2025 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

Tracking Lorenzo – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Tracking Lorenzo – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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NHC Public Advisory
  • Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:35:25 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3
    141
    WTNT32 KNHC 132035
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
    500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

    ...LORENZO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...15.2N 41.7W
    ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
    located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 41.7 West. Lorenzo is
    moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
    expected through Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north Tuesday
    night. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.

    Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
    or so, but some gradual intensification is possible later in the
    week.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Discussion
  • Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:35:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3
    001
    WTNT42 KNHC 132035
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
    500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025

    A mid- to upper-level low to the west of Lorenzo is producing strong
    west-southwesterly shear, causing the low-level center to be mostly
    exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. The
    initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data
    and a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. The scatterometer data
    is also the basis for the initial 34-kt wind radii, which shows the
    tropical-storm-force winds mostly limited to the eastern half of the
    storm.

    Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 10 kt, and that motion should
    continue for about another day. However, by late Tuesday, a turn to
    the north is forecast as a weakness develops in the subtropical
    ridge over the central Atlantic. The storm is then expected to turn
    northeastward later in the week as a large-scale mid- to upper-level
    trough approaches from the west. Most of the models show this
    trough cutting off, causing Lorenzo to slow down and turn eastward
    or southeastward over the weekend. The NHC track forecast is
    generally similar to the previous one and on the right side of the
    guidance envelope, in best agreement with HCCA. Regardless of the
    details, Lorenzo is not expected to be near land during the next
    several days.

    The strong shear over Lorenzo is likely to let up during the next
    few days, but the models also show some dry air entraining into the
    circulation. In fact, some of the global models show Lorenzo
    remaining lopsided and even opening up into a trough. The NHC
    intensity forecast shows some strengthening, but this is of low
    confidence as there is some possibility that Lorenzo succumbs to
    the unfavorable environmental conditions. This prediction is a
    little lower than the previous one, but remains near the high end
    of the model guidance.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 13/2100Z 15.2N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 14/1800Z 17.8N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 15/0600Z 20.0N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 15/1800Z 22.6N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
    60H 16/0600Z 25.3N 41.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 16/1800Z 28.2N 38.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
    96H 17/1800Z 31.4N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
    120H 18/1800Z 30.1N 29.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Forecast Advisory
  • Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:34:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast/Advisory ... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast/Advisory Number 3
    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 132034
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
    2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 41.7W AT 13/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
    34 KT.......140NE 130SE 0SW 90NW.
    4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 30SW 90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 41.7W AT 13/2100Z
    AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.3W

    FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.1W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.8N 44.3W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.0N 44.7W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.6N 43.6W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.3N 41.6W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.2N 38.3W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 31.4N 31.4W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 30.1N 29.2W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 41.7W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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