overnight.

    SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are likely to cause
    life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the
    northwestern Gulf Coast for the next day or two. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.

    A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
    at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

    TORNADO: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across southeast
    Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and tomorrow into parts of
    Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on this system.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
NHC Forecast Advisory on PTC16
  • Thu, 18 Jun 2026 02:47:42 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast/Adv... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast/Advisory Number 8
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 180247
    TCMAT1

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
    0300 UTC THU JUN 18 2026

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 94.5W AT 18/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 94.5W AT 18/0300Z
    AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 94.8W

    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 94.5W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR MAY EMERGE OVER THE
    ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY, AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
    BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Discussion on PTC16
  • Thu, 18 Jun 2026 02:49:07 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 8 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 8
    697
    WTNT41 KNHC 180249
    TCDAT1

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
    1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

    Surface observations indicated that the center of Arthur re-formed
    near Galveston around 21-22Z in response to an offshore convective
    burst. Since that time, there has been no organized convection near
    the center, and the circulation has become elongated along the Upper
    Texas coast. Based on these developments, and the expectation that
    organized convection will not reform near the center, Arthur is no
    longer a tropical cyclone and is being downgraded to a post-tropical
    low with 30 kt winds.

    While the motion is a bit uncertain due to the center reformation,
    it appears that the system is starting to move a bit faster toward
    the northeast with the initial motion estimated at 040/8 kt. A
    general northeastward motion is expected until the surface center
    dissipates tonight over southeastern Texas or southwestern
    Louisiana. After that, the remnants of Arthur should move east-
    northeastward across the southeastern United States and emerge into
    the Atlantic on Friday. A continued east-northeastward motion out to
    sea is expected thereafter.

    As mentioned, the surface center of Arthur is expected to dissipate
    later tonight. The global models suggest that the surface center
    could reform near the Atlantic coast on Friday, with some
    intensification possible as the system moves out to sea. It is
    unclear at this time whether this re-development will be due to
    tropical cyclone processes or baroclinic process. However, marine
    gale warnings are being issued for portions of the western Atlantic
    in anticipation of this development.

    Even though Arthur is no longer a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall
    and life-threatening flash flooding will continue to be a major
    hazard for the next few days across the southeastern United States.
    There is also an increased tornado threat for portions of the
    southeastern U.S. through Thursday.

    That is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
    this system. Rainfall forecasts for the remnants of Arthur in the
    United States can be found at
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash
    flood risks can be found at
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
    .
    Marine forecasts, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
    Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
    NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding
    are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern
    Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
    Panhandle. Scattered minor river flooding is expected, with the
    potential for isolated moderate to major river flooding. Ongoing
    heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat through the weekend.

    2. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur along portions
    of the Louisiana coast tonight.

    3. Coastal flooding along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should
    gradually subside later tonight and Thursday.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 18/0300Z 29.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
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