2025 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

Tracking Karen – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Tracking Karen – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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NHC Public Advisory
  • Fri, 10 Oct 2025 20:31:50 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Advisory Number 4 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Advisory Number 4
    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 102031
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Advisory Number 4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
    900 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025

    ...KAREN LOSES SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH
    ATLANTIC...


    SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...47.5N 30.2W
    ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen
    was located near latitude 47.5 North, longitude 30.2 West. The
    post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 16
    mph (26 km/h). A faster north-northeastward motion is expected
    until dissipation occurs late Saturday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Gradual weakening is forecast tonight and Saturday, and Karen should
    degenerate into a trough of low pressure late Saturday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on Karen. Additional information on this system can be found
    in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
    FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
    https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
NHC Discussion
  • Fri, 10 Oct 2025 20:32:51 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Discussion Number 4 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Discussion Number 4
    000
    WTNT41 KNHC 102032
    TCDAT1

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Discussion Number 4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025
    900 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025

    Convection associated with Karen has dissipated this evening,
    leaving the system a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The cyclone
    will be moving over even colder waters of the North Atlantic during
    the next 12 to 24 hours, and organized convection is not expected to
    return. Therefore, Karen has lost its designation as a subtropical
    cyclone, and this will be the last NHC advisory. The initial
    intensity remains 40 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. The low should
    gradually weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is expected
    to open up into a trough and be absorbed by an approaching frontal
    system in 24 to 36 hours.

    The low is moving north-northeastward or 025 degrees at 14 kt. The
    system should continue to accelerate north-northeastward ahead of
    an approaching deep-layer trough through Saturday. The updated NHC
    track forecast is once again similar to the previous forecast and
    near the center of the guidance envelope.

    This is the last NHC advisory on Karen. Additional information on
    this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
    France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
    https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 10/2100Z 47.5N 30.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 11/0600Z 49.4N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    24H 11/1800Z 53.5N 27.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
NHC Forecast Advisory
  • Fri, 10 Oct 2025 20:31:50 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Forecast/Advi... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Karen Forecast/Advisory Number 4
    000
    WTNT21 KNHC 102031
    TCMAT1

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025
    2100 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.5N 30.2W AT 10/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
    34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
    4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.5N 30.2W AT 10/2100Z
    AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 30.6W

    FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 49.4N 29.0W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 53.5N 27.1W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.5N 30.2W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON KAREN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
    IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER
    FQNT50 LFPW.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
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