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Tracking Humberto – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Tracking Humberto – 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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NHC Public Advisory
  • Sat, 27 Sep 2025 08:44:38 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 11 - Atlantic Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 11
    000
    WTNT33 KNHC 270844
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
    500 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

    ...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
    EARLY NEXT WEEK...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.3N 59.3W
    ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

    Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was
    located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 59.3 West. Humberto is
    moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). By early Monday, a
    turn toward the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is
    forecast followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by Monday
    night.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through
    the weekend.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
    (165 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will begin affecting portions of
    the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
    Bermuda this weekend and early next week. These swells are likely to
    cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
    consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Bucci
NHC Forecast Advisory
  • Sat, 27 Sep 2025 08:44:07 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Humberto Forecast/Advisory Numb... - Atlantic Hurricane Humberto Forecast/Advisory Number 11
    000
    WTNT23 KNHC 270844
    TCMAT3

    HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
    0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 59.3W AT 27/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
    64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
    50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
    34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
    4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 105SW 120NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 59.3W AT 27/0900Z
    AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 58.9W

    FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 60.5W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
    34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W
    MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

    FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.4N 64.3W
    MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
    64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
    50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
    34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.8N 66.0W
    MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
    50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
    34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

    FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.3N 67.3W
    MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
    64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
    50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
    34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

    FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.1N 68.1W
    MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
    64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
    50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
    34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.4N 66.5W
    MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
    34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 37.7N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
    50 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 80NW.
    34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 210NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 59.3W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BUCCI
NHC Discussion
  • Sat, 27 Sep 2025 08:45:09 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 11 - Atlantic Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 11
    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 270845
    TCDAT3

    Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
    500 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

    Humberto seems to have paused its meteoric rise for the moment.
    The eye has become smaller and more distorted based on GOES
    satellite imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass showed some evidence
    that the concentric rings mentioned in the previous discussion have
    contracted, indicating an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. The
    microwave images also displayed classic hurricane structure, with
    curved banding in all quadrants and no signs of dry air intrusions.
    The satellite intensity estimates have leveled off overnight, and
    the initial intensity is held at 125 kt, closest to the UW-CIMSS ADT
    of T6.3.

    While internal dynamics may have interrupted Humberto's
    strengthening, the hurricane still has about a day of conducive
    environmental and oceanic conditions to intensify. Some of the
    regional hurricane models show slight strengthening, though most of
    the model guidance suggests Humberto will hold generally steady for
    the next couple of days. By next week, the vertical wind shear is
    expected to increase and induce a gradual weakening trend. As
    Humberto gains latitude, a significant expansion in the surface wind
    field will likely occur while it passes west of Bermuda.
    Phase-space analyses of global model forecasts by day 5 show
    Humberto as an extratropical cyclone, or close to one. The latest
    NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction
    and lies on the high end of the guidance in the short-term.

    The hurricane is moving westward at 5 kt. A subtropical ridge
    centered over the western Atlantic should slowly steer Humberto to
    the west or west-northwest during the next day or so, then turn the
    cyclone to the northwest and north-northwest by early next week. By
    day 4, an amplifying upper-level trough moving out of the Canadian
    Maritimes is expected to rapidly steer Humberto northeastward. The
    NHC track forecast shifted slightly eastward this cycle and is a
    little quicker at days 4 and 5. It lies between the Google DeepMind
    ensemble mean and the previous prediction.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 27/0900Z 22.3N 59.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
    12H 27/1800Z 22.6N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
    24H 28/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
    36H 28/1800Z 24.4N 64.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
    48H 29/0600Z 25.8N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
    60H 29/1800Z 27.3N 67.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
    72H 30/0600Z 29.1N 68.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
    96H 01/0600Z 33.4N 66.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
    120H 02/0600Z 37.7N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Bucci
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