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- Thu, 02 Oct 2025 14:46:34 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Advisory Number 24 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Advisory Number 24
203
WTNT34 KNHC 021446
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025
...IMELDA BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 59.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
None.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Imelda was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 59.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through tonight. A northeastward motion is then forecast on Friday
and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, but
the post-tropical cyclone will remain a large and powerful system
as it moves across the central Atlantic.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and gale-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500
km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda are expected to gradually subside
today.
SURF: Distant swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will
spread toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on
Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
- Thu, 02 Oct 2025 14:46:08 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Forecast/Adv... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Forecast/Advisory Number 24
000
WTNT24 KNHC 021446
TCMAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
1500 UTC THU OCT 02 2025
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 59.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 25 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 240SE 180SW 270NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 330SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 59.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 60.9W
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 170SW 270NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.3N 51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 200SW 270NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.9N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 210SW 250NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.7N 47.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 220SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 44.6N 44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 210SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 47.1N 40.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 160NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 50.0N 30.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 100SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 59.5W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
- Thu, 02 Oct 2025 14:48:37 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Discussion Number 24 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Discussion Number 24
000
WTNT44 KNHC 021448
TCDAT4
Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025
Imelda is no longer a tropical cyclone. Visible satellite images and
global model fields indicate that a front extends into the center of
the cyclone from the east-northeast, while another frontal feature
has developed to the south of the cyclone. This is consistent with
overnight microwave data that showed Imelda taking the appearance of
an occluded cyclone, as well as recent satellite trends that show
the remaining convection is mainly focused along these fronts.
Therefore, Imelda is classified as a 65-kt extratropical cyclone
this morning, and this will be the final NHC advisory on the system.
Post-tropical Imelda is racing toward the east-northeast (075/25
kt) away from Bermuda. The cyclone is expected to turn northeastward
on Friday ahead of an amplifying upper-level trough over the
northern Atlantic, then turn back toward the east-northeast by
Sunday within the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in
much better agreement than yesterday, and the NHC forecast lies near
the center of the envelope between the HCCA and TVCA aids.
Baroclinic forcing from the upper trough will likely cause the
cyclone to remain a large, storm-force low through the weekend. Even
though the peak winds are forecast to gradually diminish, a large
area of 34- and 50-kt winds will create hazardous marine conditions
and large swell that will continue to affect an expansive portion of
the western and central Atlantic.
Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Gusty winds over Bermuda will gradually subside today.
2. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next
several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 33.2N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 03/0000Z 34.3N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/1200Z 36.3N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0000Z 38.9N 49.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1200Z 41.7N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0000Z 44.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1200Z 47.1N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1200Z 50.0N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook