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NHC Public Advisory
- Sat, 27 Sep 2025 11:50:09 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3a - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3a
000
WTNT34 KNHC 271150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 75.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is
expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the
southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression or storm
later today or tonight. Gradual strengthening is expected
thereafter, with the system forecast to become a hurricane by late
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days... high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning tonight or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas
on Sunday.
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible
in eastern Cuba, and 4 to 8 inches of rain in the Bahamas. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica.
Moisture from the disturbance will lead to a threat of heavy
rainfall well to the north across portions of the Southeast U.S. and
Virginia into early next week which could cause flash, urban, and
river flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with the system, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.
SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Forecast Advisory
- Sat, 27 Sep 2025 08:42:10 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast/... - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast/Advisory Number 3
000
WTNT24 KNHC 270842
TCMAT4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 75.8W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 75.8W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 75.6W
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 76.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.8N 77.0W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.0N 77.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.8N 78.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.2N 78.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 31.5N 78.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 31.5N 77.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 75.8W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NHC Discussion
- Sat, 27 Sep 2025 08:43:08 +0000: Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3 - Atlantic Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
945
WTNT44 KNHC 270843
TCDAT4
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Satellite imagery this morning shows an increase in vorticity at
the western edge of a convective cluster located near the Ragged
Islands in the Bahamas. However, this has not reached the stage
where it could be called a well-defined center of circulation.
Based on this, the system is continued as a potential tropical
cyclone with maximum winds near 30 kt.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/6 kt. Later today,
the system should turn north-northwestward between the subtropical
ridge over the Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the
southeastern United States. The track models are in good
agreement during this part of the system's life, and this portion
of the new forecast track is almost the same as the previous track.
After 72 h, the guidance continues to be quite divergent. Most of
the deterministic and consensus models now show a turn toward the
east caused by Hurricane Humberto passing to the east of the system
and breaking down the ridge. However, the HMON and HAFS-A models
still show landfall in the southeastern United States, as do several
ECMWF and GFS ensemble members. Given the current guidance and the
trends, the new forecast track calls for a slow turn to the
northeast and east after 72 h, but at a much slower forward speed
than most of the guidance. It should be noted that while this
forecast keeps the system offshore, it would still be large enough
and close enough to cause wind and coastal flooding impacts along
the southeastern U.S. coast, as well as heavy rainfall/flooding
concerns in inland areas.
Based on current trends in the satellite imagery and the global
models, the disturbance will likely take another 12-18 h to become
a tropical cyclone. After that happens, strengthening is expected
through 72 h as the system moves through an upper-level wind
environment of moderate shear and strong divergence. The intensity
forecast continues to show the system reaching hurricane strength
in 3-4 days, which is in agreement with the intensity consensus.
Some weakening is expected by 120 h due to shear and possible
interaction with a frontal system approaching from the northwest.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm this
weekend and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
central and northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are
in effect.
2. Rainfall associated with this system is expected to impact
eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the Bahamas through the
weekend, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding.
Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain.
3. There is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall early next
week from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the
southern Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and
river flooding.
4. The system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where
there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Residents in that
area should monitor updates to the forecast and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 21.9N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 27/1800Z 22.5N 76.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 28/0600Z 23.8N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.0N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.8N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 30.2N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 31.5N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 31.5N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
