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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2022 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Tracking Nicole – 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Latest Model Runs
Model Tracks Zoomed In Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Additional Projected Path Swath
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Tropical Tidbits Storm Page
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
Microwave Imagery
Microwave Imagery
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Floater
Floater
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Average Days For System To Reach U.S.Average Days For System To Reach U.S.
Peak Storm Surge Forecast
 Peak Storm Surge Forecast
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation)
Additional Potential Storm Surge Map
Flash Flood Risk
 Flash Flood Risk
Rainfall Forecast
19L
5 Day WPC Rainfall Forecast
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24 hour - 7 Day
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Past Track History Past Track History
CyclonicWX Storm Page
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Key Messages
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WeatherNerds.org Floaters
Other Floater Sites:
TropicalTidbits - NRL Floaters - CyclonicWx - RAMMB Sat - RAMMB Model Data - RAMMB Wind Products

Radar Loops Nearby
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Archived Loops
Intensity Forecasts Intensity Forecasts Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks Model Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
EPS Ensemble Tracks
NHC Public Advisory on Nicole
  • Fri, 11 Nov 2022 14:41:35 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 18 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 18

    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 111441
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 18
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
    1000 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

    ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...
    ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
    CENTER...


    SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...34.2N 84.3W
    ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicole
    was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 84.3 West. The
    depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37
    km/h). A faster north-northeast motion is expected this afternoon.
    On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will continue to move
    over the southern Appalachians during the next few hours.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Nicole is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today,
    and the cyclone is likely to dissipate tonight. However, Nicole's
    remnants will continue to move northeastward across the eastern
    United States through Saturday morning.

    The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
    observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
    and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

    RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
    amounts through Saturday:

    Portions of the Southeast, southern and central Appalachians,
    central and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to
    4 inches with local maxima of 6 to 8 inches along the Blue Ridge.

    Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 3 inches.

    Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
    Across portions of the Appalachians, upper Ohio Valley,
    Mid-Atlantic, and New England through Saturday, limited flooding
    impacts will be possible.

    For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
    Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
    the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

    TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over parts of North
    Carolina, and southern and eastern Virginia.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
    found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
    beginning at 4 PM EST, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32
    KWNH, and on the web at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and hurricanes.gov.

    $$
    Forecaster D. Zelinsky

NHC Forecast Advisory on Nicole
  • Fri, 11 Nov 2022 14:40:36 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression NICOLE Forecast/Advis... - Atlantic Tropical Depression NICOLE Forecast/Advisory Number 18 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022 1500 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 84.3W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 420SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 84.3W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W...Post-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 84.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2...WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND HURRICANES.GOV. $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 111440
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
    1500 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 84.3W AT 11/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
    12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 420SE 0SW 0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 84.3W AT 11/1500Z
    AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 84.5W

    FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 84.3W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
    FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
    BEGINNING AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2...WMO
    HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
    HURRICANES.GOV.

    $$
    FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY


NHC Discussion on Nicole
  • Fri, 11 Nov 2022 14:42:33 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 18 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 18

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 111442
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 18
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
    1000 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

    Satellite imagery, NWS radar data, and surface observations across
    the southeastern U.S. indicate that Nicole still has a well-enough
    defined circulation and sufficient convective organization to be
    classified as a tropical depression. Surface observations reveal
    that its central pressure has risen to near 1001 mb while its
    strongest sustained winds are near 25 kt. Those winds are occuring
    just offshore of Georgia and South Carolina. Although Nicole's winds
    are decreasing, the threat of heavy rain which could lead to flash
    flooding across portions of the Appalachians will continue today.
    There is also a threat of tornadoes today, especially well to the
    northeast of Nicole's center in eastern North Carolina and Virginia.

    The depression accelerated northward earlier this morning and now
    appears to be turning north-northeastward as previously forecast.
    The surface circulation of Nicole will likely become poorly defined
    and the system will become post-tropical as it continues to
    accelerate north-northeastward this afternoon and tonight.

    Since Nicole is a tropical depression with no tropical wind or storm
    surge watches or warnings, this will be the last advisory issued by
    the National Hurricane Center. Future advisories will be issued by
    the Weather Prediction Center. Products from the Weather Prediction
    Center will continue to populate on the NHC website as long as
    Nicole remains a flooding threat to the U.S.


    Key Messages:

    1. Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
    Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible on
    Friday across the southern and central Appalachians, particularly in
    the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heavy rain and isolated flooding impacts
    will extend north through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
    into western New York and northern New England by Friday night into
    Saturday.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 11/1500Z 34.2N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
    12H 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster D. Zelinsky

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
5 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

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