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DONATETracking Nigel – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- Fri, 22 Aug 2025 14:38:44 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 45 - Atlantic Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 45
000
WTNT35 KNHC 221438
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 22 2025
...ERIN STILL A VERY LARGE HURRICANE...
...SWIMMING AT MANY U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
DANGEROUS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 63.1W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 63.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). This general motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a
turn back to the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin will pass south of Atlantic Canada today and tonight,
and then race across the north Atlantic waters.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is likely to become post-tropical by tonight but remain
a powerful hurricane-force low pressure system through the weekend.
Erin is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles (220 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 435 miles (705 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
WIND: Gale-force wind gusts are possible along portions of the
coast of Nova Scotia today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland
on Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide
along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts
through tonight, making some roads impassable. See updates from
your local National Weather Service office for details.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
- Fri, 22 Aug 2025 14:38:44 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Erin Forecast/Advisory Number 4... - Atlantic Hurricane Erin Forecast/Advisory Number 45
000
WTNT25 KNHC 221438
TCMAT5
HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2025
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 63.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 24 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
50 KT.......180NE 190SE 180SW 150NW.
34 KT.......380NE 350SE 270SW 280NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 420SE 660SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 63.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 64.6W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 58.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 150NW.
34 KT...360NE 350SE 290SW 280NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.3N 51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 80SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT...400NE 360SE 320SW 260NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 45.5N 41.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 80SE 100SW 70NW.
50 KT...120NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.
34 KT...370NE 360SE 360SW 260NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 49.6N 32.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 220SE 180SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 400SE 380SW 300NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 52.9N 25.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 220SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...320NE 400SE 450SW 350NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 55.9N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 170SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 380SE 550SW 340NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 58.1N 21.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 280SE 500SW 240NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 56.5N 18.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 280SE 500SW 160NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 63.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
- Fri, 22 Aug 2025 14:39:44 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 45 - Atlantic Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 45
542
WTNT45 KNHC 221439
TCDAT5
Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 22 2025
Erin is now well into its extratropical transition. While there is
some convection that has recently reformed near the center, all of
its other convection has shifted on the left side, with noticeable
frontal features in the northeastern quadrant. Additionally, the
stratus and stratocumulus clouds off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast
continue to suggest that cold air advection is occuring in the
hurricane's wake. The initial intensity is kept at 80 kt pending
receipt of the full late-morning scatterometer data, though the
partial pass suggested Erin had grown even larger.
The hurricane is moving faster to the east-northeast, now estimated
at 24 kt. Model guidance is rapidly accelerating Erin in that
direction over the weekend, reaching a peak speed of up to 40 kt
Sunday. The powerful extratropical low should slow down and could
undergo a loop over the far North Atlantic early next week as it
becomes a large occluded low. The new forecast is a bit faster and
south of the previous one, based on the latest corrected consensus
guidance from HCCA and Google Deep Mind.
Current trends and model fields indicate that Erin should complete
extratropical transition by tonight, with perhaps a slight weakening
of the winds on Saturday. However, Erin is forecast to become an
even larger and stronger system late Saturday into Sunday due to
phasing with a mid-latitude trough, inducing baroclinic
reintensification and even the development of a sting jet on the
back side. While they disagree on the exact timing, the global
models are all showing a 75-90 kt sting jet on Sunday. The new NHC
forecast is raised during the extratropical phase for Sunday, and
still could be too low if the latest ECMWF solution is correct. A
steady weakening is likely to occur early next week as Erin occludes
and loses its upper support south of Iceland.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.
2. Coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide along portions
of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through tonight,
making some roads impassable. Large waves along the coast could
also cause significant beach erosion and overwash.
3. Gale-force wind gusts are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia
today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 38.8N 63.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 40.4N 58.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 23/1200Z 42.3N 51.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 24/0000Z 45.5N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1200Z 49.6N 32.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0000Z 52.9N 25.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1200Z 55.9N 22.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1200Z 58.1N 21.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1200Z 56.5N 18.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Blake
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook