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Tracking TD9... soon to be Isaias - 2026 Hurricane Season
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NHC Public Advisory
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 20:38:26 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1
000
WTNT34 KNHC 062038
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 95.6W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and the U.S. northern Gulf Coast
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h) and an
east to east-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of
days. By Friday, a turn to the northeast is anticipated. On the
forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of
the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and approach the U.S. northern
Gulf Coast on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on
Thursday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches through Thursday across coastal portions of
the Bay of Campeche with isolated higher amounts possible in the
states of Campeche and western Yucatan.
From Friday through the weekend, the system is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10
inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast extending from
southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nine, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Gusty winds are possible in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula
on Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect the
western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on
Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Forecast Advisory
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 20:38:23 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Nine Forecast/Advisor... - Atlantic Tropical Depression Nine Forecast/Advisory Number 1
000
WTNT24 KNHC 062038
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092026
2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.8W
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.1N 95.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.6N 93.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.1N 91.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 90.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.9N 88.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 34.0N 88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 38.9N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 95.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Discussion
- Tue, 06 Oct 2026 20:39:24 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1
000
WTNT44 KNHC 062039
TCDAT4
Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026
Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Gulf of America has recently developed a
closed circulation, though it might still be elongated. Associated
showers and thunderstorms have also become better organized, and
this system now meets the criteria to be a tropical depression, the
ninth one of the season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based
on a Dvorak classification from TAFB.
The depression has barely moved over the past 6 to 12 hours, with
the initial motion estimated to be 120/1 kt. The cyclone is expected
to track slowly eastward or east-northeastward during the next
couple of days while it moves in the flow near the base of a broad
deep-layer trough, and could bring gusty winds and heavy rains to
the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. By
Friday, a sharp turn to the northeast is expected when a shortwave
trough forms over Texas and a ridge strengthens over the western
Atlantic. This pattern change should cause the system to accelerate
toward the northern Gulf Coast on Friday and into early Saturday.
The NHC track forecast lies near the fast side of the guidance, in
best agreement with the GDMI and ECAI aids. It should be noted that
there is significant uncertainty in where the system makes the
northeast turn and how fast it moves toward the coast. It appears
that the stronger the system gets, the faster it will move toward
the coast given the strength of the deep-layer flow. The NOAA G-IV
jet is currently sampling the environment and special upper-air
soundings are being deployed over the south-central U.S. The
assimilation of these data into the dynamical models should improve
their representation of the current environmental conditions,
ideally yielding more reliable track and intensity guidance.
The environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
strengthening over the next few days, and given that the storm
appears compact, it will likely steadily strengthen during that
time. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a
tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Based
on the environmental conditions and the model guidance, the cyclone
will likely peak in strength before reaching the coast. Although not
seen in the forecast, some weakening seems likely when the storm
nears the Gulf Coast due to an increase in vertical wind shear, but
it is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes
landfall. This forecast is in fair agreement with the consensus
aids, but it should be noted that there are skillful models that are
higher than the current forecast.
Although the storm is expected to be compact for the next few days,
it will likely grow significantly in size, particularly on the
eastern side, when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Therefore,
based on the forecast uncertainty and expected larger size, users
are urged not to focus on the forecast points and stay tuned to
updates.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge
impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and watches could
be required on Wednesday. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
2. The system will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central
U.S. Gulf coast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding,
along with isolated river flooding, will be possible.
3. Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico: The depression is expected to
strengthen and could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to
the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 22.1N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.1N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.6N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 23.1N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 90.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 88.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 34.0N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1800Z 38.9N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
