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Larry – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Larry – 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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NHC Public Advisory on Larry
  • Thu, 18 Sep 2025 20:52:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 7 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 7
    394
    WTNT32 KNHC 182051
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
    Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    500 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

    ...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...20.8N 52.7W
    ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
    located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 52.7 West. Gabrielle is
    moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
    motion is expected to continue over the next couple days, followed
    by a northwestward turn this weekend.

    Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next 24
    hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast shortly
    thereafter and could become a hurricane late weekend into early
    next week.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Mullinax/Blake
NHC Forecast Advisory on Larry
  • Thu, 18 Sep 2025 20:51:30 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast/Advisor... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast/Advisory Number 7
    329
    WTNT22 KNHC 182051
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
    ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
    2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 52.7W AT 18/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
    34 KT.......250NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.
    4 M SEAS....300NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 52.7W AT 18/2100Z
    AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 52.2W

    FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.5N 54.2W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT...190NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.3W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT...160NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.9N 58.1W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...160NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.8W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
    34 KT...140NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.1N 61.1W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT...140NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
    50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
    34 KT...140NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 33.0N 61.0W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
    34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 39.0N 52.5W
    MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
    34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 52.7W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE
NHC Discussion on Larry
  • Thu, 18 Sep 2025 20:54:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 7 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 7
    560
    WTNT42 KNHC 182053
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
    Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    500 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

    Gabrielle continues to fight off strong westerly vertical
    wind shear and significant dry air entrainment this afternoon.
    Some thunderstorms have blossomed on the storm's eastern flank,
    which is an improvement from its naked low-level swirl earlier this
    morning. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent
    scatterometer data of at least 40 kt and little in the way of
    change to its structure from earlier this morning.

    Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for another
    day or so, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current
    intensity or weaken slightly during that time. Recent 12Z guidance
    indicates vertical wind shear relaxes and an increasingly moist
    vertical profile should foster a much improved environment for
    strengthening this weekend, with the GFS model trending toward the
    more conducive ECMWF solution. As a result, intensity guidance is
    notable higher on this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast is raised
    from the previous one, but not as high as the model consensus
    mostly due to continuity. There are a growing number of hurricane
    models that are indicating Gabrielle could approach major hurricane
    strength after the weekend.

    Gabrielle is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt and should maintain
    this track with a bend toward the northwest over the next few days
    as the storm is steered primarily by a subtropical ridge over the
    central Atlantic. A turn toward the north and northeast is
    forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when
    Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge and a frontal
    system approaches from the west. While the guidance envelope has
    shrunk on this forecast cycle, there are some significant speed
    differences, with the ECMWF/GFS models considerably faster than the
    Google Deep Mind ensemble. Although no significant changes to the
    forecast were made, confidence remains on the lower side given the
    along-track model spread and an unclear intensity forecast beyond
    48 hours. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle
    over the next several days.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 18/2100Z 20.8N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 19/0600Z 21.5N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 56.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 20/0600Z 23.9N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
    60H 21/0600Z 27.1N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
    72H 21/1800Z 29.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
    96H 22/1800Z 33.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
    120H 23/1800Z 39.0N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Mullinax/Blake
2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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