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- Fri, 26 Sep 2025 14:39:18 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 39 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 39
772
WTNT32 KNHC 261439
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025
...CENTER OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 22.8W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ENE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 22.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
31 mph (50 km/h). A turn toward the east with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through Saturday, followed by a turn toward the
southeast and south through early next week. On the forecast track,
the center of post-tropical Gabrielle will continue moving away from
the Azores today, then approach the coast of Portugal by early
Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through tonight, with
weakening expected over the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
WIND: Gusty winds across the central and southeastern Azores will
continue to diminish this afternoon.
RAINFALL: Gabrielle is expected to produce less than an inch, or 25
mm, of additional rainfall across the Azores today. Any flooding
caused by Gabrielle across the terrain of the central Azores should
subside today.
SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle will affect the Azores through
the weekend and will reach the coasts of Portugal, northwestern
Spain, and northern Morocco on Saturday. These swells are expected
to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products issued by your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on marine impacts can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt. Future
information on potential land-based impacts in Portugal can be found
in products issued by the Portugal Meteorological Institute at
https://www.ipma.pt/en/index.html
$$
Forecaster Hagen
- Fri, 26 Sep 2025 14:37:48 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forecast/... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forecast/Advisory Number 39
983
WTNT22 KNHC 261437
TCMAT2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
1500 UTC FRI SEP 26 2025
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 22.8W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 27 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 150SE 480SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 22.8W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 24.2W
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 40.8N 18.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 41.0N 13.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 140SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 40.1N 10.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 100SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 8.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 7.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.6N 7.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 22.8W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
- Fri, 26 Sep 2025 14:42:18 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 39 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 39
000
WTNT42 KNHC 261442
TCDAT2
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025
Gabrielle is a storm-force extratropical cyclone with frontal
boundaries that extend east-northeastward and southwestward from the
cyclone. The center continues moving away from the Azores, and
winds have dropped below gale-force across the islands. Recent
ASCAT passes missed the center, but winds up to 43 kt were measured
by the instrument well away from the center in the southeast
quadrant. Global models show 10-meter winds up to 55 kt in their
fields at the current time, so the initial intensity will be held
at 55 kt.
Some intensification is possible this evening, and the 06Z GFS model
indicates a sting jet could briefly cause winds up to 70-75 kt in
the western semicircle in about 6 h from now. The NHC forecast
brings Gabrielle to 60 kt in 12 h, but doesn't necessarily account
for brief stronger winds that could occur between the current time
and the 12 h point. Global models are in good agreement on steady
weakening after hour 12, and the NHC intensity forecast is based on
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. It's possible that gale force winds
near 35 kt, with higher gusts, could affect portions of the west
coast of Portugal around early Sunday.
The current motion is quickly east-northeastward, or 065/27 kt. A
turn toward the east along with a decrease in forward speed is
expected in 12-24 h. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn
southeastward as it approaches the coast of Portugal. This should
be followed by an even slower southeastward to southward motion
while Gabrielle decays and eventually dissipates near southern
Portugal and northern Morocco. The forecast track has been shifted
slightly to the northeast, or left, of the previous NHC track,
closer to the latest simple and corrected consensus models.
This is the final advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Gabrielle. Future information on marine impacts can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and available on the web at
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt. Future
information on potential land-based impacts in Portugal can be found
in products issued by the Portugal Meteorological Institute at
https://www.ipma.pt/en/index.html
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Winds across the Azores will continue to subside this afternoon.
2. Any flooding caused by Gabrielle across the high terrain of the
central Azores should subside this afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 40.0N 22.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 27/0000Z 40.8N 18.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/1200Z 41.0N 13.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 28/0000Z 40.1N 10.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1200Z 38.5N 8.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 29/0000Z 36.9N 7.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/1200Z 35.6N 7.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hagen
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook